1. #36
    Scrivero
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    Ok cant get the tablet online in the hotel. I give up on trying to use pinnacle tonight, hence no more overs tonight or tails. Got the early goal bets in from coolbet. I will get back to this when i am back home tomorrow.

  2. #37
    Scrivero
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    Ok, the Caps and the Kings games both failed, Caps game ended at 5 goals. The double hence lost too.

    We also lost our two Early goal system bets (1 for 0,5 units and 1 for 1 unit). We had no bets in the tail system.

    Statistics for the systems (more info than normally, as we want to analyze and make minor adjustments):

    Over/Under-system:

    Singles hitting so far: 47-44: +14,31 units, 91 bets with 91 units bet.
    ROI of 15,73 %
    Doubles hitting so far: 3-4 +3,51 units, 7 bets with 3,5 units bet.
    ROI of 100,3 %
    Triples hitting so far: 1-4 +0,58 units, 5 bets with 1,6 units bet (there were two 0,5 unit bets in the beginning).
    ROI of 36,25 %

    System total: +18,40 units =96,1 units bet.
    ROI Total: 19,15 %


    1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
    +14,31 units (singles), +18,40 units (singles and parlays)
    ROI for singles: 15,73 %, ROI Total 19,15 %.

    2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
    Record: 4-4, +8,25 units, 8 bets with 5,5 units bet (three 1 unit plays, five 0,5 unit plays.
    ROI of 150 %

    3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
    Record: 6-1, +5,04 units =7 bets with 6,5 units bet (there was one 0,5 unit bet, others were 1 unit bets)
    ROI of 77,5 %

    4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

    All systems total: +31,69 units. 108,1 units bet.
    ROI for all systems in Total: 29,32 %


    Do tell if you spot some mistakes. I tried to check everything carefully but am a bit tired after the weekend's trip.

    Picks for tonight in the next post, because the games are on very soon. Analysis of these statistics in the post after that.

  3. #38
    Scrivero
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    Tonight's bets:

    Over/Under-system, 1 unit each:

    1 unit each:
    1. Kings-Caps Over 5,5 +148
    2. Oilers-Canadiens Over 5,5 +132
    3. Flames-Rangers Under 5 +179

    Triple of all three with odds +1478.

    Yes, there is an Under 5 in there, will explain in the next post where I analyze the statistics and explain the adjustments.

    2. Early goal system, 0,5 units each:
    1. Kings-Caps, bet on the team that gives a goal during the first 10 minutes.
    2. Oilers-Canadiens, bet on the team that gives a goal during the first 10 minutes.
    3. Flames-Rangers, bet on the team that gives a goal during the first 10 minutes.

    3. Tail system, 0,5-1 units each:

    Will be posted in the Tail system thread very soon, in here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...take-cash.html

  4. #39
    Scrivero
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    Analyzing the statistics:

    1. ROI of Singles is high, should be at ca 11,25 % (in the long run at least, if our original assumption of games being coin flips of Over 5,5 or Under 5,5 / Over 4,5 or Under 4,5 was right)
    - I do think we were wrong with the 4,5 Over or Under being coin flips. I still think the 5,5 Over or Under are coin flips. We are also getting better odds at Pinnacle so they do not even need to be coin flips anymore to get e.g. our goal ROI of 11,25 %.
    - We left the 4,5 line games out, but we are bringing some of them (and 5 line games) back. WHY? Because we can now get much better odds at Pinnacle and e.g. today Under 5 for the Rangers game was +179. Dont need to be anywhere near coin flips to make our goal profit (I will calculate the exact chance of going under 4,5 (or in this case under 5 with 5 being a push) later).
    2. ROI of Doubles and Triples are high, although the sample size is quite small. Again, with better odds on Pinnacle we can actually expect a higher ROI than before (but lower than the ones so far, as we have been lucky with hitting the doubles and the triples, it seems).
    3. ROI of our other systems are high, although a very small sample size in both. We will keep them as they are though. We might want to change the Early goal system to Money Line at some point though, we will see.

    Adjustments to systems and why:

    Higher threshold for +odds the Over (and Under) games.
    - We have been lucky to get such a high ROI for the singles with such "low" +odds. The limit was +115 before with average being ca +125.
    - Now that we constantly get odds between +130 and +170 we are gonna bring the line higher, maybe to +130 or more.
    - WHY? Because we do not want to play all the games. Even if we could, we dont want to.
    - WHY? Because we have other systems we want to play as well (like tonight other systems' plays (for NHL) are at least for 4,5 units with a three game night. 7,7 units altogether with our Over/Under system bets. Can be 8,2 or 8,7 if the Early goal system can be implemented in the other two games of tonight too. Ca 10 units with other sports for the Tail system.
    - On a 12 game night we would probably get to around 15-20 units of play for the night with 1 unit bets. Thats way too much right now. In the future, sure, maybe, but not now. You can ask me why and I will try think of a good answer

    Question: How do we choose which games to play for the Over/Under system in the future?
    Answer: We really dont know yet. Its easy on a 3 game night with such high odds to just play them all, but not sure what happens on an 11 game night like next tuesday. We probably will choose e.g. 2 highest +odds for Overs and 2 highest +odds for Under 5 and if there is no suitable game for under 5 we will then choose 1 game only for Under 4,5 (maybe in regulation).

    About the Early goal system:
    - I know this has worked tremendously well when looking at the stats but we have kinda forgotten why we started it and what the original rule was:
    Why we started it: Because sometimes a team (in early games (just because I am awake then, hopefully there is a better reason too such as "the favorites start bad in afternoon games")) gives up an early goal just to win (in regulation). Odds are very ++++ for these situations.
    Original rule was: Play only favorites or teams in an even match.

    What we have done in the system is that we have played all games, dogs or not, to win if they give an early goal, like the Kings tonight. There is probably a big chance for it to go Overtime if they even come back from that goal. The odds are not THAT much higher than with even/favorite teams though, so we might return to the original rule, maybe.

    Thats it, cant think of anything else.

    - All comments are highly appreciated!

    - We want to keep improving the systems but we dont want to take out by accident the things that make the systems work.
    - We want of course good results but more important is that the systems seem to work well and have a good chance of working well.
    - We dont want to be blinded by good results. We might be up huge in the systems but it could just be massive luck so far. We dont want to just stay where we are if we seem to run into some trouble and doubts with the systems.

  5. #40
    Scrivero
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    An Idea:
    If the amount of units played each night will go up to max 15-20 units because of the improved odds, should I then just bet 0,5 units per Over/Under match instead of 1 unit? That would bring us down to maybe 10-15 units on the best nights. Should I bet even less? Not sure if I want to do that... Still a bit too many and I also want to broaden the range of the Early goal system to AHL games so that would take more units per night too.

    Any more suggestions or ideas?

    Edit: We did the first test of our Early goal system now for AHL with Syracuse Crunch with them being down 1 goal in the first 10 minutes. We will not do the Rangers game on the Early goal system tonight. For one, I wont have the time to follow the game live today and secondly, I gotta learn to not play all games that could be a part of the systems, because I wont always have the chance to play all games. Like yesterday, when I was in the spa, was super annoying to try get stuff work. I dont think I will be doing any more games from trips, unless I have a laptop with me and good internet.
    Last edited by Scrivero; 02-05-17 at 12:35 PM.

  6. #41
    Scrivero
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    RESULTS:
    Tonight's bets:
    Over/Under-system, 1 unit each:

    1 unit each:
    1. Kings-Caps Over 5,5 +148 LOSS
    2. Oilers-Canadiens Over 5,5 +132 LOSS
    3. Flames-Rangers Under 5 +179 LOSS

    Triple (of 0,2 units) of all three with odds +1478. LOSS

    Caps and Rangers games looked mighty fine after 2 periods. Oh well.

    1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
    +11,31 units (singles), +15,20 units (singles and parlays)

    2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
    Record: 4-6, +7,25 units

    3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
    Record: 7-3, +3,68 units

    4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

    All systems total: +26,13 units.

    Analyzing some more in the next post.

  7. #42
    Scrivero
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    We can officially hit these highest odds games too. But we need to check that we are still doing this system the way we started it. Some checking up and testing some things, here are my findings:

    1. Nothing would be playable today according to Coolbet (the original system, betting the Over or Under for a game that has either option at least +115). These would be the visible lines that they have put, which I noticed not to be the only options the same time as I moved to Pinnacle.
    2. The optional lines on Coolbet have some interesthing results:
    - Under 4,5 (reg) is +113 on Sabres-Devils (which would have been our system bet if it was +115 or more). Over 5,5 for the same game is +160 on Coolbet.
    - Over 5,5 for the Leafs-Islanders is -115, while Under 4,5 (reg) is +195.
    - Over 5,5 for the StL-Philly is +105 while Under 4,5 (reg) is +160.

    Lets just check those bets on Pinnacle:
    - Sabres-Devils Over 5,5 +164, Under 4,5 +167 (Coolbet was +113, more comparable Under 4,75 +128 on Pinnacle, Under 5 was -104)
    - Leafs-Islanders Over 5,5 -120, Under 4,5 +371 (Coolbet was +195, more comparable Under 4,75 +305 on Pinnacle, Under 5 was +238)
    - StL-Philly Over 5,5 +107, Under 4,5 +270 (Coolbet was +160, more comparable Under 4,75 was +217 on Pinnacle, Under 5 was +164).

    So what did we get from all this analysis?


    Well, when we were playing the Coolbet Overs and Unders it was actually showing the more probable of the two options (that is Over 5,5 vs Under 4,5). So we were playing less games than we could have, but apparently we were playing the more probable options still.

    What do we do now? We really dont know... I really feel like playing those huge odds for the Over 5,5s and for the Under 4,5/4,75 and even Under 5. That is messing with the original system though. We are hence a bit baffled, what should we do? Had we played against our original system from the beginning, as in playing just the opposites, we would have gotten quite close to our current results. That is because we would have gotten much better odds than what we got, even if we had hit a bit less games.

    CONCLUSION: The less games end at directly 5 goals, the more we win, regardless of if we bet the right side of Over/Under on a given game. If we want to include also Over or Under 5 or even Over or Under 4,75 or 5,25, we are giving a lot of juice, of course we would get some pushes and half pushes that way.

    One more check: The full season of 2011-2012, all games, all +odd Under/Over 5:
    - Nah, could not do it tonight. I have all the data but the excel just would not arrange the data as I wanted. Short look into those numbers though showed that there was a big number of games where the line was 5,5 or 5 and the Under had +odds and the game would have ended with Under 4,5 too.
    - Similar, but not to the same extent, pattern was shown with game with like 5 that ender Over. They also ended Over 5,5 very often, giving muchhhhh better odds than the Over 5 only.

    What do we do now? Hmm.. We will at least decrease our stakes until we figure out what we want to do. So that it wont matter so much if we happen to play the opposite of what we "should" play. Picks coming soon.

    In the next post I will also tell what we will try right now.

  8. #43
    Scrivero
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    Today's bets, 0,5 units each game:
    1. Blues-Flyers Under 4,5 +270 (Over 5,5 was +107)
    2. Leafs-Islanders Under 4,5 +371 (Over 5,5 was -120)
    3. Sabres-Devils Under 4,5 +167 (Over 5,5 was +164)

    Triple of all three with 0,2 units +4247

    The odds are huge compared to the U4,5 odds we were getting on Coolbet. This is because they were Regulation-bets, meaning that we would win if the game ended 2-2. Other scores of Under 4,5 would work for both.

    We will try this time to bet the highest odds that we can get for a game with Over 5,5 or Under 4,5. We will continue the analysis to find what we will continue with. I will also get that massive excel organised and analyze this more. We probably will try tomorrow to bet e.g. 3 highest odds Under 4,5 games and 3 highest of Over 5,5 games.

  9. #44
    sedwards86
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    Unders got us paid tonight, my brother

  10. #45
    scsports
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    Great work gain tonight Scrivero!

  11. #46
    Scrivero
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    Thanks guys!

    RESULTS:
    Today's bets, 0,5 units each game:

    1. Blues-Flyers Under 4,5 +270 WIN!!
    2. Leafs-Islanders Under 4,5 +371 LOSS
    3. Sabres-Devils Under 4,5 +167 WIN!!

    Triple of all three with 0,2 units +4247 LOSS

    Profit of +1,485 units

    1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
    +12,995 units (singles), +16,485 units (singles and parlays)

    2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
    Record: 4-6, +7,25 units

    3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
    Record: 7-5, +2,68 units

    4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

    All systems total: +26,62 units.


    Today's picks coming soon.

  12. #47
    Scrivero
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    OK, yesterday's conclusion was the we will play 3 biggest unders and 3 biggest overs. We will do that today.

    If the 3 biggest unders seem impossible to hit, then we will take out the biggest (+300 games).

    If you are wondering where the Toronto game is... well, the smallest Pinnacle offers for it is Under 5,25, so its a no go in this system.

    Today's bets, 0,5 units each:
    1. Wild-Jets Under 4,5 +336
    2. Flames-Penguins Under 4,5 +330
    3. Blues-Senators Under 4,5 +274
    4. LA-TB Over 5,5 +162
    5. Sharks-Sabres Over 5,5 +144
    6. Canucks-Predators Over 5,5 +140


    Just to compare what our original Coolbet-system would have given us (scary to follow, but we have to be fearless to see whether we should go back to that somehow) or to combine them or to use them take out some bets (if they give us the opposite bets on both).

    WE DID NOT PLAY THESE, JUST FOR FOLLOW:


    1. Sharks-Sabres Over 5,5 +135 (the same as our Pinnacle bet but with lower odds)
    2. Caps-Hurricanes Over 5,5 +125 (not on our Pinnacle bets)
    3. LA-TB Under 4,5 +125 (Over 5,5 on our Pinnacle bets with +144)
    4. Stars Leafs Under 5,5 +115 (not on our Pinnacle bets)
    5. Canucks-Predators Under 4,5 +120 (Over 5,5 on our Pinnacle bets with +140)
    6. Montreal-Colorado Over 5,5 +125 (not on our Pinnacle bets)

    Pretty interesting and scary to see that the games would have been different but also that some games would have been Under instead of Over. I dont want to see those Coolbet bets hitting 6/6 The odds are much much higher on our Pinnacle bets though.

    We will check tomorrow how both options did. REMEMBER: We only played the Pinnacle bets, NOT the possible Coolbet bets. So please dont congratulate me for the Coolbet bets hitting I am actually scared but anxious (in a good way). Maybe this test will show that the Coolbet system is the way to go (with the Overs at least).

  13. #48
    cooperman
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    Good stuff brother. Keep killing it

  14. #49
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooperman View Post
    Good stuff brother. Keep killing it
    Thanks man! Lets hope we kill it tonight too. Good stuff in your thread too man, you are rocking it.

  15. #50
    Scrivero
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    RESULTS:
    Today's bets, 0,5 units each:

    1. Wild-Jets Under 4,5 +336 LOSS 4-2
    2. Flames-Penguins Under 4,5 +330 LOSS 3-2 OT
    3. Blues-Senators Under 4,5 +274 6-0
    4. LA-TB Over 5,5 +162 LOSS 0-5
    5. Sharks-Sabres Over 5,5 +144 WIN!! 4-5 OT
    6. Canucks-Predators Over 5,5 +140 WIN!! 2-4

    -0,58 units. This was VERY good round even if we lost. All games were close, even the Unders were very close, except for the Jets game. Even the Toronto under would have hit if there was a Under 4,5 option for it on Pinnacle. Would have been HUGE odds.

    Lets check how the Coolbet system would have done:

    WE DID NOT PLAY THESE, JUST FOR FOLLOW:

    1. Sharks-Sabres Over 5,5 +135 WIN!!
    2. Caps-Hurricanes Over 5,5 +125 LOSS
    3. LA-TB Under 4,5 +125 LOSS
    4. Stars Leafs Under 5,5 +115 WIN!!
    5. Canucks-Predators Under 4,5 +120 LOSS
    6. Montreal-Colorado Over 5,5 +125 LOSS

    -0,75 units.

    Hmm, we could use this info somehow. BUT, we are VERY pleased to see that all games still have a chance even the biggest Unders and biggest Overs! We will continue with this for sure! We will have to see how the system will end up, but we will certainly play the biggest odds.

    1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
    +12,415 units (singles), +15,905 units (singles and parlays)

    2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
    Record: 4-6, +7,25 units

    3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
    Record: 8-5, +3,475 units

    4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

    All systems total: +26,835 units.

    Our goal right now is to test and develop especially the Over/Under system so that we can again start putting full 1 unit bets and to start betting even more games. Right now we will play 3 biggest unders and 3 biggest over.
    Last edited by Scrivero; 02-08-17 at 12:10 AM.

  16. #51
    Scrivero
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    Damn, my post disappeared.

    Here in a nutshell:
    - I checked the database of all season 2011-2012 matches for all the amount of goals for each match.
    - There might be some errors as I have not used such databases before.
    - There might be errors because each match was listed 4 times, as it should be listed just 2 times (because all matches of all teams are listed after each team, hence having the same match listed 2 times).
    - Correct me if these numbers are off.
    - I will reimport the database and check all these numbers later.

    Here are the findigns:

    - 1316 matchs
    - 406 matches with 4 goals or less (no 2-2 matches included)
    - 744 matches with 5 goals or less (2-2 matches included)
    - 337 matches with exactly 5 goals (2-2 matches included)
    - 131 matches went to OT/SO with 2-2
    - 572 matches with 6 or more goals

    - 30,9 % of matches ended with 4 goals or less. Hence we really should get huge odds (at least ca +220 per match, I will calculate the exact odds late) for Under 4,5 if we play them.
    - 40,8 % of matches ended with 4 goals or less in regulation (so 2-2 scores included). This would mean our Coolbet regulation Under 4,5 bets. Will calculate the exact needed odds for these later. A quick calculation in my head gives odds of ca +152.
    - 38,9 % of all matches that ended with 5 goals had the exact score of 2-2 (before OT/SO). Need to calculate how big odds we should get for e.g. under 4,5 when compared to under 5,5 or under 5 (or under 4,75 or under 5,25).
    - 43,5 % of matches ended with 6 goals or more. Gonna calculate the odds we need to get to play a match profitably. Quick calculation in my heads gives ca +135.

    So these stats are brought in to revise our original "each match is a coin flip between ending Over or Under 5,5 and OVer or Under 4,5". This is of course not true, but we need to check how untrue it is. We still think that any of the matches we play can end up Under 4,5 or Over 5,5. It is just a matter of how often it happens overall and how big of odds we need. We need to check if we can still make money with this even with this type of stats taken into consideration.

    AND, if someone would like to calculate those things for me, that I said I will calculate later, I would be FOREVER grateful! I can do some maths and statistics but I cant always trust myself with it. Just gotta figure out too how to calculate those things that I want to calculate e.g. "How big do the odds need to be to play an Under 4,5 if 30,9 % of all matches end at 4 goals or less". It is a simple formula for sure but brain is not functioning enough right now, too much excel and statistics.

  17. #52
    Scrivero
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    Ok, the formula must be this simple:

    100 % / x % chance of certain score = the odds we need to get to break even.

    - 30,9 % of matches ended with 4 goals or less (no 2-2 included):
    -> 100 % / 30,9 % = 3,23 = +223 to break even.
    - 40,8 % of matches ended with 4 goals or less in regulation (so 2-2 scores included) for possible Coolbet regulation bets:
    -> 100 % / 40,8 % = 2,45 = +145 to break even.
    - 43,5 % of matches ended with 6 goals or more:
    -> 100 % / 43,5 % = 2,3 = +130 to break even.

    I dont feel like calculating the comparison to having e.g. O/U 5 that would give a push at 5 or 4,75 and 5.25 that would give half a push etc. Someone who could calculate those for me? Please do if you are feeeling bored

    So with Under 4,5 we need +223 to break even. We can surely get much more and we have already and the matches have all been very close. Totally plausible to keep the unders.

    With the Under 4,5 in regulation we need +145 to break even. I will have to see the Coolbet odds on the next big rounds.

    With Over 5,5 we need +130 to break even. We have found ca +150 so far with Pinnacle's biggest Over odds. Very doable.

    So it is of course not about breaking even. Then again, every small +++ in odds over those mean a lot. Need to calculate again how much I need to be over those lines to make a profit of 0,1 units per match/0,2 units/0,5/1. Then we can just pick our games based on where we are aiming and what we think is possible.

    Ok, enough calculations for now. Will continue later tonight or tomorrow. Only one game tonight, will see it if is playable. Will use those found U4,5 and O5,5 minimum odds today.

  18. #53
    Scrivero
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    Looks like tonights only game Chicago-Minnesota is not gonna be playable. Over 5,5 has +113 on Pinnacle and +120 on Coolbet. Under 4,5 (reg) has +140 on Coolbet and not announced on Pinnacle yet. Will be at ca +200 on Pinnacle and as we saw from the calculations above, the odds are not gonna be enough in any of these categories.

    I will check the Under 4,5 on Pinnacle later, but I dont think we have a chance to play tonight.

    Edit. PInnacle Under 4,5 odds came: +265. I took it, as our break even point was +223. Lets say we hit that +265 odds match 30,9 % of the time (per calculations above): 3,65 (means +265) x 30,9 % = 112,785 %. Meaning that we would make a ROI of 12,785 in the long run with those bets. Please tell me if I am screwing up the maths in that one, cant think that the above 100 % could mean anything else than getting 112,785 % on my money, meaning that an investment of e.g. 1 unit would give us 0,12785 units of profits, giving a ROI of 12,785 %. In the start of the system we aimed that ROI of 11,25 %, so thats even above that. Lets see how this starts flowing in the run. I have a good feeling about this in any case

    This stuff certainly was easier to think and calculate when we considered each game a coin flip and had average odds of 2,25 for all games in the long run. Now that we have a different percentages for different results, calculating the possible ROI is not that straight forward. Still pretty easy, but its now more about seeing what odds we can get and go from there.

    If we calculate the other possibilitiss, mainly Over 5,5s, if we want a ROI of ca 11,25 %, we need to get odds of: 112,5 % / 43,5 % = 2,586 = +158,6. Yesterday our Over 5,5 odds were +162, +144 and +140. Hmm, starting look like it will be the most difficult to get the right value from the overs. I might have to do so that I will think about certain night's bets of Over 5,5 as a group that needs to have an average of minimum +158,6 or close to it. We will see.

    By the way, the Under 4,5 in regulation (Coolbet) needs to be min +175,7. I have seen those for sure. I think we will get playable stuff from there too. Just need to decide how we want to do if we have a chance to play both the Under 4,5 Reg and the normal Under 4,5. Maybe we decide based on which one has more value.

    And we dont always "need" to have ROI of minimum 11,25, but I think its a good goal. We can lower it in the future possibly, but right now lets try to keep our goal there.

    To show again what we are playing tonight, 0,5 units on:
    Chicago-Minnesota Under 4,5 +265.

    By the way, these minimum odd limits might change when we calculate the 2011-2012 season again and when we calculate other seasons too.
    Last edited by Scrivero; 02-08-17 at 10:37 AM.

  19. #54
    MJ4thQuarter92
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    What's up, Scrivero. Had a bump in the road but back at it now. Not doing anymore chasing, just gonna look for the best spots to bet TT's

  20. #55
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ4thQuarter92 View Post
    What's up, Scrivero. Had a bump in the road but back at it now. Not doing anymore chasing, just gonna look for the best spots to bet TT's
    Sounds good man! When I saw your analysis about yesterday's only game I was like, damn, my Under 4,5 aint hitting tonight Gonna tail you with some picks for sure too.

    I did however tail your Sabres pick tonight, sounded very good.

  21. #56
    MJ4thQuarter92
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    I got an email notifying me of your friends request, but when I click on the link, it just takes me to the site's home page. We can exchange email once I can PM on here. Have to get to 40 posts before they allow me.

  22. #57
    Scrivero
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    Not sure if I should bet the U 4,5 in regulation or the normal U 4,5 if both fulfill the minimum odds. Need to think.

    To show clearly what our lines at the moment are for all bets (what the odds need to be at minimum for us to play them):


    Under 4,5 bets: +264,8
    Under 4,5 Regulation bets: +175,8
    Over 5,5 bets: +158,7


    These numbers are for getting ROI of 12,5 %. I calculated with this by mistake in the examples above. I wanna keep it still, sounds plausible, hopefully.

    I will post the picks in 2 hours.

  23. #58
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ4thQuarter92 View Post
    I got an email notifying me of your friends request, but when I click on the link, it just takes me to the site's home page. We can exchange email once I can PM on here. Have to get to 40 posts before they allow me.
    Sounds good man

  24. #59
    Scrivero
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    Calculations for tonight:

    The possibility of each scenario and the odds we need to play a game:

    u4,5 30,9 % +264,8
    u4,5 reg 40,8 % +175,8
    o5,5 43,5 % +158,7

    Over 5,5 for tonight:
    Kings-Panthers +180 ROI 21,8 %
    Canadiens-Coyotes +149 ROI 8,315 %
    Ducks-Sabres +143 ROI 5,7 %
    Average ROI: 11,94 %
    - As we mentioned in a previous post, we will play even lesser ROI games than 12,5 %, if the average ROI for the Over 5,5 is close to 12,5 % in all games. At least we will do this in the beginning.

    Calculating ROI for U4,5 (Pinnacle) vs U4,5reg (Coolbet):


    Pinnacle:
    Stars-Senators +344 ROI 37,2 %
    StlLuis-Toronto +339 ROI 35,65 %
    Penguins-Avalanche +272 ROI 14,95 %

    Coolbet:
    Stars-Senators +195 ROI 20,36 %
    StlLouis-Toronto +210 ROI 26,48 %
    Penguins-Avalanche +190 18,32 %

    Best unders/what we will play:
    Stars-Senators 2,95 +344 ROI 37,2 % Pinnacle
    StLouis-Toronto +339 ROI 35,65 % Pinnacle
    Penguins-Avalanche +190 18,32 % Coolbet (reg)

    Our plays for tonight, 0,5 units each:
    1. Kings-Panthers Over 5,5 +180
    2. Canadiens-Coyotes Over 5,5 +149
    3. Ducks-Sabres Over 5,5 +143
    4. Stars-Senators Under 4,5 +344
    5. StLouis-Toronto Under 4,5 +339
    6. Penguins-Avalanche Under 4,5 (in regulation, 2-2 after regulation is a win) +190

    So that is how I calculate the bets from now on. Will not post the calculations next time, this was just to show how I do it.

    Good luck to us!

  25. #60
    Scrivero
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    Gonna use my database to calculate whether the year 2011-2012 would have been profitable with this system. The database shows the final lines for O/U as well as the line (normally 5 or 5,5). So I have to check how many Over 5,5 had big enough odds. Have to check how many Over 5 would have actually been Over 5,5 and need to estimate the odds for the Over 5,5. Need to check how many Under 5,5 would have actually been Under 4,5 and also Under 4,5 in Reg. Need to estimate the odds for both.

    Made some calculations on the odds (to help with the estimates:
    What odds are:
    Under 5,5 is Under 4,5: (when an U5,5 would have actually been U4,5)
    -161 (U5,5) = +190 (U4,5)
    -135 = +183
    -116 = +260
    -120 = +253
    -130 = +199
    -148 = +203

    Under 5 is Under 4,5: (a game with line 5 for under would have been an under 4,5)
    +112 (U5) = +190 (U4,5)
    +116 = +183
    +162 = +260
    +154 = +253
    +126 = +199
    +125 = +203

    Over 5 is Over 5,5: (A game has a line of Over 5 but would have been Over 5,5)
    -124 (O5) = +146 (O5,5)
    -137 = +122
    -197 = +105
    -148 = +118
    -137 = +135
    -185 = +109

    Under 5,5 vs Under 5 vs Under 4,5
    -161 (U5,5) vs +112 (U5) vs +190 (U4,5)
    -135 vs +116 vs +183
    -115 vs +162 vs +260
    -120 vs +154 vs +253
    -130 vs +126 vs +199
    -148 vs +125 vs +203

    One could probably easily create an exact formula of what odds will be what if they are changed from e.g. U5,5 to U4,5. Too tired to think about the formula, probably is not very difficult. Someone do it for me please I would be a happy camper tomorrow.

    - Next step: Formula.
    - After that: Check 2011-2012 scores and see how many games fall to each category with certain minimum odds, as in how many games ended with U4,5 and what would have been the odds.
    - Calculate how many games would have had the right odds to be played even if they did not end that way, meaning that if a game ended with O5,5 with +105 the U4,5 would have been 260. This is to see how many playable games there actually were during the season and how many of those games hit it. This will give us an even better idea on how big of a % of games with certain minimum odds actually hit.

    For that last part we need some more comparables:

    Under 5 is Over 5,5 (the result is Under 5, Over 5,5 would have been)
    +112 (U5) = +146 (O5,5)
    +116 = +122
    +162 = +105
    +154 = +118
    +126 = +135
    +125 = +109

    Over 5 is Under 4,5 (the result is Over 5, Under 4,5 would have been)
    -124 (O5) = +190 (U4,5)
    -137 = +183
    -197 = +260
    -148 = +253
    -137 = +199
    -185 = +203

    Over 5,5 is Under 4,5 (the result is Over 5,5, Under 4,5 would have been)
    +146 (O5,5) = +190 (U4,5)
    +122 = +183
    +105 = +260
    +118 = +253
    +135 = +199
    +109 = +203

    I think I am going to the right direction with back testing this system. Someone tell me if my direction is all wrong

  26. #61
    TheCaliforniaKid
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    If someone tells you that youre headed in the wrong direction, I sure hope they do it very nicely. LOL Looks like you put alot of time and work into this. My online books dont allow the extra half goal so I'm just pulling for the rest of you, if this system pays off. Best of success!!

  27. #62
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCaliforniaKid View Post
    If someone tells you that youre headed in the wrong direction, I sure hope they do it very nicely. LOL Looks like you put alot of time and work into this. My online books dont allow the extra half goal so I'm just pulling for the rest of you, if this system pays off. Best of success!!
    Haha thanks man! Yea it has been quite a lot of work. I hope that the work load gets less and less while we approach the final system.

    Tonight was a great success, could have easily been an even bigger one!

    RESULTS:

    Our plays for tonight, 0,5 units each:
    1. Kings-Panthers Over 5,5 +180 WIN!! (6-3)
    2. Canadiens-Coyotes Over 5,5 +149 WIN!! (5-4 OT)
    3. Ducks-Sabres Over 5,5 +143 WIN!! (5-2)
    4. Stars-Senators Under 4,5 +344 LOSS (2-3)
    5. StLouis-Toronto Under 4,5 +339 WIN!! (2-1 OT)
    6. Penguins-Avalanche Under 4,5 (in regulation, 2-2 after regulation is a win) +190 LOSS (4-1)

    4/6 right, profit of +3,055 units! Thats pretty awesome considering that we only bet 3 units. The 2 other unders were veryyyy close too.

    Totals so far (including previous night's Minnesota-game and yesterday's tails:
    1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
    +14,970 units (singles), +18,460 units (singles and parlays)

    2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
    Record: 4-6, +7,25 units

    3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
    Record:11-7, +3,536 units

    4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

    All systems total: +29,451 units.
    Last edited by Scrivero; 02-10-17 at 09:50 AM.

  28. #63
    scsports
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    Nice job last night again Scrivero!

  29. #64
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by scsports View Post
    Nice job last night again Scrivero!
    Thanks for the support man!

  30. #65
    v0id125
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    Scrivero, Well done man

  31. #66
    Scrivero
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    Two games tonight, had to see if they are playable and to compare between U4,5 (reg) (Coolbet) and U4,5 (Pinnacle):

    TB-Wild U4,5 +145 (reg) vs +235
    ROI: -0,04 % vs. +3,51 %
    Chicago-Winnipeg U4,5 +170 (reg) vs +326
    ROI: +10,16 % vs. +31,634 %

    Chicago-game is an easy U4,5 and on Pinnacle. TB-game.. negative ROI on Coolbet, +3,51 % on Pinnacle.. ugh.. I know had the system of taking e.g. all 3 O 5,5 games and using the average ROI as a measurement of playing. I will bring it to unders as well, but I will make the playable line of a certain game (even when combined with other games) +5 %. Not sure if I want to keep it that low either, really dont know. I dont want to bring my possible ROI down as the numbers that I have to calculate that could very well be too "positive" as they are only based on one season, the 2011-2012 season. And I have not yet backtested whether that season would have even been +units with those numbers. So the TB-game is a no play.

    Tonight's game, 0,5 units:
    1. Blackhawks-Jets U4,5 +326

    Good luck to us!

  32. #67
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by v0id125 View Post
    Scrivero, Well done man
    Thanks, appreciated

  33. #68
    spiffking
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    Thank you for doing the work...tailing..BOL

  34. #69
    Scrivero
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    Quote Originally Posted by spiffking View Post
    Thank you for doing the work...tailing..BOL
    You are very welcome And good luck, tonight's pick feels extra good!

  35. #70
    w@lt
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    Very cool. I have to check if Nitrogen offers purchasing points for hockey.

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