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Just got some serious Vegas inside
Apparently, Dallas Stars are winning the Stanley Cup this June.
11/4 to win West & 11/2 to win Cup right now. (4/21/16).
{I have been on Anaheim for quite a while now, have a future on it as well. {Not off to the best start}.} Going to hedge accordingly.
Just relaying the message boys.
Lol. Dallas is not winning the cup. Penguins are winning. Crosby is on a quiet mission,
Originally Posted by lakerboy
Pittsburgh is winning the East. Not the Cup.
I 1,000,000% concur
SBR
Poster of
Year
2011
Porky how many sharks have you gone through in Vegas?
Dallas Pitt would be a great Cup
I don't know Chop, from a market perspective I am seeing other reasons, and expecting more to come, to get the Dallas future. There could be a general "sense" out there, which would no doubt permeate Vegas, to pick up Dallas. At +5.5 it seems almost a sucker bet at this point.
I can tell you that at least two things are happening here. First, money is being driven towards Dallas.
The second factor is a little stealthier. A good portion of that money (which would be entering the market anyway) isn’t just being “driven” to a side. Because it will likely enter the marketplace anyway, it is effectively being taken from somewhere.
My metrics lead me to believe that the money is being “taken” from what would otherwise be bets on St. Louis. Now, coincidentally, or not, unless we see an unlikely series turn around, St. Louis will play Dallas in the next round.
It’s also worthy to note that much of that money, which is influential to say the least, is still making a judgement call here, that is if they are not still holding out. Soon many of those participants will either get what they are looking for and pull the trigger or simply remain sidelined until we get closer.
Some forms of influential money will bite on early information that becomes irrelevant as the issue draws closer. In effect, they are making a judgement call most big money tries to avoid. The books know this and see it with futures often.
One goal of the sharper books can be to “get some of the money back” as some of this money is forced to hedge on earlier bad bets. Further, the markets can time this money with other reasons to drive money and the books can really take a position. This too occurs often.
There is still a lot of information to be gained, but perhaps St. Louis is in a better position to come out of the West. When we are dealing with lines close to 3 to one or even 5.5 to 1, it can often be a good idea to go where you know money isn’t going.
Perhaps St. Louis is a good deal now or perhaps more can be made on a game by game basis.
It seems like the next series could be a good one, going down to the final game.
I doubt that we will see a game in that series have the Blues, or the Stars for that matter, opening at better than -180,-190 during the next series.
What do you think the books will open that series price at? -145?
I'll give you a list of teams that won't win the cup...
Pens
Ducks
Nashville
Philly
Minny
Sharks
Detroit
Tampa
Dallas
Very slight chance to win
NYI/Florida
St louis
Should be eliminated but will win if they come back
NYR
Chicago
LA
Washington...as rarely as favorites win...this might happen...
I have big odds futures on everyone except Washington
I have Dallas 50-1....good value i'd say at the time..
That's a hell of a ticket to have today for a 6/1 right now in the first round, which is not even over yet.
Last edited by PorkChop; 04-21-16 at 02:48 PM.
You're wrong, and also sound very ignorant.
Check back in here in June.
I wouldn't listen to this clown. Same guy told me "ducks had zero chance of losing first round" when I picked Nashville to advance.
Stars will not even make it to the conference finals. They're lucky they're playing Minnesota in the first round.
Enough to have gotten your attention.
Your input and thoughts are completely irrelevant to me.
I am bringing light to a good money making opportunity in short time.
Please don't post in any of my forums again.
I think this is the years Sharks finally make it...
Ducks/Sharks to face Stars in Western Conference Finals would be great.
At one point, bettors like you, will likely be betting (hedging) the other way...similar to what I was mentioning earlier, in some games.
I would expect those hedging opportunities to be at terrible prices. Which brings us to this post...
I doubt either team will be heavily favored for the series as well. This is tough to speculate on but a St. Louis win could easily make St. Louis a favorite the whole time. Dallas backers will eat that shit up while St. Louis backers, and those hedging out Dallas futures will be getting the worst of it.
In this case, St Louis future holders will also be eating up plus money, buying Dallas to hedge.
This kind of market speculation can be very dangerous; it's tough enough to get an edge game by game, much less try to predict future lines and series prices.
St. Louis still seems to look better from that contrarian market perspective but at 3-1 to get out of the west and 5.5-1 to win it all may not be as good as picking up St. Louis in the key spots to win games combined with the series price against Dallas.
In my opinion the odds could end up being short either way and there may be no reason jump in so soon.
Like the NBA, it seems like these playoffs take forever.
He is part of who dat nation chop...nothing more needs to be said...
I dont think Dallas has the defense and strong enough goaltending to make it. Plus Seguin's health seems to be in question with him in and out of the lineup
Hockey is on the verge of bankruptcy.
Updated odds:
4/21/16. Westgate Superbook.
Washington 7/2
Dallas 5/1
San Jose 6/1
Pittsburgh 6/1
St.Louis 6/1
Nashville 14/1.
Who do you like?
I didn't know you had your own "forums". Keep posting great fade material like "ducks have zero chance of losing" and the only thing I'll post in your "threads" is a big "thank you". Have a great night!
Yeah, but you're the same guy who lost like 50k points one night in the casino and then made a post begging SBR John to give you some back. Soooo....not really sure your judgement can be trusted.
SBR
Poster of
Year
2011
Should we do something with this inside information
My sources show St. Louis being the same as Dallas earlier and now is on the other side of 5.5 to 1.
This is slight confirmation to what I was saying earlier and could contribute to St Louis being the underdog against Dallas. That is, if that series occurs.
Where are you at chump?
You just made yourself look like a complete clown.
Want to tell me again now, how the Ducks won't lose the first round and the WCF won't be Anaheim/Dallas?
You sad little girl. Im sure your now nowhere to be found.
Last edited by PorkChop; 04-24-16 at 08:30 AM.
I'm sure you had the same sentiments when it was 2-0 Nashville going home you dipshit (PS there's still another game tomorrow night). And the stars will not make the wcf. They cannot beat the blues or hawks in a 7 game series. Congrats though if it happens considering they were both #1 seeds in their respective conferences. Do you bet - 200 faves in hoops and bases as well?
I'm seeing in Vegas Dallas at 2-1 and St Louis at 9-4 to come out of the West and Dallas 4-1 and St Louis 5-1 to win it all.
Only series price I've seen shows a pick em between the two.
St Louis an underdog in Dallas for game 1, of course, but not by much, in the neighborhood of +110.
I'm not trying to argue PorkChop, I just see this race to the finals a little differently right now.
Dallas could be in trouble here.
Edit: Pinny has the Blues favored for the series -115/+102. Dallas +102 and the better than 2-1 we can online for them to come out of the West just feels a bit like a sucker bet to me, right now.
Last edited by KVB; 04-26-16 at 12:36 PM.
2-0 Nashville buddy. Even if the ducks come back, it was far from what you stated in the series prediction thread about my prediction. Trying to embarrass me when all you've done is embarrass yourself... Looks like youre the one nowhere to be found...good luck on your Dallas bet though because you will certainly need it with that shitty d and goaltending...
Read the first post.
I came right out and said, this is the info I received, obviously my Ducks pick will be wrong, I will be hedging. I played Dallas to win West and Pittsburgh to win East the same day I made this post. And Im sitting on it regardless now through June.
When your a mature adult, making money is the only object. Not kicking and screaming. An intelligent posted would come in here and align Dallas and Pittsburgh and work odds. Not act like a 13 year old boy and say Dallas sucks and stands no chance and got lucky etc. Grow up. It'll benefit yourself and the people around you. You get nowhere in life trying to put people down when you can't even align your own Stars.
Saying that, now, yes I'll take "My shitty D and goaltending Dallas team, who "was lucky to win the first round" and "stands no chance to win the WCF."
BOL to you and who ever the hell your picking.
ODDS TO WIN THE 2015-16 NHL STANLEY CUP FINALS
ODDS TO WIN THE 2015-16 NHL EASTERN CONFERENCE
Team Odds Washington Capitals 27/10 Pittsburgh Penguins 19/5 Dallas Stars 4/1 St. Louis Blues 5/1 San Jose Sharks 11/2 Tampa Bay Lightning 12/1 New York Islanders 14/1 Nashville Predators 20/1
ODDS TO WIN THE 2015-16 NHL WESTERN CONFERENCE
Team Odds Washington Capitals 6/5 Pittsburgh Penguins 5/4 Tampa Bay Lightning 5/1 New York Islanders 6/1
Team Odds Dallas Stars 2/1 St. Louis Blues 9/4 San Jose Sharks 13/5 Nashville Predators 8/1
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