1. #1
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    NHL Strategy +770 units

    Some things you should know before reading further:

    1) I posted an MLB system that failed miserably this season. I promised over 100 units of profit and we ended up losing more than 30 units.
    2)
    This NHL strategy involves extremely high juice ranging from -151 to -400 with majority of the plays in the -200 to -250 range.
    3)
    You will need a book that offers Alternate Puck Lines to use this strategy. I personally use 5Dimes.
    4)
    All of the information posted in this thread is 100% accurate to my knowledge.
    5)
    If I post it, I play it.


    Although the MLB system failed this season, I felt like the foundation was solid. It just needed a little renovating. So I applied the same philosophy in creating the strategy for MLB to NHL. But whereas I only backtested 5 years for MLB, I went back 10 years for NHL. This enabled me to find consistencies and institute filters which had I done for MLB, would've made a HUGE difference.

    Here's the NHL results from the last 10 years. Records are based off of a 3 game chase method. First number in sequence is A bet wins, second is B bet wins, third is C bet wins, and losses are in parentheses followed by the total record and units won:

    2015 -
    73-24-4 (1) = 101-1, +64 units
    2014 -
    78-27-2 = 107-0, +107 units
    2013 -
    40-10-2 = 52-0, +52 units
    2012 -
    75-16-4 = 95-0, +95 units
    2011 -
    80-28-5 (1) = 113-1, +92 units
    2010 -
    69-28-6 (1) = 103-1, +81 units
    2009 -
    72-21-6 (1) = 99-1, +73 units
    2008 -
    78-29-3 = 110-0, +110 units
    2007 -
    70-24-3 (1) = 97-1, +68 units
    2006 -
    82-13-4 (2) = 99-2, +28 units

    Total -
    717-220-39 (7) = 976-7, +770 units


    As you can see, the last 10 years have been extremely profitable using this strategy as a chase method, which is how I personally will be using it. But if you don't like the chase method because of the high risk involved, another option would be to just play the B bets. They've hit at 83% over the last 10 years.

    Anyway, I've learned my lesson and am not making any promises. What you see here is exactly how the last 10 years have played out according to my research. Whether or not this year follows suit, we will see.

    First play of the season should be sometime this week. Good luck to those of you who decide to follow.

  2. #2
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,590
    Betpoints: 10212

    Good luck Led

  3. #3
    pukestains
    pukestains's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-15
    Posts: 3
    Betpoints: 276

    Gl man I'll keep an eye on your thread.

  4. #4
    Can U Tank It
    Can U Tank It's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-15
    Posts: 189
    Betpoints: 3332

    good luck ledjend- B bets only at 83%?, not a B/C chase at 83%. seems like a B only at 83% would be a no brainer, unless i spose the odds are -200 or worse

  5. #5
    Can U Tank It
    Can U Tank It's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-15
    Posts: 189
    Betpoints: 3332

    Quote Originally Posted by Can U Tank It View Post
    good luck ledjend- B bets only at 83%?, not a B/C chase at 83%. seems like a B only at 83% would be a no brainer, unless i spose the odds are -200 or worse
    looking at it more closely, 83% even at -400 odds is basically break even.

  6. #6
    Can U Tank It
    Can U Tank It's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-15
    Posts: 189
    Betpoints: 3332

    Quote Originally Posted by Can U Tank It View Post
    good luck ledjend- B bets only at 83%?, not a B/C chase at 83%. seems like a B only at 83% would be a no brainer, unless i spose the odds are -200 or worse
    nevermind the question- you have it all spelled out. best of luck this year to you. thanks.

  7. #7
    ScorpionSnow
    ScorpionSnow's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-16-15
    Posts: 148
    Betpoints: 6661

    Best of luck Led i will follow and see how you get on .

  8. #8
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 707
    Betpoints: 1094

    What exactly are your selections based on? I could easily open a thread claiming outstanding results to. I guess we have to wait and see how it performs, as nobody should take your backtest with no publicly displayed perameters seriously.

    Good luck

  9. #9
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99 View Post
    What exactly are your selections based on? I could easily open a thread claiming outstanding results to. I guess we have to wait and see how it performs, as nobody should take your backtest with no publicly displayed perameters seriously.

    Good luck
    Kudos to you for learning from past mistakes.

    I can assure you this strategy is much different than your TGFP experience - but if you have personal doubts about my claims, then you may want to wait a couple months before checking back in.

    Thanks.

  10. #10
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-10
    Posts: 707
    Betpoints: 1094

    Quote Originally Posted by ledjend View Post
    Kudos to you for learning from past mistakes.

    I can assure you this strategy is much different than your TGFP experience - but if you have personal doubts about my claims, then you may want to wait a couple months before checking back in.

    Thanks.
    I see your familiar with the search feature! I didn't wager on the TGFP. I found it to be an interesting thread and simply followed along.

    I'm not here to bash or bring negativity to your thread. I hope your claims are true and you crush the books and make some cash for yourself and anyone who may follow along. Without perameters however it is a 'Buyer Beware' situation.


  11. #11
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by trobin31 View Post
    Good luck Led
    Quote Originally Posted by pukestains View Post
    Gl man I'll keep an eye on your thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by Can U Tank It View Post

    nevermind the question- you have it all spelled out. best of luck this year to you. thanks.
    Quote Originally Posted by ScorpionSnow View Post
    Best of luck Led i will follow and see how you get on .

    Thanks guys - first play tomorrow.

  12. #12
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 10/24


    - Van A bet -
    currently -169, play Money Line (1000 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  13. #13
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 10/24


    - Van A bet -
    Loss (-174)...B bet on 10/27


    Year to date - 0-0, +0 u





  14. #14
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 10/27


    - Fla A bet (vs Col) -
    currently -155, play Money Line (1930 est)
    - Van B bet -
    currently +109, play Puck Line +1.5 at -290 (2200 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  15. #15
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 10/27


    - Fla A bet (vs Col) -
    Win
    - Van B bet -
    Win


    Year to date - 2-0, +2 u



    *Next play on 10/29.

  16. #16
    Can U Tank It
    Can U Tank It's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-02-15
    Posts: 189
    Betpoints: 3332

    Quote Originally Posted by ledjend View Post
    Some things you should know before reading further:

    1) I posted an MLB system that failed miserably this season. I promised over 100 units of profit and we ended up losing more than 30 units.
    2)
    This NHL strategy involves extremely high juice ranging from -151 to -400 with majority of the plays in the -200 to -250 range.
    3)
    You will need a book that offers Alternate Puck Lines to use this strategy. I personally use 5Dimes.
    4)
    All of the information posted in this thread is 100% accurate to my knowledge.
    5)
    If I post it, I play it.


    Although the MLB system failed this season, I felt like the foundation was solid. It just needed a little renovating. So I applied the same philosophy in creating the strategy for MLB to NHL. But whereas I only backtested 5 years for MLB, I went back 10 years for NHL. This enabled me to find consistencies and institute filters which had I done for MLB, would've made a HUGE difference.

    Here's the NHL results from the last 10 years. Records are based off of a 3 game chase method. First number in sequence is A bet wins, second is B bet wins, third is C bet wins, and losses are in parentheses followed by the total record and units won:

    2015 -
    73-24-4 (1) = 101-1, +64 units
    2014 -
    78-27-2 = 107-0, +107 units
    2013 -
    40-10-2 = 52-0, +52 units
    2012 -
    75-16-4 = 95-0, +95 units
    2011 -
    80-28-5 (1) = 113-1, +92 units
    2010 -
    69-28-6 (1) = 103-1, +81 units
    2009 -
    72-21-6 (1) = 99-1, +73 units
    2008 -
    78-29-3 = 110-0, +110 units
    2007 -
    70-24-3 (1) = 97-1, +68 units
    2006 -
    82-13-4 (2) = 99-2, +28 units

    Total -
    717-220-39 (7) = 976-7, +770 units


    As you can see, the last 10 years have been extremely profitable using this strategy as a chase method, which is how I personally will be using it. But if you don't like the chase method because of the high risk involved, another option would be to just play the B bets. They've hit at 83% over the last 10 years.

    Anyway, I've learned my lesson and am not making any promises. What you see here is exactly how the last 10 years have played out according to my research. Whether or not this year follows suit, we will see.

    First play of the season should be sometime this week. Good luck to those of you who decide to follow.
    nice start ledjend - looking at your numbers again, it seems that only playing A bets would be profitable course of action (717 of 983 at 73%). am I looking at this correctly?

    I guess not really, since roughly 3 A wins = 1 A loss. again, nevermind.
    Last edited by Can U Tank It; 10-28-15 at 12:12 PM.

  17. #17
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by Can U Tank It View Post
    nice start ledjend - looking at your numbers again, it seems that only playing A bets would be profitable course of action (717 of 983 at 73%). am I looking at this correctly?

    I guess not really, since roughly 3 A wins = 1 A loss. again, nevermind.
    Too inconsistent.

    Chasing or just solely playing B games has been profitable almost every single year.

  18. #18
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 10/29


    - St L A bet (vs Ana) -
    currently -162, play Money Line (2000 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  19. #19
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 10/29

    Flat Betting
    (Entered day 1-1, +.28 u)

    - St L +1.5 at -475 - Win


    A bets = 2-1, +.28 (73% past 10 yrs)
    B bets = 1-0, +1 (83% past 10 yrs)
    C bets = 0-0, +0 (85% past 10 yrs)

    Year to date - 3-1, +1.28 u



    Chase
    (Entered day 2-0, +2 u)

    - St L A bet (vs Ana) - Win


    Year to date - 3-0, +3 u


    Important Note:
    I still recommend either using this strategy as a Chase, or just solely playing the B bets. That being said, there have been years where flat betting the A's made money - but it's been hit or miss.

  20. #20
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 10/30


    - Mon A bet -
    currently not listed yet (2100 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  21. #21
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 10/30

    Flat Betting
    (Entered day 3-1, +1.28 u)

    - Mon +1.5 at -300 - Win


    A bets = 3-1, +1.28 (73% past 10 yrs)
    B bets = 1-0, +1 (83% past 10 yrs)
    C bets = 0-0, +0 (85% past 10 yrs)

    Year to date - 4-1, +2.28 u



    Chase
    (Entered day 3-0, +3 u)

    - Mon A bet - Win


    Year to date - 4-0, +4 u


    Important Note:
    I still recommend either using this strategy as a Chase, or just solely playing the B bets. That being said, there have been years where flat betting the A's made money - but it's been hit or miss.

  22. #22
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 11/2


    - Chi A bet -
    currently -116, play Alternate Puck Line +1.5 at -360 (2030 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  23. #23
    nic18
    nic18's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-04-14
    Posts: 17
    Betpoints: 588

    Good job so far

  24. #24
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by nic18 View Post
    Good job so far
    Long way to go - but thanks.

  25. #25
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 11/2

    Flat Betting
    (Entered day 4-1, +2.28 u)

    - Chi +1.5 at -355 - Win


    A bets = 4-1, +2.28 (73% past 10 yrs)
    B bets = 1-0, +1 (83% past 10 yrs)
    C bets = 0-0, +0 (85% past 10 yrs)

    Year to date - 5-1, +3.28 u



    Chase
    (Entered day 4-0, +4 u)

    - Chi A bet - Win


    Year to date - 5-0, +5 u


    Important Note:
    I still recommend either using this strategy as a Chase, or just solely playing the B bets. That being said, there have been years where flat betting the A's made money - but it's been hit or miss.

  26. #26
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 11/3


    - NYI A bet -
    currently -155, play Money Line (1900 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  27. #27
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    YESTERDAY 11/3

    Flat Betting
    (Entered day 5-1, +3.28 u)

    - NYI at -158 - Win

    Year to date - 6-1, +4.28 u


    Chase
    (Entered day 5-0, +5 u)

    - NYI A bet - Win

    Year to date - 6-0, +6 u


    Important Note:
    I still recommend either using this strategy as a Chase, or just solely playing the B bets. That being said, there have been years where flat betting the A's made money - but it's been hit or miss.


    Additional Helpful Info:

    A bets = 5-1, +3.28 (73% past 10 yrs)
    B bets = 1-0, +1 (83% past 10 yrs)
    C bets = 0-0, +0 (85% past 10 yrs)
    Last edited by ledjend; 11-04-15 at 09:50 AM.

  28. #28
    CubsFan1908
    CubsFan1908's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-11-15
    Posts: 221
    Betpoints: 18

    Just wondering what's the average unit loss when you lose a chase?

  29. #29
    Slanina
    Slanina's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-21-09
    Posts: 3,828
    Betpoints: 5895

    Quote Originally Posted by CubsFan1908 View Post
    Just wondering what's the average unit loss when you lose a chase?
    3 or 4 mortgage payments?

    Some of these lines are -450. At -300 for a whole chase you'll lose over 60 units. To each their own. No risk no reward, i guess.
    Last edited by Slanina; 11-04-15 at 11:25 AM.

  30. #30
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by CubsFan1908 View Post
    Just wondering what's the average unit loss when you lose a chase?
    29.43

  31. #31
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by Slanina View Post
    3 or 4 mortgage payments?

    Some of these lines are -450. At -300 for a whole chase you'll lose over 60 units. To each their own. No risk no reward, i guess.

    As I said in the first post, if chasing that kind of juice makes you uncomfortable, playing only the B bets is another option.

  32. #32
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    11/7 next play.

  33. #33
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    TODAY 11/7


    - Min A bet -
    currently -119, play Alternate Puck Line +1.5 at -340 (2000 est)


    Good luck!


    *IMPORTANT:
    Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -150 or lower should be made on the Puck Line/Alternate Puck Line.

  34. #34
    JGuer04
    JGuer04's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-27-09
    Posts: 226
    Betpoints: 399

    im confused on the bet for today. it may be just because my book doesn't have alternate line. So are we betting min or tampa? my books shows tampa +1.5 -300 that's why Im asking.

  35. #35
    ledjend
    ledjend's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-14-14
    Posts: 1,111
    Betpoints: 3109

    Quote Originally Posted by JGuer04 View Post
    im confused on the bet for today. it may be just because my book doesn't have alternate line. So are we betting min or tampa? my books shows tampa +1.5 -300 that's why Im asking.
    Yea you're gonna need alternate lines to use this strategy properly. Today's play is Minn +1.5 which is currently only accessible through an alternate line. I use 5dimes.

1234 ... Last
Top