Interesting Totals Information First 100 games Oct 8th to Oct 23rd
Did this last night so didn't include those games
First 100 games
(41) Over 5.5
(59) Under 5.5
(41) Over 5.5
(27) Exactly 5
(32) Under 5
1st Period Goal Totals
(48) Under 1.5
(52) Over 1.5
If 1st Period Goals = 0,1
14.6% Total Goals will result in o5.5
85.4% Total Goals will result in u5.5
If 1st Period Goals ≠ 0,1 65.4% Total Goals will result in o5.5 34.6% Total Goals will result in u5.5
If 1st Period Goals = 0 5.3% Total Goals will result in o5.5 94.7% Total Goals will result in u5.5
If 1st Period Goals = 1 20.7% Total Goals will result in o5.5 79.3% Total Goals will result in u5.5
Biggest Totals Surprise Only 5 of the first 100 games has had a combined goals of 6
Some Analysis
If you like an over, based on these short term results play the o6 or o6.5 to increase potential returns by over 40% to 65% respectively. By playing the o6 you protect yourself from the most likely correction of multiple games ending 4-2.
We have seen in various situations teams are much more willing to pull their goalie with over 150 seconds remaining when down by 2 goals and this will drive more 3-1 & 4-2 games to have potentially 1 or 2 goals scored in the last few minutes of a game.
If team A is winning against team B 3-1 then team A has over a 2 minute window in some situations to score and win 4-1 or if team B scored to create 3-2 the goalie will most likely remain on the bench creating a coin flip for a 4-2, 3-3 result.
Of course this is less likely but in the early going we have seen a trend of teams willing to risk going down an additional goal when facing a 2 goal deficit in order to mount a late comeback.
If at 1st Intermission a game has a combined goal total of 0 Play an over 4.5 alternative total if line is (+200) or greater
If at 1st Intermission a game has a combined goal total of 1 Play an over 5.5 alternative total if line is (+300) or greater
If at 1st Intermission a game has a combined goal total of 2 Play an under 5.5 alternative total if line is (+225)
If at 1st Intermission a game has a combined goal total of 2 Play an under 6.5 alternative total if line is (+180)
Based on Probabilities from the Small Sample Size of 100 games there are 10 parlay options that have offered an expected value of over 1.00
(EV=Expected Value) (1) Parlaying 2x u5.5 EV of 1.204 (2) Parlaying 1x u5.5 1x u5 EV of 1.178 (3) Parlaying 1x u5 1x u5 EV of 1.152 (4) Parlaying 1x u6 1x u5.5 EV of 1.056 (5) Parlaying 1x u5.5 1x u4.5 EV of 1.054 (6) Parlaying 1x u6 1x u5 EV of 1.033 (7) Parlaying 1x u5 1x u4.5 EV of 1.030 (8) Parlaying 1x o6.5 1x u5.5 EV of 1.027 (9) Parlaying 1x u5.5 1x o4.5 EV of 1.007 (10) Parlaying 1x o6.5 1x u5 EV of 1.004
Depending on how you interpret probabilities and sports statistics there can are 2 view point that can come from this.
In the long run the O/U discrepancy will not result in 41%/59% and there will be a correction with more overs.
Never bet on a correction an ride the trends of goal total unders hitting at 59%
Teams Playing October 25th
Current Under 5.5 Trends Nashville Predators have had 6 of their 7 games go under 5.5 goals
Detroit Redwings have had 6 of 7 games go under 5.5 goals
Boston Bruins have had 7 of 9 games go under 5.5 goals
St. Louis Blues have had 5 of 6 games go under 5.5 goals
Chicago Blackhawks have had 5 of 6 games go under 5.5 goals
Ottawa Senators have had 4 of 5 games go under 5.5 goals
Calgary Flames have had 7 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Buffalo Sabres have had 4 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Chicago Blackhawks have had 4 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Minnesota Wild have had All 5 games go under 5.5 goals
Teams Trending Over 5.5
Pittsburgh 4-2
Arizona 4-2
Philadelphia 5-2
New Jersey 5-2
San Jose 5-3
NY Islanders 5-2
Nashville Predators have had 7 of their 8 games go under 5.5 goals
Detroit Redwings have had 6 of 8 games go under 5.5 goals
Boston Bruins have had 8 of 10 games go under 5.5 goals
St. Louis Blues have had 6 of 7 games go under 5.5 goals
Chicago Blackhawks have had 6 of 7 games go under 5.5 goals
Ottawa Senators have had 5 of 6 games go under 5.5 goals
Minnesota Wild have had 5 of 6 games go under 5.5 goals
Washington Capitals have had 5 of 7 games go under 5.5 goals
Calgary Flames have had 8 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Buffalo Sabres have had 5 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Chicago Blackhawks have had 5 Straight under 5.5 goal games
Anaheim Ducks have had 4 Straight under 5.5 goal games