1. #386
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cutler'sThumb View Post
    That's one heck of a query JMon. Small sample, but when it's stretched over 9 seasons with that kind of win rate it's definitely a keeper! Unless you have an objection, I'll throw it on the spreadsheet.
    I don't use the spreadsheet, but anyone is welcomed to any of the queries I post here.

  2. #387
    zxqwpdbg
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    i have been betting way to many games lately. i want to try picking my spots.

    here is one of the few query's online that i find worthwhile to bet on.

    p:HW and po:goals=0 and WP>50 and game number<42 and season>=2010

    what does everyone think of this shark's play?
    is it a good idea to play the juice?
    maybe take the regulation or puck line?
    what is the thought process?
    how could i dissect this query down to figure out the best play?

  3. #388
    emceeaye
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    I hear you, zxqwpdbg. I have been getting worked lately with more than 5 bets a day.

    I like your sharks query as well but I've learned the hard way that it's never safe to bet ML on a game that's as juiced as that.

    Ross Benjamin gives the following rationale for picking Sharks puck line today:

    NHL Betting System
    Play against any money line road underdog (Oilers) of +200 or greater that’s lost 6 or 7 of their last 8-games, and they’re playing their 4th game in the last 7-days. By playing against that road team in that exact situation you would’ve gone 46-5 (90.2%) during the past 5-seasons. More importantly, the road team was at a -2.1 goal per game differential in those 51-contests. Taking this system one step further, it has gone 27-2 (93.1%) during the past 3-seasons.
    NHL Pick: San Jose -1.5 (+115) over Edmonton

    Is he accurate? Well, let's look at his, and then add a few variables to get a better look...

    Avg goal differential =2.18:
    AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010

    Avg goal differential=2.19:
    AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2010 and day=Thursday

    Avg goal differential=2.19:
    AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and season>=2012

    However, here avg goal differential=1.34:
    AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and PP:season=season and PP:W

    Avg goal differential=2.00:
    AD and 7>=tS(L, N=8)>=6 and t:date-p3:date<7 and line>=200 and oS(W, N=8)=7

    I think it may be worth a puck line play on Sharks... The one thing that worries me is the query reflecting that the oilers gave the Sharks their only loss in the past eight games. The goal differential in that situation is less than 2 goals..
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-18-14 at 12:03 PM.

  4. #389
    JMon
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    H and streak<=-5 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50

    winning team on a bad losing streak get back on track at home against a losing team.

    showcasing the situation in a group-by

    H and streak<=-2,-3,-4,-5,-6,-7 and 60>=WP>=51 and o:WP<50

  5. #390
    JMon
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    Never a losing year total

    A and p:W and p:margin=1 and p:division=po:division and op:HL and rest<3 and 4>o:rest>0 and total<6.5
    Last edited by JMon; 12-19-14 at 02:42 PM.

  6. #391
    emceeaye
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    Islanders under

    p:goals<=1 and pp:goals<=1 and F and conference=o:conference and season>=2012 and game number<=42 and total=5.5

    since 2012, play under in a game when the favorite is playing a conference game in the first half of the season with a total of 5.5, and that team didn't score much in their previous 2 games, specifically 1 goal or less in each of its previous 2 games.

  7. #392
    JMon
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    p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and op:A and opp:A and oppp:A and opppp:A and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and month!=1

    Never losing total.. two teams on long road streaks, not on heavy rest and not in Jan...play under

  8. #393
    emceeaye
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    Penguins/Panthers under 5.5

    Here's one I just came up with on the Penguins/Panthers under for Saturday:

    total=5.5 and tA(ou margin)<=A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10

    Here's another one I put together supporting it:

    total=5.5 and tA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and oA(ou margin)<=.81*A(ou margin) and season>=2013 and (day=Tuesday or day=Saturday) and month!=5 and month!=1 and month!=10
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-20-14 at 03:17 PM.

  9. #394
    JMon
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    H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and op:overtime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season
    Last edited by JMon; 12-20-14 at 03:31 PM.

  10. #395
    Cutler'sThumb
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and op:overtime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season
    You playing both of these JMon?

    Blackhawks/Blue Jackets also a decent under play tonight (NHL 55):
    total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p:ou margin > -3 and 4.5 > op:ou margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19

  11. #396
    zxqwpdbg
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    H and po:goals <= 2 and ppo:goals <= 2 and op:W and opvertime = 1 and total<6 and rest<3 and o:rest<3 and 2009<=season
    great query jmon. why the need for "total<6"? it takes out 1 under and 2 pushes. wouldn't it be better to remove "total<6"?

  12. #397
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by zxqwpdbg View Post
    great query jmon. why the need for "total<6"? it takes out 1 uinder and 2 pushes. wouldn't it be better to remove "total<6"?
    good catch! I think when I was making the query I had something else going on where I needed a total parameter, then I changed the query so that there would be no need for it. Well it worked, but I guess I forgot to actually remove it...lol

  13. #398
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cutler'sThumb View Post
    You playing both of these JMon?

    Blackhawks/Blue Jackets also a decent under play tonight (NHL 55):
    total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p:ou margin > -3 and 4.5 > op:ou margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19
    ya, I think so. Bol if you do
    Last edited by JMon; 12-20-14 at 05:24 PM.

  14. #399
    nash13
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    I updated the NHL section. Would be nice if anyone could double check for missing queries. Please adapt to the format in the sheet if possible.
    Great work here we cracked over 110 queries since start of the season. Awesome

  15. #400
    emceeaye
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    month!=10 and month!=1 and (day=Friday or day=Saturday) and tA(goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(goals+short handed goals) and oA(goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(goals+short handed goals) and tA(o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.94*A(o:goals+o:short handed goals) and oA(o:goals+short handed goals)<.94*A(o:goals+o:short handed goals)

    season>=2010 and (day=Monday or day=Wednesday or day=Friday) and (month=3 or month=4 or month=5 or month=12) and tA(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals)<.9*A(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals) and oA(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals)<.9*A(minutes short handed+goals+short handed goals) and tA(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.9*A(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals) and oA(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)<.9*A(o:minutes short handed+o:goals+o:short handed goals)
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-21-14 at 12:45 AM.

  16. #401
    JMon
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    F and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and 2009<=season and o:WP<50 and o:rest<3

  17. #402
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    Play under a tired road team on a winning streak

    14 - (rest + p:rest + pp:rest + ppp:rest + pppp:rest + ppppp:rest + pppppp:rest) >= 8 and A and total <= 5.5 and tS(W, N=8) >= 6

  18. #403
    emceeaye
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    F and tA(o:goals)>=3 and po:goals<=2 and ppo:goals<=2 and 2009<=season and o:WP<50 and o:rest<3
    Here's a situation by Ross b today on oilers but not getting his numbers. Anyone else have better luck?


    consistent for me when making my NHL picks.
    Any money line underdog that’s playing just their 2nd game in the last 5-days, and they lost each of their previous two games, and those contests came against division opponents, has seen the underdog go 28-12 (70%) during the past three seasons.

    D and t:date-p:date<5 and p:L and pp:L and p:division=po:division and pp:division=ppo:division and season>=2013

    Update:

    This may be at least close to the query:
    line>0 and p:rest+rest=3 and p:L and pp:L and p:division=po:division and pp:division=ppo:division and season>=2012

    May be worth reconsidering... No play for me.
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-21-14 at 03:17 PM.

  19. #404
    emceeaye
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    for today

    HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 4>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010

    HF and p:goals=2 and op:goals=3 and 3>pp:goals>1 and season>=2010

  20. #405
    JMon
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    H and ou streak>=2 and 2.9>=tA(goals)>=2.5 and 2.9>=oA(goals)>=2.5 and 2010<=season

    Wish I would have found this earler...9-0 on the under this season. Note..total of 5.5 is more appealing than 5

  21. #406
    emceeaye
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    for today:

    A and p:AL and p:division=po:division and op:margin<=-4 and op:division=opo:division

    lowish sample size but amazing ROI over 24 games mostly on dogs

    consistent with other queries as well one of which is:

    total=5 and -1>streak>-4 and -1>=o:streak>-3 and day!=Saturday and month!=4 and day=Tuesday
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-23-14 at 08:22 AM.

  22. #407
    Cutler'sThumb
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    Long term 59" under trend (#55) for tonight:
    total = 5.5 and 14 < p:shots on goal < 32 and playoffs = 0 and day != Thursday and day != Friday and day != Sunday and rest < 4 and o:rest < 4 and rest + o:rest > 0 and 7 > streak > -4 and (game number < 38 or game number > 51) and ou streak < 5 and p:ou margin > -3 and 4.5 > op:ou margin > -3 and 43 > op:shots on goal > 19

    Wild
    Lightning
    Avalanche


    Also some live dogs from #16:
    rest = o:rest and AD and rest = 1 and (P:AD or P:HF) and WP <= 60 and (130 >= line > 115 or line > 150) and P:rest - oP:rest <= 1

    Maple Leafs +122
    Jets +214

  23. #408
    JMon
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    D and P:HL and p:AL and p:goals=0 and 2007<=season and line<190

  24. #409
    emceeaye
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    D and P:HL and p:AL and p:goals=0 and 2007<=season and line<190
    Nice... Wish I would have seen this earlier...eff... Oh well, I may have to just ride the Hurricanes out.

  25. #410
    Cutler'sThumb
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    Love the little gems you sprinkle in JMon. NBA has been like herding cats, but NHL has really been dialed in lately.

  26. #411
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by emceeaye View Post
    Nice... Wish I would have seen this earlier...eff... Oh well, I may have to just ride the Hurricanes out.
    Worked out for you

  27. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cutler'sThumb View Post
    Love the little gems you sprinkle in JMon. NBA has been like herding cats, but NHL has really been dialed in lately.
    Thanks...don't know much about hockey and it's taken me awhile to catch on, but trying to help the crew when I can..

  28. #413
    nash13
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    Awesome nevertheless Hockey is the Sport with the second most queries. NFL has been a red flag for me all year. Lost nearly entire qinnings from other sports. Got to reconsider there the changing rules etc.

  29. #414
    emceeaye
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    Worked out for you
    Yes.. Could have gone either way. But, thanks for an awesome query...one thing I'm realizing is that when there are strong queries pointing in opposite directions in hockey (and baseball), and when two of us are on opposite sides, although I haven't been tracking this to know for sure, the game is often decided by a one-goal margin in favor of the team with more of the available strong queries supporting it...not sure, but if there is a more systematic way of identifying these situations correctly more often than not, then we would have something good (especially since so many of these games are decided by one goal regardless).
    Last edited by emceeaye; 12-24-14 at 09:10 AM.

  30. #415
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by emceeaye View Post
    Yes.. Could have gone either way. But, thanks for an awesome query...one thing I'm realizing is that when there are strong queries pointing in opposite directions in hockey (and baseball), and when two of us are on opposite sides, although I haven't been tracking this to know for sure, the game is often decided by a one-goal margin in favor of the team with more of the available strong queries supporting it...not sure, but if there is a more systematic way of identifying these situations correctly more often than not, then we would have something good (especially since so many of these games are decided by one goal regardless).
    HA... when you figure that out...let me know

  31. #416
    emceeaye
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    HA... when you figure that out...let me know
    no problem, will do

  32. #417
    JMon
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    AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0

    Very solid, but tough taking a large fav today, but they are 10-1 SU - not so good 1.5

    Anyway solid overall, so wanted to share...cheers.

  33. #418
    Cutler'sThumb
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    #55 Under Trend is active today:
    Lightning/Hurricanes
    Penguins/Capitals
    Predators/Flyers (x2)


    Also a good under trend from JMon is active. Gives us Predators/Flyers under and Kings/Sharks under:
    H and ou streak>=2 and 2.9>=tA(goals)>=2.5 and 2.9>=oA(goals)>=2.5 and 2010<=season

  34. #419
    JMon
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    H and 160>=line>105 and tS(points-po:points)<=-.65 and po:goals<=1 and o:rest!=1

    fade a bad team as a dog, being outscored by .65 or more goals after allowing 1 or less

  35. #420
    zxqwpdbg
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMon View Post
    AD and p:AW and p:division = po:division and op:HW and rest not in [2] and o:rest > 0

    Very solid, but tough taking a large fav today, but they are 10-1 SU - not so good 1.5

    Anyway solid overall, so wanted to share...cheers.
    i don't understand what "and rest not in [2]" means or "not so good 1.5".

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