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Tough one last night I figured it was gonna happen soon just glad it was bronze plays and not many games.
W L % $ W L % Gold 17 8 68.00% $100.5 ML 85 51 62.50% Silver 15 11 57.69% $4.5 O/U 25 22 53.19% Bronze 14 12 53.85% $1.99 ML reg 72 14 83.72%
Game win %
W L % 50 14 7 66.67% 55 22 17 56.41% 60 20 15 57.14% 65 14 9 60.87% 70 16 2 88.89%
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:44 AM. Reason: image does not exist
2-1 not bad
W L % $ W L % Gold 17 8 68.00% $100.5 ML 87 52 62.59% Silver 16 12 57.14% $4.5 O/U 25 22 53.19% Bronze 14 12 53.85% $1.99 ML reg 73 15 82.95%
Game win %
W L % 50 14 8 63.64% 55 22 17 56.41% 60 20 15 57.14% 65 16 9 64.00% 70 16 2 88.89%
Gold = COL
Silver= WSH TBL
Bronze= NYI MTL
Consensus 6-3
PIT
TBL
STL
COL
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist
nice night tonight 6-2 overall and 4-0 on Picks hope tomorrow is good as well with a big card.
outstanding calmeat! looks like clean sweep to me.
Posting now but will update later hopefully after i run some errands with the fam.
W L % $ W L % Gold 18 8 69.23% $110.5 ML 93 54 63.27% Silver 18 12 60.00% $15.75 O/U 29 23 55.77% Bronze 15 13 53.57% $2.49 ML reg 78 16 82.98%
Game win %
W L % 50 16 10 61.54% 55 22 17 56.41% 60 21 15 58.33% 65 18 9 66.67% 70 17 2 89.47%
Gold = None
Silver = STL ANA FLA MTL DET
Bronze= CHI NJD NYR PIT
Consensus 10-3
CHI
ANA
NJD
BOS
DET
SJS
LAK
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist
...
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist
W L % $ W L % Gold 18 8 69.23% $110.5 ML 101 62 61.96% Silver 20 15 57.14% $9.25 O/U 31 24 56.36% Bronze 18 15 54.55% $3.86 ML reg 85 17 83.33%
Game Win %
14 9 60.87% W L % 50 16 11 59.26% 55 27 18 60.00% 60 21 17 55.26% 65 20 13 60.61% 70 18 2 90.00%
Consensus 14-9
ANA
DET
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist
Thanks for these charts Calmeat. Read these everyday... much appreciated!
Cool, Hope they help you out.Originally Posted by Ser Pucks
If you ever wanna be generous with some betpoints for the charts they would be greatly appreciated trying to renew to get to PRO.
Thanks and good luck
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Ah sweet thanks guys for the pts!!!!!
W L % $ W L % Gold 19 8 70.37% $121 ML 102 63 61.82% Silver 20 16 55.56% $2.25 O/U 31 25 55.36% Bronze 18 15 54.55% $3.86 ML reg 86 17 83.50%
Game Win %
W L % 50 16 11 59.26% 55 27 18 60.00% 60 22 18 55.00% 65 20 13 60.61% 70 18 2 90.00%
Consensus 15-10
NYI
STL
PHI
MIN
SJS
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:45 AM. Reason: image does not exist
hope today is better
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:46 AM. Reason: image does not exist
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Thanks Ser! was busy at work today so only had time to post this. Ill post records tomorrow.
W L % $ W L % Gold 19 9 67.86% $111 ML 106 72 59.55% Silver 21 16 56.76% $7.25 O/U 32 27 54.24% Bronze 18 18 50.00% -$6.52 ML reg 89 19 82.41%
Game Win %
W L % 50 16 13 55.17% 55 27 21 56.25% 60 24 20 54.55% 65 21 14 60.00% 70 19 3 86.36%
Consensus 19-14
BOS
MTL
NJD
NYI
TBL
STL
SJS
LAK
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:46 AM. Reason: image does not exist
appreciate what you do here Calmeat, thanks for the work you put in. BOL to you
No prob Zeb hope it helps.
got robbed on a couple games tonight (by robbed i mean went into OT) I really thought MIN was gonna pull that off. oh well lost a little playing the picks but the consensus plays might turn out well.
yeah that was tough luck, but today is another day my friend! You'll get em back
W L % $ W L % Gold 20 10 66.67% $111.5 ML 112 77 59.26% Silver 22 20 52.38% -$9.75 O/U 34 27 55.74% Bronze 19 18 51.35% -$4.02 ML reg 95 19 83.33%
Game Win %
W L % 50 17 13 56.67% 55 27 22 55.10% 60 25 23 52.08% 65 21 15 58.33% 70 23 3 88.46%
Gold= NJD CGY
Silver=NSH
Bronze= ANA
Consensus = 24-16
TOR
NSH
COL
ANA
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:47 AM. Reason: image does not exist
Consensus Picks 27-16
OTT
MIN
CHI
PHX
LAK
Gold = MIN CHI
Silver= None
Bronze=EDM TBL PIT
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:47 AM. Reason: image does not exist
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Thanks again Ser. Im a little pissed right now. Of course the one night i only do 3 plays instead of the whole card its goes 7-1 with LAK game still playing and they are up 5-1 at the end of 2. Possible 8-1 night and i only play 3, and other nights i play the whole card and end up either winning a little or losing a little.
Consensus was 24-16 and went 3-1 yesterday so its 27-17 and not 27-16 i guess
nice bounce back. consensus 5-0. loved gold plays a lot more than fri when nj ang cgy were on road bb nights. is that factored in?
So typical eh? Woulda coulda shoulda. Gotta start pounding those gold plays over 70%. They're...well.....GOLD!
Thanks again for your effort, much appreciated.
Yeah 70 % is def an auto play for me as long as i can get at least a decent Reg line on it. For the medal plays (gold etc.) I am only going to play them if thier game winning % is also higher (or even) If its lower by a lot say like CGY on friday night its a no play for me. But if its a 50 50 game win % like TB last night then ill play that game.
Yeah Ser very typical it just always blows my mind when that happens cause it happens often. rarely is it the other way around where i lay off games and end up losing it seems its always they win when i lay of them. I just ran system for today. I wont have much time to update rosters and goalies so ill post what i have and if i get time to update ill post the update. GL today!
Oh and imarkp yeah it takes them into consideration. I was surprised those plays got gold im guessing because the line was so bad on them that it makes it a value play. i am going to look into that and see exactly why though.
An Manel88 good catch i didnt add the loss in my spreadsheet on the consensus.
W L % $ W L % Gold 22 12 64.71% $111.5 ML 123 79 60.89% Silver 22 21 51.16% -$15 O/U 35 28 55.56% Bronze 21 20 51.22% -$3.77 ML reg 104 21 83.20%
Game Win %
W L % 50 21 14 60.00% 55 28 23 54.90% 60 26 23 53.06% 65 24 15 61.54% 70 25 3 89.29%
Consensus 32-17
MTL
NYR
NJD
COL
ANA
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:47 AM. Reason: image does not exist
W L % $ W L % Gold 22 13 62.86% $96.5 ML 129 80 61.72% Silver 22 22 50.00% -$15 O/U 35 29 54.69% Bronze 22 20 52.38% -$1.27 ML reg 110 21 83.97%
Game Win %
W L % 50 23 14 62.16% 55 29 24 54.72% 60 27 23 54.00% 65 24 15 61.54% 70 27 3 90.00%
Consensus
37 17 68.52%
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:47 AM. Reason: image does not exist
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Early look for tomorrow
Also if you do props on player shots or anything like that just ask and i can let you know what their sim stats are.
Consensus as of right now
COL
WSH
NYI
NYR
MTL
ANA
DET
OTT
STL
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:48 AM. Reason: image does not exist
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Great job, Calmeat. Love this thread. Did you strip Stamkos out of the model for the Tampa numbers?
Yes stamkos is not in the lineup for TBL. I will check later today to make sure i have the correct lineup for them and also update goalies.
One thing that seems good is only playing the medal plays (gold silver bronze) if thier game win% is higher then the opponent unless its only by a couple pts (51% to 49%). But if its like 73% and 27% and the 27% is gold or another play then i would not play that.
Remember those "medal" plays are plays based on value. Although they are a +300 sometimes and a great longshot i wouldnt put the money on that dog or if i did it would be a smaller play just in case it did hit.
W L % $ W L % Gold 22 13 62.86% $96.5 ML 130 80 61.90% Silver 22 22 50.00% -$15 O/U 35 29 54.69% Bronze 22 20 52.38% -$1.27 ML reg 111 21 84.09%
Game win%
W L % 50 23 14 62.16% 55 29 24 54.72% 60 28 23 54.90% 65 24 15 61.54% 70 27 3 90.00%
*note NSH goalie first start so that game is an error since no stats for him yet
Consensus 37-17 68.52%
COL
WSH
NYR
MTL
ANA
DET
OTT
STL
NYI (lean other system has them to win and before goalie change this system did as well)
Gold= ANA
Silver= LAK NJD TBL OTT
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 04-16-15 at 10:48 AM. Reason: image does not exist
How do you decide whether to pick a team for ML vs picking it for a regulation win? Do you just do that when a team is heavily favored?
Grease King,
Yeah i usually try to stick with the ML but in cases where the juice is to high ill go with the REG. Also i look to the Large lead column if its close there ill stick with the ML but if there is a sig difference ill go with REG or -1.5, usually REG.
LARGE LEAD is actually the average largest lead which is predicted for this game. For example, if we ran 100 simulations for this game, and Team A never led in 25 of them, led by a max of 1 in 25 of them, and led by a max of 2 in 50 of them, then the average largest lead would be 1.25
So we have some underdogs tonight cal??
I beleive they all ml??
trying something here this is more to track to see how it would do
(COL @ CAR) - Total shots on goal in the game - Nathan Gerbe (CAR)
2½
(-130)over
(LA @ BUF) - Total shots on goal in the game - Anze Kopitar (LA)
3½
(-115)under
(LA @ BUF) - Total shots on goal in the game - Drew Stafford (BUF)
2½
(+110)over
(ANA @ FLA) - Total shots on goal in the game - Corey Perry (ANA)
4
(-115)under
Cal are u picks all ml for today ?
I like NYR in reg (-110)
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Ser Pucks gave calmeat 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
