[specialronnie29]

lot of sharp guys here claim you must have an estimate of EV in order to make a +EV bet. this is to hint to the guys with 'systems' that they should careful. but this is not really true. the main guys who have this belief are the hardcore 'kelly to the penny' bettors

an example is steam chasing. we all know it can be profitable but those that do it do not know their edge, but are making +ev bets. this is why the kelly guys get upset because then they dont know how much to bet.

there are a lot of guy making good money without knowing the EV. they just know it is positive. i feel the guys with sophisticated models here that spit out ev estimates look down on those that do not have models derived from primitives.

[Pancho sanza]

Who cares if they look down on you?

No one really has the precise +ev on anything, best you can do is get as close as possible and go from there.

[MadTiger]

Well, if you don't know the precise amount, but know you have a greenlight (+EV situation), then you should simply have a FLAT amount to bet. If you don't know how bright the greenlight is, then don't guess?

[FourLengthsClear]

There are several ways to skin a cat.

Making money in this game is not easy and whatever methods are used (modeling, handicapping, hitting soft lines, scalping, trading or tracking lines) commands respect if it is done successfully.

[tomcowley]

Clearly the correct plan is to have so much money that any +EV bet will be an acceptable limit bet. Saves a lot of work.

[LT Profits]

It is easy to calculate EXACT edge if you are chasing steam at a slow moving book with stale lines, just assume the line as the sharp book to be "true".

[specialronnie29]

Clearly the correct plan is to have so much money that any +EV bet will be an acceptable limit bet. Saves a lot of work.

this is the attitude i was referring to

some guys think theyre better than others because of HOW they make the money

i measure success with a dollar sign in front of it

[roasthawg]

lot of sharp guys here claim you must have an estimate of EV in order to make a +EV bet. this is to hint to the guys with 'systems' that they should careful. but this is not really true. the main guys who have this belief are the hardcore 'kelly to the penny' bettors

an example is steam chasing. we all know it can be profitable but those that do it do not know their edge, but are making +ev bets. this is why the kelly guys get upset because then they dont know how much to bet.

there are a lot of guy making good money without knowing the EV. they just know it is positive. i feel the guys with sophisticated models here that spit out ev estimates look down on those that do not have models derived from primitives.

Determining your edge when steam chasing is easy... use the new line as the "true" line.

[Socrates]

If your method wins, that's the entire point, and nothing else matters.

[Metalspined]

Be open to change and learn new things and do what works for you...in the end...it's the guy who has something to show for their work that can laugh the loudest...

[Pokerjoe]

It is impossible to calculate EXACT edge if you are chasing steam at a slow moving book with stale lines, because no one knows exactly how much a half point is worth, no one knows exactly where a sharp book's true line is (within the width of its juice), and no one knows that the sharp book's line is even "true".

FYP.

It's a little hilarious that there are people so bad at stats that they don't know the difference between using past results to guess at a half-point's value, and knowing a half-point's value. Something like how they think "assuming the sharp book's line is true" is something other than a good guess at the "true" line; something like thinking that if you call your guess an "estimate" it's okay to "assume" it's not a guess.

These are the same people who have never understood a basic fact of math philosophy: a guessed-at variable in an equation produces a guessed-at result, and that truth isn't changed no matter how many places past the decimal point you carry out your answer.

So we have guys who guess at their EV and then guess at their Kelly fraction and then plug their numbers into the Kelly formula and think they aren't guessing anymore.

Then they come into the forums, read poorly, write worse, and ridicule the most. Great.

[MadTiger]

If your method wins, that's the entire point, and nothing else matters.

That's the Bruce Lee approach. "Use what works, discard the rest."

[LT Profits]

FYP.

It's a little hilarious that there are people so bad at stats that they don't know the difference between using past results to guess at a half-point's value, and knowing a half-point's value. Something like how they think "assuming the sharp book's line is true" is something other than a good guess at the "true" line; something like thinking that if you call your guess an "estimate" it's okay to "assume" it's not a guess.

These are the same people who have never understood a basic fact of math philosophy: a guessed-at variable in an equation produces a guessed-at result, and that truth isn't changed no matter how many places past the decimal point you carry out your answer.

So we have guys who guess at their EV and then guess at their Kelly fraction and then plug their numbers into the Kelly formula and think they aren't guessing anymore.

Then they come into the forums, read poorly, write worse, and ridicule the most. Great.

My post was geared toward guys that chase steam exclusively, NOT toward guys that have good statistical models. I am assuming that steam chasers don't have the means/desire to set up working models, so for them, using the sharp book line as the true line and calculating edge that way is probably best. And these guys STILL have to use the half-point calculator because not all half-points are created equal. If we are talking Money Lines, then the calculation is much easier.

[That Foreign Guy]

Clearly the correct plan is to have so much money that any +EV bet will be an acceptable limit bet. Saves a lot of work.

Getting limited at the slow books really helps this process.

[yisman]

Misconception?

[bztips]

FYP.

It's a little hilarious that there are people so bad at stats that they don't know the difference between using past results to guess at a half-point's value, and knowing a half-point's value. Something like how they think "assuming the sharp book's line is true" is something other than a good guess at the "true" line; something like thinking that if you call your guess an "estimate" it's okay to "assume" it's not a guess.

These are the same people who have never understood a basic fact of math philosophy: a guessed-at variable in an equation produces a guessed-at result, and that truth isn't changed no matter how many places past the decimal point you carry out your answer.

So we have guys who guess at their EV and then guess at their Kelly fraction and then plug their numbers into the Kelly formula and think they aren't guessing anymore.

Then they come into the forums, read poorly, write worse, and ridicule the most. Great.

Contrary to your assertions, ESTIMATING your edge, ESTIMATING the value of a half-point, and computing your Kelly fraction based on ESTIMATED numbers is not the same as GUESSING. You apparently have no clue of the difference between statistically-based estimation and blind guessing -- your attempt to equate the two reveals a fundamental flaw in your "math philosophy".

[specialronnie29]

FYP.

It's a little hilarious that there are people so bad at stats that they don't know the difference between using past results to guess at a half-point's value, and knowing a half-point's value. Something like how they think "assuming the sharp book's line is true" is something other than a good guess at the "true" line; something like thinking that if you call your guess an "estimate" it's okay to "assume" it's not a guess.

These are the same people who have never understood a basic fact of math philosophy: a guessed-at variable in an equation produces a guessed-at result, and that truth isn't changed no matter how many places past the decimal point you carry out your answer.

So we have guys who guess at their EV and then guess at their Kelly fraction and then plug their numbers into the Kelly formula and think they aren't guessing anymore.

Then they come into the forums, read poorly, write worse, and ridicule the most. Great.

what do you think the E in EV stands for

boy life would be easy if we just had to maximize VALUE instead of EXPECTED value.

we are making the best guess possible

guessing a total of 300 in the Heat game tonight is not a best guess and if sportsbook put that line up what do you think would happen

[specialronnie29]

estimating edge using 'true' line after lets say pinnacle moves is not so easy

if we are talking pre-game nfl steam maybe but in other sports:

you dont know if the steam will keep going. if it does then you didnt bet enough.
if juice is large enough the no juice line is not necessarily true line

eg. O/U -110/-110 and sharps hammer under and it moves to -108/-112

is true line +102/-102? all you know is sharps did not bet into -112 again. it could be true line is +109/-111

using that approach will lead to a downward bias of estimated 'sharp team win probability'

[Salamander]

this is the attitude i was referring to

some guys think theyre better than others because of HOW they make the money

i measure success with a dollar sign in front of it

The problem I have with your statement is that it smacks of being at the right place at the right time which is a lottery-ish event, whereas the sharper guys calculate the number they need and go out and find it (or bid for it in an exchange)

[specialronnie29]

The problem I have with your statement is that it smacks of being at the right place at the right time which is a lottery-ish event, whereas the sharper guys calculate the number they need and go out and find it (or bid for it in an exchange)

how can you say this when you have no idea what im doing

[i do calculate a number but that is just one tool in the toolkit

[SparJMU]

Roasthawg and LT Profits, If I see Pinnacle with a true line of Packers -6 Bears (-125) and I am hammering the slow book at Packers -6 (-110), how do I estimate my edge in order to use Kelly size betting? What about if the line is Packers -6 (-110) and I can bet Packers -4(-110), how do I calculate edge then? I understand the argument above regarding whether or not the Pinnacle line is a "true line", but I would like to experiment.

If you would be kind enough to explain these two examples, I am sure I will have an understanding going forward.

[LT Profits]

Slow book: -6 -110 means with 20 cent lines means No Vig odds of +100 = 50%
Pinny: -6 -125 with dime line is No Vig odds of -119.4 = 54.48%

edge = 4.48%

[Data]

Getting limited at the slow books really helps this process.

Good thinking!