View New Posts
  • Thread Tools
  1. #1
    failheart
    failheart's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-16-10
    Posts: 19

    Dunkel Lines

    Are the Dunkel Lines pretty close to being right on?

  2. #2
    RickySteve
    SBR is a criminal organization
    RickySteve's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-06
    Posts: 3,422
    Betpoints: 186

    You might be able to grind a small profit vs. openers if you know what you're doing.

  3. #3

  4. #4
    stevenash
    Proving liberals wrong for decades
    stevenash's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 16,939
    Betpoints: 18746

    I prefer Sagarin
    300pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY3rd Place 7/15/2014

    400pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY2nd Place 7/18/2014

    150pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY7th Place 7/24/2014

    300pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY3rd Place 7/22/2014


  5. #5
    ScreaminPain
    ScreaminPain's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-17-08
    Posts: 234
    Betpoints: 1789

    I havent attempted to analyze Dunkel's data for NBA or CBB, but I have data from StatFox and Pomeroy and Sagarin. None of these are world beaters as far as ATS results are concerned. Here is what I have for January.

    I have arbititrarly used a difference of 3.1 Pts. as a differencial from the "posted line". This is in addition to whatever each has allowed for HCA. Also note, that I ONLY considered plays against the spread.

    StatFox: 110 Plays, record 57-53, 51.8%
    Sagarin: 100 Plays, record 54-46, 54.0%
    Pomeroy: 98 Plays, record 52-46, 53.6%

    I have noticed some correlations that may help. If you combine a couple of pairings a higher % results. Using the same criteria as above, but requiring that BOTH agree on the same play, the results improve:

    Pomeroy and Sagarin: 40 Plays, record 22-18, 55%
    Sagarin and StatFox: 32 Plays, record 19-13, 59.4%

    *- I did not track the combination of Pomeroy and Statfox in my data

    As you can see, certain correlations reveal a higher %. If I were better at Excel, I'd probably find a way to import Dan Curry and Dunkel's work into a spreadsheet. I think there exists some correlations that could be expoited.

    Sorry to stray from the OP's question, but I could see where he was headed and thought this may be useful.

    Good Luck on your action...

  6. #6
    bignick410
    bignick410's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-11
    Posts: 126
    Betpoints: 287

    Hey I stubled acoss this and was wondering if anyone had any spread sheets on sagarin this YTD was thinkg of doing a lil project
    if not does anyone know weher to find old ratings the only ones onm the site are the current weeks

  7. #7
    Miz
    Miz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-30-09
    Posts: 346
    Betpoints: 612

    they usually get priced into the market with far more weight than they should carry, and I love them for it

  8. #8
    easyliving
    easyliving's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-25-12
    Posts: 8,810
    Betpoints: 15

    checked them out for college baskettball last year for a while. didn't help at all don't even bother looking at the lines.
    250pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY4th Place 7/21/2014

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/28/2014

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/21/2014

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/24/2014

    SBR
    Resort
    Winner +1,285 pts

    300pts

    SBR POKER TOURNEY3rd Place 7/26/2014


  9. #9
    bignick410
    bignick410's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-11
    Posts: 126
    Betpoints: 287

    Yea I wasn't going to use just dunkel to make play but I was more or less taking the idea that screaming pain had and changing it a lil... Instead of picking games to rating indexes have in comin I would take the weekly team ratings of a few indexes and make it one rating equally balancing the ratings if each team then using those rating generated to make plays

  10. #10
    bignick410
    bignick410's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-30-11
    Posts: 126
    Betpoints: 287

    Or at least track it for the season

Top