1. 03-01-10 10:56 AM #1
    phans3
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    betting soft lines side of an arb

    Is betting the soft site of an arb a good way to get into ev+ sportsbetting?
    There are arb services available on the internet which will show you arbs as soon as they appear and the line that is the most off will obv have the most value most of the time so betting it should be ev+ in the long run...

    But you might not even need arbs to appear to make ev+ bets!?
    My plan is to combine Pinny/CRIS/Greek and compute the average to get a solid sharpline, after this i will calculate the no-vig line and then I start shopping around for off numbers.

    Does anyone here did this successful with a decent samplesize of bets?
    What is the catch?
    Last edited by phans3; 03-01-10 at 11:03 AM.
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  2. 03-01-10 12:00 PM #2
    Jaug
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    I've done this. Success? No. I have lost a lot of money getting surebet-value against pinnacles line. Worst sports have been NCAAB and NBA, with NBA hitting something like 40%. This is while getting 1-1.5 extra points on the spread on every bet.
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  3. 03-01-10 01:13 PM #3
    Thremp
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    This is an ezpz way to ship huge $$$$$$$$$$.
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  4. 03-01-10 01:47 PM #4
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by phans3 View Post
    Is betting the soft site of an arb a good way to get into ev+ sportsbetting?
    There are arb services available on the internet which will show you arbs as soon as they appear and the line that is the most off will obv have the most value most of the time so betting it should be ev+ in the long run...

    But you might not even need arbs to appear to make ev+ bets!?
    My plan is to combine Pinny/CRIS/Greek and compute the average to get a solid sharpline, after this i will calculate the no-vig line and then I start shopping around for off numbers.

    Does anyone here did this successful with a decent samplesize of bets?
    What is the catch?
    You'll win long-term with this.
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  5. 03-01-10 05:09 PM #5
    Johnny 55
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    This would work. There are some pitfalls, betting off-market numbers is definitely a good strategy in my opinion. Which arb services do you refer to?
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  6. 03-02-10 07:49 AM #6
    phans3
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    Which arb services do you refer to?
    Actually i am not sure which service i would want to use. I don't have a lot experience with arb services but i heard Arbitrage Pro used to be pretty good. I also like BetBrain. I guess the best line would be to use some free trail offers and look how it works out.

    thanks for the feedback i guess this would be one of the easier ways to get into profitable sportsbetting
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  7. 03-03-10 11:29 AM #7
    thechaoz
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    Interesting, I'll have to look into this a bit more.
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  8. 03-03-10 02:51 PM #8
    Peregrine Stoop
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    gambling markets are semi-strong efficient in major sports on spreads and totals
    everything goes from there
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  9. 03-03-10 03:29 PM #9
    Raleigh77
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    I dont think there are any arb services for american sports or that target books that u.s players have access to.
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  10. 03-03-10 06:10 PM #10
    byronbb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaug View Post
    I've done this. Success? No. I have lost a lot of money getting surebet-value against pinnacles line. Worst sports have been NCAAB and NBA, with NBA hitting something like 40%. This is while getting 1-1.5 extra points on the spread on every bet.

    The NBA has been brutal for me as well. I don't get it. Is there some trick to the NBA or something??
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  11. 03-03-10 06:21 PM #11
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by byronbb View Post
    The NBA has been brutal for me as well. I don't get it. Is there some trick to the NBA or something??
    I remember last NBA season I got Utah at -5 just as a new injury for their opponent was announced. Got down quite heavy on it as line moved to -7.5 even touching -8 at pinny. Needless to say Utah were never even close to covering. I think injuries might be overrated or something like that, could be part of the explanation.
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  12. 03-03-10 08:28 PM #12
    Boner_18
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    Yeah you might win long term but doesn't this usually boil down to betting steam?
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  13. 03-03-10 09:33 PM #13
    donjuan
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    Yeah you might win long term but doesn't this usually boil down to betting steam?
    For the most part yes. But rec books post rogue numbers that aren't because of steam on a fairly regular basis.
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  14. 03-03-10 09:55 PM #14
    trixtrix
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    obv if you bet only the soft side of arb it's more +ev than betting both sides but obv more volatile. if you're just starting out and cannot sustain a large hit to your br then i suggest you bet both sides and grow your money at a risk-free rate (minus credit spread) until you reach a pt where your br can sustain larger swings..
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  15. 03-03-10 10:46 PM #15
    blix177
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    Base on what trix said. Betting both side might be more profitable. Say if you find an arb, if you only bet one side you might only be willing to wager X. But if you bet both side you might be willing to wager 25X on each side. The net profit of the 2nd bet might be higher than the net profit of the first.
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  16. 03-04-10 08:46 AM #16
    phans3
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    Quote Originally Posted by blix177 View Post
    Base on what trix said. Betting both side might be more profitable. Say if you find an arb, if you only bet one side you might only be willing to wager X. But if you bet both side you might be willing to wager 25X on each side. The net profit of the 2nd bet might be higher than the net profit of the first.
    but the downside is that you have to move a lot of money from book to book if u can't use neteller or somethink like this it would be imo a bad spot for further ev+ bets you couldn't make

    and wouldn't be the risk of limitation be a lot higher? till ur bet would be way bigger the book should give more attention to what ur betting

    just my thoughts
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  17. 03-29-10 11:59 PM #17
    superjeff24
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    I think NBA is the most straight forward sport to bet. A question about arbing: How much can you make on this before the books start to limit you. And how much do they limit your bets to? $500 or is it even worse than that?
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  18. 03-30-10 09:12 AM #18
    Jaug
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    Quote Originally Posted by superjeff24 View Post
    I think NBA is the most straight forward sport to bet. A question about arbing: How much can you make on this before the books start to limit you. And how much do they limit your bets to? $500 or is it even worse than that?
    Much worse, I think you are lucky to keep $100 limit on a lot of euro books at least.
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  19. 03-31-10 11:28 PM #19
    arwar
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    there will be raliegh77
    Last edited by arwar; 03-31-10 at 11:30 PM. Reason: for got to ref original msg
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  20. 04-01-10 01:43 AM #20
    mminkovski
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    betting the soft side is very very profitable in the long run, but you must be ready with a large bank as upsets can happen in the beginning
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  21. 04-19-10 03:17 AM #21
    thorntoc
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    this is free money.
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  22. 04-19-10 05:09 AM #22
    skrtelfan
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    My farts smell sometimes.
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