[BPulse]

Focused on baseball myself... I'll try to start looking at some concepts I've had myself in more depth over the next couple weeks...

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's an NHL freebie for you:

(2016)
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


(2012-2016)
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Very simple: Play Home Dogs off of at least 1 days' rest on Wednesday, ONLY during March, April and May. Take a look at the numbers and let me know if you like what you see!

[Slanina]

Here's an NHL freebie for you:

(2016)
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++


(2012-2016)
http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Very simple: Play Home Dogs off of at least 1 days' rest on Wednesday, ONLY during March, April and May. Take a look at the numbers and let me know if you like what you see!

Only on Wednesday? Haha that's different.

[tsty]

betting games based off of coincidences

o my

[BPulse]

Question for everyone in this thread... and its based somewhat on randomization... but just wondering if this concept deserves any more delving into...

It is a 4 game chase...
I dont have exact numbers on ML's, but the variance back and forth of betting on a team to win or lose should eliminate a situation where high ML's would pile up (very unlikely)... and also may result in some pretty nice bonus payouts occasionally...

2016 30-0
2015 28-2
2014 28-2
2013 30-0
2012 30-0
2011 30-0
2010 29-1
2009 27-3
2008 29-1
2007 30-0

Payout Estimations... would take a lot of work to get actual numbers


1 year (-20.0 Units)
2 years - (+/-0.0 Units)
2 years - (+15.0 Units)
5 years - (+35.0/40.0 Units)

Any thoughts at all... should I get exact numbers... I can explain the concept better if that is needed to answer... I can say it involves no thought process at all and is based on statistical probablity or what I believe to be statistical probability at least... could it be a 10 year false positive over 30 chases a year... or could this actually be something that could prove to profitable if not every year... but eventually over time?

Thanks - BPulse

[BPulse]

If my math is correct are the odds of fliping a coin and guessing it correctly 5 times in a row 3%...???

If that is correct... then the record of 291-9 is actually a perfect statistical match...

If thats the case then the amount of profit shown for what hasn't been inherintly lucky but rather very statistically accurate seems to be very promising...

[Waterstpub87]

Question for everyone in this thread... and its based somewhat on randomization... but just wondering if this concept deserves any more delving into...

It is a 4 game chase...
I dont have exact numbers on ML's, but the variance back and forth of betting on a team to win or lose should eliminate a situation where high ML's would pile up (very unlikely)... and also may result in some pretty nice bonus payouts occasionally...

2016 30-0
2015 28-2
2014 28-2
2013 30-0
2012 30-0
2011 30-0
2010 29-1
2009 27-3
2008 29-1
2007 30-0

Payout Estimations... would take a lot of work to get actual numbers


1 year (-20.0 Units)
2 years - (+/-0.0 Units)
2 years - (+15.0 Units)
5 years - (+35.0/40.0 Units)

Any thoughts at all... should I get exact numbers... I can explain the concept better if that is needed to answer... I can say it involves no thought process at all and is based on statistical probablity or what I believe to be statistical probability at least... could it be a 10 year false positive over 30 chases a year... or could this actually be something that could prove to profitable if not every year... but eventually over time?

Thanks - BPulse

No chase system is based on statistical properties. None at all. Your chase system will not be profitable. You cannot take negative expected value bets and turn them into positive expected value bets simply by betting in a certain way. The only thing that your chase system does is exchange frequency of losses for magnitude of losses.

[BPulse]

No chase system is based on statistical properties. None at all. Your chase system will not be profitable. You cannot take negative expected value bets and turn them into positive expected value bets simply by betting in a certain way. The only thing that your chase system does is exchange frequency of losses for magnitude of losses.

I do understand what you are saying... but as I stated in the next post... it's just like fliiping a coin... and if indeed the chance of a coin falling heads,tails,heads,tails,heads in that exact order is 3%... then the frequency of losses has actually come out the exact amount of times expected over the last 10 years... 9 times over 300 chances... and with those losses has shown great profit...

I probably just don't understand the advanced mathematics behind it... but struggling to see what I'm missing if my much simpler math on that 3% is indeed correct...

[Waterstpub87]

I do understand what you are saying... but as I stated in the next post... it's just like fliiping a coin... and if indeed the chance of a coin falling heads,tails,heads,tails,heads in that exact order is 3%... then the frequency of losses has actually come out the exact amount of times expected over the last 10 years... 9 times over 300 chances... and with those losses has shown great profit...

I probably just don't understand the advanced mathematics behind it... but struggling to see what I'm missing if my much simpler math on that 3% is indeed correct...

I have no idea what you are talking about with the coinflipping thing. For a basic 5 game chase, betting to win one unit, assuming you are betting at -110

50% of the time, you make one unit, winning the first bet
25% of the time, you make one unit, winning on the second bet
12.5% of the time, you make one unit, winning on the third bet
6.25% of the time, you make one unit, winning on the fourth bet
3.125% of the time, you make one unit, winning on the fifth bet
3.125% of the time, you lose 34.1 units, and your chase ends

Profit: .96875
Loss (34.1*.03125)= -1.065
So you lose

Say that you did this 300 times for 300 chases
150 * 1 = 150
75 * 1 = 75
37.5 * 1 = 37.5
18.75 * 1 = 18.75
9.375 * 1 = 9.375
9.375 * -34.1 = -319.6875

Total Profits for 300 chases: 290.625, total losses -319.69, for a net profit of -29.07 or so

Your chase record is 291-9 or so with rounding. You still lose money. You just exchanged a few large losses for a higher winning percentage, and you lose more because you bet more. If you give specifics, we can calculate with your specifics.

[BPulse]

Ok so here is where the divide is occuring... and thank you again for sticking with me here... because I really do appreciate it...

I am simply "sitting out" the first game of the chase... I don't care what happens but it does indeed influence the subsequent bet...

I am actually only doing a 4 game chase... not 5... and have ended up with the 291-9 record...

Although for me to lose... it does indeed need to go Heads,Tails,Heads,Tails,Heads... because again that first game is influencing the first bet before that bet is ever made...

From what I'm gathering should I have expected to see 6% losses... and for some reason am only seeing 3% losses and therefore over 10 years it has just gotten lucky in a fairly large way...

A chase loss for me is around 16 units... not 34... so that's why our numbers are so far off...

[Waterstpub87]

Ok so here is where the divide is occuring... and thank you again for sticking with me here... because I really do appreciate it...

I am simply "sitting out" the first game of the chase... I don't care what happens but it does indeed influence the subsequent bet...

I am actually only doing a 4 game chase... not 5... and have ended up with the 291-9 record...

Although for me to lose... it does indeed need to go Heads,Tails,Heads,Tails,Heads... because again that first game is influencing the first bet before that bet is ever made...

From what I'm gathering should I have expected to see 6% losses... and for some reason am only seeing 3% losses and therefore over 10 years it has just gotten lucky to a fairly large percentage change?...

So your disconnect is the belief that past games effect the winning % of future games. You look at a 5 game series, and you see that rarely do teams lose 5 games in a row, 3.125% or so, I guess this what you mean by the coin flips. Therefore, you wait till a team losses, and then bet them in a four game chase. However, the real world doesn't work like that in. The teams best estimate of losing is the closing vig free moneyline on the other team. It has nothing to do with anything besides that.

Your four game chase will have similar payout pattern as the 5 I posted, except stopping at 4 games. You will lose 5% or so of the net money you bet over the time of your betting if you are failing to make positive expected value plays. On a four game chase, you should win approximately 50% + 25% + 12.5% +6.25% so you should expect 279.75 wins over 300 results, with 20.25 losses. If you've experienced something different, your system ran good. It likely won't going forward.

[BPulse]

So your disconnect is the belief that past games effect the winning % of future games. You look at a 5 game series, and you see that rarely do teams lose 5 games in a row, 3.125% or so, I guess this what you mean by the coin flips. Therefore, you wait till a team losses, and then bet them in a four game chase. However, the real world doesn't work like that in. The teams best estimate of losing is the closing vig free moneyline on the other team. It has nothing to do with anything besides that.

Your four game chase will have similar payout pattern as the 5 I posted, except stopping at 4 games. You will lose 5% or so of the net money you bet over the time of your betting if you are failing to make positive expected value plays. On a four game chase, you should win approximately 50% + 25% + 12.5% +6.25% so you should expect 279.75 wins over 300 results, with 20.25 losses. If you've experienced something different, your system ran good. It likely won't going forward.

It's not wait til a team loses and then bet them to win 4 in a row... tried that before... no dice... but I understand what you are saying... and understand that the 9 losses are not what I should be expecting... rather 20... which means 1 of 2 things... that it's gotten extremely lucky... or that there is some sort of positive correlation to what I am doing... I know that it is far more likely that extremely lucky is the answer... but maybe there is some level of positive correlation to my original concept...

Thanks for helping me to understand the mental block I was having mathematically... to say that past games have no effect on the winning % of future games seems to me like it may not be 100% accurate though... I would think that theres a possible slight edge in the mentality of a team being changed based on their previous result... although that edge probably isn't the difference between 9 and 20 games... but maybe it is...

[Waterstpub87]

It's not wait til a team loses and then bet them to win 4 in a row... tried that before... no dice... but I understand what you are saying... and understand that the 9 losses are not what I should be expecting... rather 20... which means 1 of 2 things... that it's gotten extremely lucky... or that there is some sort of positive correlation to what I am doing... I know that it is far more likely that extremely lucky is the answer... but maybe there is some level of positive correlation to my original concept...

Thanks for helping me to understand the mental block I was having mathematically... to say that past games have no effect on the winning % of future games seems to me like it may not be 100% accurate though... I would think that theres a possible slight edge in the mentality of a team being changed based on their previous result... although that edge probably isn't the difference between 9 and 20 games... but maybe it is...

Doubt it. If it was something that simple it would be priced in, and you would be laying -120 or -115 instead of -110, and you would win more frequently, and lose by higher magnitude.

So call your 280 your expected win. You won an extra 11 times out of 280, so you ran 4% better than normal. That isn't extreme luck.

[BPulse]

Doubt it. If it was something that simple it would be priced in, and you would be laying -120 or -115 instead of -110, and you would win more frequently, and lose by higher magnitude.

So call your 280 your expected win. You won an extra 11 times out of 280, so you ran 4% better than normal. That isn't extreme luck.

running 4% better changes -30 units into +160 units... that's an insane difference for that small a percentage running differently... but I get what you're saying... that it should be built into the price... I guess the thought concept is maybe they don't care what I'm doing... and therefore no need to change the line for everyone else because of how 1 person bets... but again I get what you're saying... thanks again for the explanation...

[TechnicalTrader]

betting games based off of coincidences

o my

Coincidences? Nah, the fact that certain days of the week, days of the month or even periods of certain sports' seasons will affect lines is no coincidence. For each his own though, i'd be happy to see as many people as possible on the other side of my bets... So yes, my strategy, thoughts and systems are all BS, please fade.

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm wondering if value selections can be made based on lines alone. Meaning games are capped strictly on historical and current odds only, no game stats. Injuries would be taken into consideration but that should be in the line. I'm going under the assumption that the bookmakers know what they are doing and everything is incorporated into the odds. Why research all these stats and numbers when it's already been done. The goal is to find the game with the most value...what team is priced right for a buy signal or sell signal.

Can it be as simple as converting a teams win% to odds and comparing it to the game odds?

Just trying to look at a different approach for myself personally. Anyone with any experience, advice, tips, articles etc. please share. Thanks.

OK, here we go. This is EXACTLY what you are looking for... Using nothing but lines from teams previous two games in the MLB.

Play the RL on teams before May 1st, coming off a game as an away favorite, which followed a game where they were a dog with a line higher than +115.
The numbers:

2013: 11-4, +9.33 units, avg line +109.3
2014: 14-6, +9.82 units, avg line -106.4
2015: 7-3, +4.53 units, avg line -118.9
2016: 10-4, +5.54 units, avg line -152.7

I was basically trying to find out how teams do after building momentum, going from a dog to a fav... No matter where their current line is.

Risking 3-5% of BR per bet would be a very nice return over the first 4 weeks of the season..

[William142]

I said sub-.500 FAVORITES. You need to add odds < -105.

I'm skeptical of this. I think if you look hard enough at past data you'll find some weird pattern. It doesn't mean it will win going forward unless you have a valid reason for it. Remember that streak where the presidential election always went the same way as the last Redskins game? Some things, even if unlikely, are just random and you'll probably get killed betting it blindly.

[rkelly110]

Wow!

[cyberbabble]

Tech Trader - very interesting posts

What does WP in the earlier NHL queries stand for?

Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

Tech Trader - very interesting posts

What does WP in the earlier NHL queries stand for?

Thanks

Winning %

[TechnicalTrader]

I said sub-.500 FAVORITES. You need to add odds < -105.

Panthers and Kings are both plays today:

http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[TechnicalTrader]

Panthers and Kings are both plays today:

http://killersports.com/nhl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Two winners.

Not the greatest odds, but money is money.

[tsty]

Do you play any odds? Do you have a cut off price?

How do you decide how much to bet?

[TechnicalTrader]

Do you play any odds? Do you have a cut off price?

How do you decide how much to bet?

It depends on which system I play, how often the system produces signals and the maturity of the sytem I'm playing.

I usually risk between 0.5% to 3% of bankroll per bet.

[Bsims]

I'm wondering if value selections can be made based on lines alone. Meaning games are capped strictly on historical and current odds only, no game stats. Injuries would be taken into consideration but that should be in the line. I'm going under the assumption that the bookmakers know what they are doing and everything is incorporated into the odds. Why research all these stats and numbers when it's already been done. The goal is to find the game with the most value...what team is priced right for a buy signal or sell signal.

Can it be as simple as converting a teams win% to odds and comparing it to the game odds?

Just trying to look at a different approach for myself personally. Anyone with any experience, advice, tips, articles etc. please share. Thanks.

I've developed and tested many systems over the years (20+). I believe the simple answer to your question is yes. But it is not obvious or easy. I've looked at all the major sports, but my primary focus now will be on baseball. Looking back at my records since 1999, baseball is the only sport that shows a profit. I've made a profit in 13 of the 20 years and have returned $1.005 overall. Much of the success in the early years was in scalping before the books wised up. Since then, I've used several approaches ranging from mathematical tools like regression analysis to computer simulations of the games. None have proven successful.

However, I have had success recently with simply using the lines and line history alone to find good wagers. It hasn't been easy, thousands of hours of programming and data analysis. I will keep looking for other techniques, but plan on focusing on what has worked in the past. With my advanced age and health condition, there is a chance that the 2017 MLB season could be my last. So, I'm loading up my accounts and will attack it quite heavily for me. And yes, it will be based on lines and line history only.

[oilcountry99]

Bsims...

I wish you the best of luck this MLB season, keep me posted on your results. Current lines and line history....the exact focus I was looking for. The trick is to implement it and find the sweet spot....if one even exists. I'm not programming guru. I can get my way around excel to an extent but that's about it.

[evo34]

OK, here we go. This is EXACTLY what you are looking for... Using nothing but lines from teams previous two games in the MLB.

Play the RL on teams before May 1st, coming off a game as an away favorite, which followed a game where they were a dog with a line higher than +115.
The numbers:

2013: 11-4, +9.33 units, avg line +109.3
2014: 14-6, +9.82 units, avg line -106.4
2015: 7-3, +4.53 units, avg line -118.9
2016: 10-4, +5.54 units, avg line -152.7

I was basically trying to find out how teams do after building momentum, going from a dog to a fav... No matter where their current line is.

Risking 3-5% of BR per bet would be a very nice return over the first 4 weeks of the season..

Sample. Size.

[evo34]

I'm wondering if value selections can be made based on lines alone. Meaning games are capped strictly on historical and current odds only, no game stats. Injuries would be taken into consideration but that should be in the line. I'm going under the assumption that the bookmakers know what they are doing and everything is incorporated into the odds. Why research all these stats and numbers when it's already been done. The goal is to find the game with the most value...what team is priced right for a buy signal or sell signal.

Can it be as simple as converting a teams win% to odds and comparing it to the game odds?

Just trying to look at a different approach for myself personally. Anyone with any experience, advice, tips, articles etc. please share. Thanks.

Yes. Although baseball is probably the worst sport to try to handicap strictly based on situations.

[TechnicalTrader]

Sample. Size.

Ok, here ya go. Here's a better sample size (much,much larger) of how a favorite who's line has increased in their favor over their last three games going up against a team with regressing odds over their last three games can be extremely potent!

2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

Same system, just looking at home favorites:

2013: 195-106, avg odds -167 +18.4 units
2014: 176-83, avg odds -159 +47.9 units
2015: 187-84, avg odds -166 +58.9 units
2016: 176-96, avg odds -175 +15.2 units

Very, very simple...

[oilcountry99]

Ok, here ya go. Here's a better sample size (much,much larger) of how a favorite who's line has increased in their favor over their last three games going up against a team with regressing odds over their last three games can be extremely potent!

2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

Same system, just looking at home favorites:

2013: 195-106, avg odds -167 +18.4 units
2014: 176-83, avg odds -159 +47.9 units
2015: 187-84, avg odds -166 +58.9 units
2016: 176-96, avg odds -175 +15.2 units

Very, very simple...

TT....nice! Are you able to see how the -1.5RL performs on these selections?

[TechnicalTrader]

TT....nice! Are you able to see how the -1.5RL performs on these selections?

Sure thing (favorites only (top list)):

2013: 190-212, avg odds 130.8 +34.7 units
2014: 184-189, avg odds 137.6 +58.2 units
2015: 186-199, avg odds 134.4 +46.8 units
2016: 180-202, avg odds 127.0 +19.4 units


I'd highly recommend playing both ML and RL. You could make decent money off of this alone!

[oilcountry99]

Sure thing (favorites only (top list)):

2013: 190-212, avg odds 130.8 +34.7 units
2014: 184-189, avg odds 137.6 +58.2 units
2015: 186-199, avg odds 134.4 +46.8 units
2016: 180-202, avg odds 127.0 +19.4 units


I'd highly recommend playing both ML and RL. You could make decent money off of this alone!

sweet, now I just need the query LOL. With killersports there is a way to put in the query so it shows the qualifying games for the day right?

Thanks for the info...

[TechnicalTrader]

Download the MLB manual and play around with it. If you have zero IT experience (like myself), you should be able to learn the SDQL language relatively quickly... I will be playing this system, so I'd prefer not to hand out the query...

Day Games: DAY
Night Games: NGT

Previous game, night game: p:NGT

again, just download the manual, you'll figure it out.

[evo34]

Ok, here ya go. Here's a better sample size (much,much larger) of how a favorite who's line has increased in their favor over their last three games going up against a team with regressing odds over their last three games can be extremely potent!

2013: 257-146, avg odds -162 +25.6 units
2014: 244-130, avg odds -154 +53.6 units
2015: 261-124, avg odds -159 +77.7 units
2016: 249-133, avg odds -166 +36.6 units

Same system, just looking at home favorites:

2013: 195-106, avg odds -167 +18.4 units
2014: 176-83, avg odds -159 +47.9 units
2015: 187-84, avg odds -166 +58.9 units
2016: 176-96, avg odds -175 +15.2 units

Very, very simple...

Interesting. Thanks.

[Slanina]

Sure thing (favorites only (top list)):

2013: 190-212, avg odds 130.8 +34.7 units
2014: 184-189, avg odds 137.6 +58.2 units
2015: 186-199, avg odds 134.4 +46.8 units
2016: 180-202, avg odds 127.0 +19.4 units


I'd highly recommend playing both ML and RL. You could make decent money off of this alone!

What numbers are these for?