must be the worst type of bet you can do without a doubt
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10-26-16 11:44 PM #1
Why do people bet season long futures?
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10-27-16 02:19 AM #2
Different things for different people.
~50% return on investment over 6 months probably looks awesome to some people.
There's probably less variance taking season long bets so true odds estimates would be more accurate.
Also offers the chance to further reduce risk with hedging positions.
The person who likes these sorts of bets probably thinks you are the one taking the worst sort of bets, just because you want to see a result every day and cant be patient for 6 months.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: packerd_00
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10-27-16 02:22 AM #3
if you follow some of the tennis forum posters you can see some that focus on tournament result betting, which take 5-6 days, and how they hedge etc. That's the same thinking as a season long football prop bettor. Just on a shorter scale.
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10-27-16 04:22 PM #4
In rare cases betting season long future is a better bet than backing the team in question on game-by-game basis. A somewhat relevant illustration is taking Ohio State +10 in the CFB playoff final against favored Alabama. The tricky part is that if Ohio State even makes it to the final the line will be under a touchdown based on the power rankings at that point.
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10-27-16 06:58 PM #5
Can't generalize. Need odds.
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10-27-16 06:58 PM #6
Could be a diversify tactic, long term type of investment with hedge opportunity down the road.
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10-27-16 07:32 PM #7
+EV bets are +EV regardless of the time frame
why did i start buying positions in Clinton at -175 in May?
cuz that shit was +EV.
additionally, if you can't afford to have a certain percentage of your BR tied up for a few months, quit gambling nowPoints Awarded:
Hu$tle gave statnerds 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-27-16 08:23 PM #8
Could be very profitable
Its like an investment
They dont mind having money tied up for long periods of time
Hedging can be done at different times to guarantee profit
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10-27-16 09:49 PM #9
Needs to be significantly +EV to be worthwhile though. There is the time cost of money and the risk that your book goes under
Originally Posted by statnerds
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10-27-16 10:21 PM #10
Is it really thou? Originally Posted by statnerds
is a 10% edge the same if it's on a game that will be played next week compared to something that will take 2 months to finish?
The more I think about it the more I think betting season long bets is retarded
Is there something you can use to calculate how much EV you would need compared to how long it takes for it to be worthwhile?
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10-27-16 10:34 PM #11
They are good bets if you can afford them. If don't want to tie your money up because you don't have much, they are not as attractive. If they win, they are great bets regardless. If they lose, they aren't.
Haralobos Voulgaris started his gambling career with a $70,000 season-log bet on the Lakers. It turned out a really good bet.Last edited by Buffalo Nickle; 10-27-16 at 10:37 PM.
Points Awarded:
GP gave Buffalo Nickle 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-27-16 11:05 PM #12
I would value this in the following way: Originally Posted by tsty
Assume a discount rate equal to: future bet % of bankroll * daily turnover * normal ev per bet
Pv of futures bet = Futures bet amount * (1 + estimated return) / (1+ discount rate)^betting days till settlement
Simple example, consider that you have a futures bet on the Jacksonville jaguars at +300 to win the afc south a 25% chance of winning. Say that you estimate it should be close to 200, for a winning percentage of 33.4% chance of winning. This gives you an 8.4% return on investment. You bet 50 dollars for an expected fv of 54.2
Your bankroll is 1000. You bet 300 a week in the nfl, averaging a 1% return on investment.
Your discount rate would be .05*.30*.01= .00015 =(1+.00015)^17=1.0015
54.2/
1.0015
54.11 would be the estimate present value.
assume an example of the same numbers, but instead baseball with a team to win the division. Assuming 180 day season
your discount rate would be closer to 1.027, giving you an estimate present value of 52.77.Points Awarded:
tsty gave Waterstpub87 42 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-27-16 11:11 PM #13
that bet seems ridiculously bad Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
might as well go all in on black
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10-28-16 05:59 PM #14
The only use I have for futures is betting real longshots to win the Super Bowl that I feel are good bets to make the playoffs, setting up nice hedges. For example, it would not surprise me if Tennessee wins the AFC South, so betting them at 125/1 to win Super Bowl could allow you to lock in some very nice profit if they do win the division, more profit you would make than betting them +395 to win the South.
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10-28-16 06:09 PM #15
That's why he is a multi-millionaire and you aren't. Originally Posted by tsty
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10-28-16 06:41 PM #16
Winning that season long future is not worth at all, death/win by 1000 cuts or torture.
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10-28-16 08:38 PM #17
As Opti said, different things for different people... I live in Cincinnati, and absolutely refuse to back the Bengals as long as Mike Brown is alive, so I lay down a good amount on one team that I figure can win the Super Bowl... Makes me a fan of that team, if only for a season...
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10-28-16 08:50 PM #18
bet all futures in vegas u clowns???
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10-28-16 08:51 PM #19
Huh? Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
Are you really sitting here telling me that every current pro sports better has never made a bad bet?
Placing your whole net worth on a season long future is horrendous
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11-03-16 01:46 AM #20
Agreed. If you can't throw a unit or two on something that is going to take awhile to settle you probably aren't making mathematically correct decisions anyhow. Originally Posted by statnerds
Seem to remember an interview where he admitted in hindsight it wasn't a wise decision. Originally Posted by tsty
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11-03-16 12:42 PM #21Paint my casket black with a big ass #3
Become A Pro!
Join Date: 10-25-07Posts: 17,879Betpoints: 1053
Cause like opti said there's room for hedges as the season progresses. Also less variance. If fact, I don't even know why I replied. What opti said. And it's fun to be like, I told you Eastern Michigan would cover their wins total a 1/3 of the way into the season.
It's for people that actually do research and don't tail or blind bet line moves.
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11-03-16 06:07 PM #22
I know what today's present value of this retarded bet:
Parlay wager 375594435-1 posted on Monday, May 2 2016 8:09PM was deleted on Thursday, Nov 3 2016 1:32PM.
Hockey - 10505 Pittsburgh Penguins wins series 4-2 +315 for Game
Baseball - 25001 Chicago Cubs win World Series +395 for Game
Reason: Ticket stuck in the system. Manual adjustment made
Contact customer support if you need further clarification regarding this deleted ticket.
+1954
i realize i will never convince you enough that time periods are really meaningless if you are talking strictly in
+EV terms. really no reason to point out the CLV on the above Cubs future. even saying when the rest of the world had
hendricks at -145 i had him at +1954 will really do nothing to alter your perspective.
i'll try this final one though. you identify a future that satisfies your threshold for profitability and you consider how
you can make that even more profitable. the more i read the more you sound like a day trader. these things are stocks.
i take long positions, you would rather focus strictly on 12-18 hour contracts and hope you can somehow overcome the
cost of frequent trading, where we won't even touch on Gambler's Ruin that erodes the example of value given above.
you can average 1% return all you want, but the more you play, the longer and steeper your losing streaks will become.
my bad, looks like we touched on it anyway. i'll link short and long term items together if i find them to be +EV.
like this one:
Pendingmy only word of caution at this point is that if you continue to believe there is only one way to win long term at gambling4 Team Parlay Win 9/19/16 8:30pm NFL Football 289 Philadelphia Eagles +137* vs Chicago Bears Cancelled 9/19/16 8:30pm NFL Football 289 Philadelphia Eagles/Chicago Bears Over 43 -110* Pending 11/8/16 8:00am Politics Other Sports 32 Democrat wins Presidential Election -220* vs Republican wins Presidential Election 9/20/16 6:38am Win 9/20/16 7:05pm Props Baseball 25001 Chicago Cubs win World Series +210* vs Field wins World Series (Fixed Price)
you are in for some growing pains my friend.
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11-03-16 06:26 PM #23
I agree that there are uses for online open parlays that pay the correct odds as long as you can get them.
I've had some of those open for a very long time to ensure the best bets go into it.
An advantage is an advantage.
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11-04-16 07:37 AM #24
I don't want to seem like an ass but I don't think you understand what that word means. Originally Posted by reigle9
But hey when you are being an arrogant prick then I shouldn't feel bad.
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11-04-16 02:52 PM #25
Bob has said that was a bad bet. He said something along the lines of there was value, but looking back it wasn't worth it to bet everything he had (obviously) even though it won Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
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11-05-16 02:48 PM #26
I place a future prop on a team usually i watch them every week and learn all their stats, good strengths and weakness too. plus u can HEDGE OUT
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11-05-16 03:10 PM #27
He has made some money playing poker. There is no evidence he's a lifetime winner in sports. Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
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11-05-16 08:21 PM #28
Hardly the worse. Originally Posted by tsty
Made a bundle with KC in 2015, there was tremendous value there and I jumped all over it.
They were one out away in 2014 from winning it all, 2015 they upgraded, and Vegas still pissed on them pre-season.
God bless the Royals.
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11-06-16 01:53 PM #29
Futures are great but only in some sports not all.. For example in MMA I don't touch them anymore..
I still have a future bet pending from over a year ago - Rhona Rousey vs Miesha Tate.. That fight was cancelled a long time ago but the books are still holding that bet as pending until they match up again in the future which they probably won't..
No time limit with MMA futures... Fights get cancelled alot due to injury...
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11-06-16 07:54 PM #30
There's a lot of evidence. He was an employee at an airport and bet his $70,000 savings. He now has millions. He did not win it at poker. Originally Posted by evo34
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11-07-16 04:17 AM #31
Are you trolling now? Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
If I went to the casino 2 years ago and won 10k playing BJ and now I am worth millions...Does that make me a winner at blackjack?
2k posts cmon man
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11-07-16 01:38 PM #32
D-U-M Dumb!!! Originally Posted by tsty
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12-18-16 08:51 PM #33
You posting what you've read does not qualify as evidence. Originally Posted by Buffalo Nickle
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12-19-16 06:36 AM #34
I've met him, if it helps. It's all real. He has nothing to gain from pretending, he doesn't sell anything. None of it was poker though, he may not even be up overall in bankroll or staking others. I don't know how it all started, but he made a killing during the 2001 series when Kobe and Shaq were together. Originally Posted by evo34
I knew before though. He live tweeted himself being court-side for game 7 at Golden State with his girl, and you could easily see him on TV. I also have a connection in Monaco who knows where he lives now. Fakers don't get to retire to Monaco, that place weeds you out fast.
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12-19-16 11:37 PM #35
A poster knows a guy who knows a guy who knows he lives in Monaco? Good enough for me! Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves
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