[DedesSports]

Hi,

I want to get an easy was to get an estimate of by how much a chances change for a team to score next goal, or basket if it has control of the ball or not.

To be more clear, imagine a basketball game before starting. What is the chance team A scores any giving try ? And teams B chances ?

Now that the game has started and A has control of the ball, by how much are they more favorites to score ?


thanks

[bozeman]

The chance of scoring on an attack in soccer is an average number of goals by team over number of possessions. An average number of possessions per team is around 100 average number of goals is 1.5,
so the chance of scoring on each possession is 1,5/100 equals 1.5 %, therefore a team that has the ball first is that much closer to win the game than the opponent given other factors are even.

[DedesSports]

The chance of scoring on an attack in soccer is an average number of goals by team over number of possessions. An average number of possessions per team is around 100 average number of goals is 1.5,
so the chance of scoring on each possession is 1,5/100 equals 1.5 %, therefore a team that has the ball first is that much closer to win the game than the opponent given other factors are even.

Do you think a similar logic can be applied for other sports, like Basketball or Handball ?