[TU]

Does anyone have any advice on how to adjust year to year. I've created an NBA model using recent data. It's done very well ATS and line value but as you know, each year pace seems to change. Would I be crazy if I just adjust the pace numbers a month into the season? Just looking for ideas.

[benjy]

Is pace, or the underlying figures, distributed normally?

If so, run a t-test with the null hypothesis that pace is the same as prior year(s).

If and when it's different enough according to your criteria then change it.