[GunShard]

When a sportsbook makes the favorite -1000 and the underdog +500 on the same game. The sportsbook has the edge over the bettor.

When you bet on the underdog +500, you are betting $100 to make a profit of $500 against the sportsbook.
When you bet on the favorite -1000, the sportsbook is betting $100 to make a profit of $1000 against the bettor.
Most bettors never see the point of view of the sportsbook betting against you from a reverse point of view.
I just wanted to point this out as many do not notice this and why bettors should avoid juiced lines.


I'll add my personal rules to this thread that can improve your sports betting:


1. Money management. Bet less than 5% of your total current bankroll per bet. Use Kelly Criterion Calculator.


For example:
If your total bankroll is $2000.
5% of your $2000 is $100.
If you lose your $100 bet, now you have $1900.
5% of your $1900 is $95.
Now you bet $95 instead of $100 because of your total current bankroll has changed.
Bet like this and you can either slowly gain or slowly lose but can never be completely broke.


2. Be a strategic gambler by picking your spots and wait for the right opportunity. Never be a compulsive gambler by betting because it's your favorite team or for the action. Do your research.


3. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession. Be discipline.


More helpful advice:

- Covers Consensus "Fade the public": http://contests.covers.com/Consensus...us/ALL/Overall

- Kelly Criterion Calculator "Money management": http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/

[statnerds]

every line is juiced. not disagreeing with your post, just stating you only took the thought halfway.

teach this forum how to convert all the ML to probabilities and add those to see if it does indeed equal 100%. Works on any game, futures, props and from 2 teams to 20, 30 or 50. The exercise alone would be valuable for the novice player to understand just how much of an edge, or at least how far the book is deviating from the true value, the house holds. lower edges suggests more player-friendly book. Where you play is a large component of money management.

[dhristov211]

do not play lines above -500

[bettilimbroke999]

Bookmaker is the worst book in the world to bet favorites....never seen anything like this shithole...if its -800 everywhere (already heavily juiced) bookmaker will have it at -950 and of course they keep the underdog at the same line as everywhere else.

Basically if you bet the dog you get paid the same at bookmaker as everywhere else...if u bet the favorite you get raped. Here's what a lot of ppl dont even get about juiced lines....even when you win you're being robbed

Think about it if the line is -800 and you bet 1000 its gonna pay 125...well if bookmaker as they always do puts the line at -1000 and you bet a 1000 you win a 100...you just got robbed out of 25 AND THAT"S ON A WIN...if youd lost youd been robbed out of 200 DOLLARS

For ppl who like to parlay big favorites this robbery just multiplies itself

[Cookie Monster]

Learned well have you, my padawan. Much to learn you still have.

You talked about Kelly betting. In its formula there is everything you need to learn about gambling. Do you remember the three variables in the formula?

1.- Fraction of bankroll. Two keywords here. Fraction tells you about money management. You never bet your bankroll all-in. And bankroll is way deeper than "money set aside to gamble". When you learn about it, you discover about money utility functions. Then you understand the difference between bankroll growth and expected win.

2.- Probability of winning the bet. The holy grail. If you are better than the market on calculating the probability of a win, you are very close to be a winning player. Beware! The field is full or corpses of people believing they could achieve it. Then you learn about modeling and backtesting. Hint: Do not try to beat the hardest markets (NFL spreads), you should start with softer ones, like obscure leagues and props.

3.- Odds offered. Nothing to see here, it is the line offered by the bookie, right? No. To be a winning bettor you should always shop for the best line. You must have money on many different books, that half point or 5 cents are worth a lot on the long run. Reduced juice and opinionated bookies are gold (too bad opinionated often means quick to limit )

[larco15]

Cookie Monster is a great man. Very valuable. Read Cookie Monster and then read Hareeba. The difference between a thoroughbred and a donkey.

[Redwing41]

Can you help explain the expected win of kelly within X amount of games?

[Hu$tle]

do not play lines above -500

Yep this

[Hu$tle]

Learned well have you, my padawan. Much to learn you still have.

You talked about Kelly betting. In its formula there is everything you need to learn about gambling. Do you remember the three variables in the formula?

1.- Fraction of bankroll. Two keywords here. Fraction tells you about money management. You never bet your bankroll all-in. And bankroll is way deeper than "money set aside to gamble". When you learn about it, you discover about money utility functions. Then you understand the difference between bankroll growth and expected win.

2.- Probability of winning the bet. The holy grail. If you are better than the market on calculating the probability of a win, you are very close to be a winning player. Beware! The field is full or corpses of people believing they could achieve it. Then you learn about modeling and backtesting. Hint: Do not try to beat the hardest markets (NFL spreads), you should start with softer ones, like obscure leagues and props.

3.- Odds offered. Nothing to see here, it is the line offered by the bookie, right? No. To be a winning bettor you should always shop for the best line. You must have money on many different books, that half point or 5 cents are worth a lot on the long run. Reduced juice and opinionated bookies are gold (too bad opinionated often means quick to limit )

Good post. To add to #3 live odds offered. You can do CRAZY bet combos and hedges using live. Could have had +300 okc and +110 gs ml in last game. Can make your own middles etc. the lines change faster and wider spreads in game and certain bets have higher variance (easier for tables to turn) if u can get on a big +#

[gopolks]

I take multis, I bet underdogs every time, but never take an underdog if they are paying more $4 to win for every dollar put on.

had some nice payouts doing this, but of course had my fair share of losses. Probably at break even over the years.

[GunShard]

Good luck everyone. Knowledge is power.

[QuantumLeap]

Seems like the books are getting worse and worse at these large favorites.

[GunShard]

I won 12 of my last 13 NFL bets and kept a record of my bets on Wagerminds:
http://www.wagerminds.com/Profile/GunShard

Professional sports betting is very real. If I can win, so can you.