I’m solely talking about sports betting here and not about other markets. I am aware of the debates there as well.
Successful sports bettors often use an
adjusted Kelly stake but it is still likely costing them money. Even the most successful bettors out there get these principles wrong.
Name dropping Billy Walters is about as “amateur hour” as it gets bro. I hear Warren Buffet use some form of Kelly Criterion too.
I have no problem with the system; it works well, as any betting system would, as long as long as the winning expectations are met.
But this is sportsbetting and the percentages will vary from the expectation as the reality of standard deviation sets in.
If you want to deal in facts, know that mathematical fact is a bettor’s next 20, 25, or even 30 bets are NOT likely to be settled (won or lost) at a rate in line with the long term winning expectation…not at all.
This pretty much blows the true Kelly staking strategy out of the water for sportsbetting, especially for the OP.