This is a ridiculous notion.
This, along with the spreadsheet referenced earlier, gets at the very essence of what I am trying to say about the difference between amateurs and professionals. Some lessons you just have to learn.
Bettors just don’t understand that, even with a long term advantage, how bad it can go in the short term.
Even with a perfectly known edge, of course there will be variance. You simply will not get 6 out of every 10 white tickets, every time. Let’s make the math easier. Different markets may yield a slightly different plan, but let’s talk NFL…which I will focus on.
If you have an expectation of winning 57.5% of the time in the NFL, then on any given week, you have the basically the same probability of going 12-2 as you do of going 4-10.
Think about it. If you increase your bets after the 12-2 week and then go 4-10, or decrease after that 4-10 week and then hit 12-2, you will have a 16-12 record. That’s hitting over 57% of your bets and you will have lost money.
We are dealing with applied mathematics here. It’s real easy to create long term progressive betting schemes on paper. They always seem so good. The reason for this is that you guys can manage your percentages on paper.
But this is real life. And in real life, those percentages cannot be managed.