[Penguin7]

So to clear rollover at a few books I started doing this thing betting basketball both NBA and NCAA and wonder if it's actually a good idea or not. at one book I'll play any team that is -1 to -2.5 on the spread then bet the other team on the money line as long as the money line is +120 or better. I figure most of my bets will end in a push or a $10+ profit. I'm curious if anyone has data showing how often a favorite of 2.5 or less wins the game but does not cover the spread. thanks

[Buffalo Nickle]

Are you up on them and just want to get out with minimal damage? Or is this going to be your strategy for beating them?

[Buffalo Nickle]

I don't know what the push rate is but you are probably going to push three times in 100 bets and lose. Use your average bet size and do the math and see where it comes out.

[Waterstpub87]

Push rate on 2 is approximately 4%

Favorite wins by 1 2.27% of the time

Vig Free, you would get 119 or so on a moneyline dog of +2.

With discount vig, you would get 113 or so, with dog winning approximate 45.61% of the time

Favorite is -2 price -105, winning 46%, with the 4% push.

so .4561 *.08 = .036488
.46* 0 = 0
.04*-1=-.04
.0227*-2.05= -0.0465

So with discounted juice, you are losing approximately 5% every time you bet, given the fact that you are paying the juice on both ends. If you were to bet on side, you would expect to lose a little under 2.5%.

[Penguin7]

I'm up about 7k on them and they keep limiting me on what and how much I can bet. So just trying to break even and clear 15k rollover. for -1 im playing either -105 or -110 odds and only playing it if I can get the dog at 10cents better than I'm laying. for 1 and 1.5 faves I'm only playing -105 and -110 odds if I can get +120 or better on the dog and for 2 and 2.5 I'm looking for +130 or better. Figured this would be around a 5% average loss which would be close to -1k if I only do this to clear the rollover but not the worst result

[Buffalo Nickle]

That's a lot of work. Drop your bet sizes way down and coinflip through using the bets you'd normally make. You don't need to be betting max limits at this point.

[Waterstpub87]

Which Book is this?

[Penguin7]

Which Book is this?

Once I have my money I will write an in depth review

[Waterstpub87]

Once I have my money I will write an in depth review

Try submitting a compliant to SBR. They might be able to help.

[hus7ler]

just bet on all 3 sides of soccers games.... this is prolly ur best option