[ohdecas]

Hello,

i am back with another mongo thread. I think it's my third or fouth year of sport betting, luckily for me I never lost much cause I never broke the rule "bet only with the cash you don't need". Like everyone here I had some good runs and some degen plays that costs me big parts of my bankroll.
Now I am sitting here with my bankroll of 0.73$ deciding if it's time to make another reload (15$->50$ like alwais)..
In these 2/3 years of betting I:
-[ALL SPORTS] Used statistics to make big parlay with big payouts --> COMPLETE FAIL
-[SOCCER] Used statistics to predict corners in soccer --> WORKED OK FIRST YEAR THEN I DROPPED IT CAUSE OF ODDS
-[SOCCER] Used a pyhtagorean formula to calculate my own standings and my own model --> STILL IN PAPER TESTING (no time no backtest it cause lack of time and database/programming skills)
-[SOCCER] Tried to fade the plays with most consensus (looking at 4-5 forums everday and fading the most quoted plays)
-[BASKETBALL]Used statistics to predict TOTALS --> COMPLETE FAIL
-[BASKETBALL]Used statistics to predict TOTALS and going the other way--> NEED FURTHER PAPER TESTING
-[HOCKEY] Myself played hockey 9 years from Age of 5 to 14 so I tried to beat Swiss league only by gut feelings --> FAIL
-[SOCCER] Tried to hit 54+% Asian Handicap on soccer single games. --> FAIL
-[TENNIS] Tried statistical betting based on field/h2h/past performance/points to defend/... --> better than soccer but still... FAIL
-[SOCCER] 2/3 favoured teams parlay --> WORKED OK FIRST YEAR THAN SHIT --> FAIL

Luckily for me I don't knows NFL/Baseball/Cricket or horse racing so now I have quiet more money than I should have knowing these 4 sports. I am also sure that I tried many many other methods or approachs that now I don't remember.

Will be interesting to have your opinions regards your approach while betting on sports. I doubt that will be a successfull punter showing us the way but at least we can make a list of things THAT DON'T WORK and try to save some time and money when your/my brain is ready to give you/me the NEXT penetrating FAIL TIP!!!

Sorry for my english it's shit, self learning sucks..

[Ruifgalmeida]

Bonus Woring , and follow some capper that nows what is doing.

[ohdecas]

follow some capper that nows what is doing.

I think it's the worst advice I want to see there... I wanna know how to fish i don't wanna go buy fishes.. And what give you the security that the cappers you are following are on the positive side? You have time to follow everyone of his bets? You can get same odds? And if these "positive" cappers are just on a lucky winning spree?

[hus7ler]

a professional is an amateur that never quit. youre on the right track

[ohdecas]

This amateur need a confidence boost!!

[xdodger19]

I think tennis is the way to go. There are many variables and wins can be at +150 and so forth.
You have to beat the vig and use moneyline Parlays and so forth.

You have to fix the play in your favor.

For instance take UCIrvine moneyline -200 rather than the spread

you have to manipulate everything in your favor using
all the tools you got, live plays, moneylines, parlays,
if someone is picking winners, play them

[Hu$tle]

I think it's the worst advice I want to see there... I wanna know how to fish i don't wanna go buy fishes.. And what give you the security that the cappers you are following are on the positive side? You have time to follow everyone of his bets? You can get same odds? And if these "positive" cappers are just on a lucky winning spree?

You got the wrong mindset. Two brains are better than one. A website of sports enthusiasts adding the conversation provides an edge as well. Cappers are people too. They either win or they lose bottom line. If someone told u the winning lottery numbers every few weeks would you use them or try to find your own? Try and use cappers picks as a learning experience. What do the winning picks have in common? What is he looking at? What kind of teams and situations does he CONSISTENTLY pick. Hate to say it but systems are fine and dandy but watching every game religiously and knowing as much as possible about the teams and matchups are the way to go, usually traits a good capper posseses.