[CGBatch]

I'm in a contest where I have to pick the outcome of 5 sporting events per day. Recently they introduced a feature where you could win money based on achieving streaks of days where you get at least 3 of the 5 picks correct. In the 5 months I've played the game my picks have averaged 63% (I'm keen to calculate betting odds and individual games range from 50% to almost certainties; one recent pick was -1800). Using this I get 73.3% chance of getting at least 3 correct. The prize table goes as follows (and I've calculated the odds using the compounded 73.3%):

Days	Prize	Odds	EV
2	$ 1	53.73%	$ 0.54
4	$ 3	28.87%	$ 0.87
6	$ 6	15.51%	$ 0.93
8	$ 10	8.33%	$ 0.83
10	$ 20	4.48%	$ 0.90
15	$ 50	0.95%	$ 0.47
20	$ 250	0.20%	$ 0.50
30	$ 1,000	0.01%	$ 0.09
50	$ 100,000	0.00%	$ 0.02
60	$ 1,000,000	0.00%	$ 0.01

Using the above my best option is the 6 days for $6 method as it generates a $0.93 EV.

The newest update includes a feature where if you go 5-for-5 (roughly 9.92% chance using a 63% individual pick rate) it increases your streak by 2 days instead of one. I don't know how to incorporate this in the above math. I tried to calculate it as .6337 (odds of 3 or 4) +.0992*2=.8322, but I feel this no longer reflects the odds of getting less than 3.

Lastly, as the above is predicated on the assumption of a long-term 63% can anyone suggest how to use odds for an individual day once known. For instance if I know a certain days picks give me a 60% or 80% chance of streaking, should I keep going or stop.

Any help would be much appreciated! Also I don't know if it's against the rules of this forum but I can provide the name of the game and my referral code if anyone is interested.

[trytrytry]

where do you get this opportunity of +EV?

[trytrytry]

refer code no never do that...

but intersting places for +EV gambling options ok to discuss..

dont give the full web site link however, but describe it enough with a name or workds that a google search could find it is generally OK

[KVB]

refer code no never do that...

but intersting places for +EV gambling options ok to discuss..

dont give the full web site link however, but describe it enough with a name or workds that a google search could find it is generally OK

Never hurts to trytrytry!