[Lavoisier]

Hi!

I am ready to change my betting patterns on horses and I would like to know by maths which is the
best choice I can make and by which standards.

My choices are:

A. Value bet on horses
B. Arbitrage same horses on betfair (com 1.7% money usually moves to bookies)

Cheers to all.

[Itsamazing777]

Wow 2k views and not 1 reply.
I have no idea though lol

[matekus]

Lavoisier,

Aaron Brown, author of The Poker Face Of Wall Street, points out that: "...Strategies with positive expected return less than their variance (or standard deviation squared) of return are guaranteed to blow up eventually. In practice, they produce tremendous profits for a period, but eventually they all fail. Their expected value is high, but volatility drag gets them all in the end..."
In simple terms, only choose trading strategies with long-term positive median outcomes. In your example and without seeing the actual distributions of trading data for each strategy, I would expect the arbitrage option will be the only one likely to have long-term profit potential.

matekus
[Illiud Latine dici non potest].

[Martinr]

Seems to me that Aaron Brown might have had trouble calculating his edge.
Value betting in horse racing is going to take you a lot further down the road to profit than picking peanuts up through Arbing will.
Arbing is probably a surer way to make money, because you don't need to work on finding that edge. Arbing reminds me a bit of collecting aluminium cans to take to the recycling yard.
Finding value in horse racing markets is pretty easy if you have access to fixed odds markets. You have to keep in mind the fact that value is a moving target though.
I imagine working with Pari-mutuel betting pools would be very difficult (possibly easier in the trifecta/exacta etc pools).
]

[xdodger19]

A good arbitrage situation could be in live betting?