1. #1
    Timmay
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    Can casino bonuses be +E.V.?

    I'm wondering what the roll off needs to be break even e.v. if they're doubling your money.


    Thanks.

  2. #2
    JoeyBagels
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    It depends on the bonus terms (qualified games, RO calculation, RO amount, bonus amount). If you can play a game with <1% burn (say PS blackjack or some VP) and reasonable rollover reqs with a large enough bonus you can theoretically clear the bonus at a profit if you run close to expectation. You have to factor in cost of $$$ fees and exchange depending where you live these days.

    You also have to guage the validity of the games themselves. 10 years ago i would have laughed at anyone claiming that casino games were "rigged" but with all that's come to light i no longer think it's unlikely given the actions of gambling operators in the past 10 years. Maybe they hire some programmer who puts in some killswitch code that activates if a punter wins too much that decreases VP payback even under PS from 99.XX% to <90% until a limit is reached. It's hard to prove without a bunch of interations under those specific circumstances that something simply can't be attributed to variance. I know the scenario is inplausible given the supposed auditing of casino sites but it has been scratching the back of my mind these last two years.
    Last edited by JoeyBagels; 06-30-15 at 11:29 AM.

  3. #3
    SharpAngles
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    circa 2002 you could make a living off wagering and poker bonuses. Every shop was giving redeposit bonuses at least once a month with very easy terms. The level of free money available was sick and moving it was easy. Too bad the operators have figured out the fish will come no matter what and stopped the gravy train. I stopped bonus whoring years ago but have heard nowadays you'd be happy to find neutral Ev and it's gonna be tough to find +Ev spots that are worth the time and cost of getting funds into and out of the books.

  4. #4
    Timmay
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeyBagels View Post
    It depends on the bonus terms (qualified games, RO calculation, RO amount, bonus amount). If you can play a game with <1% burn (say PS blackjack or some VP) and reasonable rollover reqs with a large enough bonus you can theoretically clear the bonus at a profit if you run close to expectation. You have to factor in cost of $$$ fees and exchange depending where you live these days.

    You also have to guage the validity of the games themselves. 10 years ago i would have laughed at anyone claiming that casino games were "rigged" but with all that's come to light i no longer think it's unlikely given the actions of gambling operators in the past 10 years. Maybe they hire some programmer who puts in some killswitch code that activates if a punter wins too much that decreases VP payback even under PS from 99.XX% to <90% until a limit is reached. It's hard to prove without a bunch of interations under those specific circumstances that something simply can't be attributed to variance. I know the scenario is inplausible given the supposed auditing of casino sites but it has been scratching the back of my mind these last two years.

    I hear you. What's PS?
    Say you play blackjack at 80x rolloff depositing $100 and they match you. So you got $200 and you have to roll of 8k?

    Also I'd be playing poker and probably get some sort of rakeback bonus which will help with the fees.

  5. #5
    Timmay
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    Quote Originally Posted by SharpAngles View Post
    circa 2002 you could make a living off wagering and poker bonuses. Every shop was giving redeposit bonuses at least once a month with very easy terms. The level of free money available was sick and moving it was easy. Too bad the operators have figured out the fish will come no matter what and stopped the gravy train. I stopped bonus whoring years ago but have heard nowadays you'd be happy to find neutral Ev and it's gonna be tough to find +Ev spots that are worth the time and cost of getting funds into and out of the books.


    I'm guessing if you leave some in then you don't have to redeposit. Yea, I used to do a redeposit for poker every month so I could get that bonus. I think it was 200 or 250 and that was nice because I was only making 500-750 a month. So I was making 25% on that bonus.

    If someone is crushing hard in those bonuses. What would stop them from making another account? Since it's against the rules. What would happen? They would take your money right? Since it's offshore they can't put you in court or anything right?

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