[swagbro420]

I've made projections for pitchers and batters, but I'm unsure how to put it all together to make accurate moneyline/total projections. Does a 10% higher OPS translate into 10% more runs? What about a 10% higher/lower projected ERA? Should projected pitching and projecting batting be weighted equally? And how do interactions between pitching/batting projections work? If a team has 10% better than average batting is going against a team that has 10% worse than average pitching projections, will that team score 1.1*1.1=1.21 times as many runs? I assumed that the answer to all of these is 'yes', but I don't know if that's right, or how it could be tested.

[a4u2fear]

I'm not a baseball guy, but if you've developed a model, you should test the model against games that weren't used to develop the model.

Baseball is difficult because you could have a great pitcher with a great ERA, but performs terribly verse some teams and batters; so if you haven't incorporated that somehow, those games will look like your model is far off

If you have compared two teams statistically, you may want to use pythagorean to convert to ML, the article below may help you or spark some interest

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/h...thbasedNHL.htm

[evo34]

10 pts. of OPS for a team is worth about 0.13 runs, or ~1.5% change in win probability.