1. 12-13-14 01:56 PM #1
    Waterstpub87
    Slan go foill
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    Beating the closing line?

    Is my math correct:

    Over 100 NBA totals plays, beaten the closer on 48, lost against closer on 33, pushed closer on 19.

    Cumulatively, I have beaten the closer by 33.5, so roughly beating the closer by a 3rd of a point.

    Average total is 200, value half point is 4.6 cents according to sbr, so 66% is 3 cents. Betting on Heritage so -108 on sides.

    So my equivalent juice is -105.
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  2. 12-13-14 03:40 PM #2
    Buffalo Nickle
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    You didn't beat the close on 52 of 100 = Coinflipper.
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  3. 12-15-14 08:02 AM #3
    antonyp22
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    It's not quite as simple as "you didn't beat the close on 52 of 100 = coinflipper"

    There still seems to be positive closing line value here and he has beaten the closing line more times than it has gone against him.

    Some promising signs here, especiallly in an efficient market like the NBA. Not an expert into what CLV translates into what long term winning percentage though
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  4. 12-15-14 04:51 PM #4
    worldseriescash
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    No value
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