Hi
I wrote a staistical model for mma predictions using machine learning tools. I cross validated this model on the last 1000 mma fights in the ufc using a very basic betting strategy - If the prediction is above 0.53 percent that a certain fighter will win, I will bet this fighter using the closing line odds at pinnacle. With this method the model is profitable and successful, predicting over 72% of fights correctly. However, this betting strategy is of course ignoring the odds themselves, which is problematic to say the least. If a fighter is a heavy favorite with the odds implying a better chance of winning than my model predicts, I still bet that fighter, despite the EV being apparently negative.
When I tried modifying the strategy so that I bet only when my prediction is above the probability implied by the odds, or even using the Kelly criterion, the performance declines to the point where it is no longer profitable. In addition I noticed that If I place the bet early on using pinnacle, I usually bet at prices worse than the closing lines (the model does not BTCL), Implying that the market does not agree with my model usually.
So... I'm unsure how to go forward. Is it reasonable using this model for real money betting using the basic strategy? Does the BTCL issue mean that the model will ultimately fail in the long run? 1000 fights making a profit seem to provide at least some statistical significance...
I will appriciate your thoughts on this matter.. I am a programmer with experience in implementing machine learning tools, but I lack statistics knowledge and betting know-how.
Thanks in advance,
Joe