[rory borealis]

I looked for a formula in this thread before I asked you guys.

There is this guy/girl betting baseball for $100 per play

He/She has 64 winners and 53 losers and has won $1488

Question #1
What average odds is he/she currently betting at?

Question #2
64/117 =.547 is 54.7% winners at whatever average odds he/she is currently betting at

What would be the effective winning percentage over the same 117 plays if all his/her wagers were at the bookie's 11/10 (-110)?

[gentruchi]

Based on my few math knowledge, below my answers to your questions.

1 Question #1
What average odds is he/she currently betting at? Obviously he/she are playing dogs or +money. Otherwise at -110 they will only be making $570.
The average line they're playing to be up $1488 Is aprox. +106. That is 64x106=$6784(winnings) - 53x100=$5,300(lossings) total= 1484(I said aprox.)

Question #2
64/117 =.547 is 54.7% winners at whatever average odds he/she is currently betting at What would be the effective winning percentage over the same 117 plays if all his/her wagers were at the bookie's 11/10 (-110)?

Personally I won't try to mix the avg. for picking winners vs the effective winning pct. (specially in baseball) where what really matters is the units won. Let's say this is an analysis of football for example. If you want to take into account the juice on your winning/losing pct. then it will be as following:

64 W/53 L = 64 * 53 (1.1) = 64-58.3 | 64/122.3 = .523 (52.3%)

In other words at -110 the point to break even is 52.4%. this is the number you have to beat in order to make profit (at least at flat betting), that's 2.4% advantage for the books. So another way you can get to the number you were asking is to deduct 2.4% from your winning pct.

In this case 54.7% - 2.4% = (52.3%)

Hope it helps.

[rory borealis]

Thank you!

[Miz]

if the risk is $100 per play and the juice is about the same you can estimate it like this:

14.88 units = Wins-1.1*losses ... and
wins + losses = 117

14.88 = (wins)-(1.1)*(117-wins)...

14.88 = 2.1*wins - (1.1*117)

Wins = 68.3, losses=48.7... rounded W=68, L=49

So Units won on a pointspread sport at -110 ......

68 - (1.1*49) = 14.1 units

win pct = 68/117 = 58%

Very rough calculation. It is better to calculate vigless odds etc