OK based on these percentages from prior games I was wondering if my math is correct for finding the plus ev threshold on run line bets.
Percentage of games which producethe following Result . . . . . HOME FAVORITES ROAD FAVORITES----------------------------------- -------------- --------------Win by 2 Runs or More 39.1 % 43.6 %Win by Exactly 1 Run 18.4 % 11.6 %Lose by Exactly 1 Run 11.0 % 16.4 %Lose by 2 Runs or More 31.5 % 28.5 %
In my calculations
Home favs on the run line need to be priced at +156 or better for plus ev
road favs on the run line need to be priced at +130 or better for plus ev
road reverse run line dogs need to be priced at +219 or better for plus ev
home reverse run line dogs need to be priced at +251 or better for plus ev
Please let me know if i'm missing something here thanks in advance