[Hansi]

Hi there SBR,

My betting has been successfull for quite some time now, but i've always wondered if i i'm really approaching it correctly, and if there's something i could do better.

So far, i've recorded a 104% ROI on 1764 bets in a 5 month period. About 10 plays a day. Average odds 1.91-2.0

My method right now is the following

Say i have a roll of 10.000. I play 2-2,5% on each bet at even odds or lower. Higher than evens will be corrected to lower stakes. I do that until i reach a high/low win or loss goal. That could be 20% of my bankroll. At that point i will correct my percentages again.

So, technically i can lose 18% of my bankroll, but still place the next bets with the stakes that was set before the losing streak. This is obviously the approach i'm afraid of.

If i was placing 1 bet a day, i could obviously use the fractional kelly with ease, but when you sometimes hit 15 plays in a single day, the bankroll fluctuates so much in a 24 hour period. Sometimes you place three bets at the same time, while having 10 unsettled plays. Difficult to implement kelly.

You guys have any advice?

Thanks a lot

[gui_m_p]

Hi there SBR,

My betting has been successfull for quite some time now, but i've always wondered if i i'm really approaching it correctly, and if there's something i could do better.

So far, i've recorded a 104% ROI on 1764 bets in a 5 month period. About 10 plays a day. Average odds 1.91-2.0

My method right now is the following

Say i have a roll of 10.000. I play 2-2,5% on each bet at even odds or lower. Higher than evens will be corrected to lower stakes. I do that until i reach a high/low win or loss goal. That could be 20% of my bankroll. At that point i will correct my percentages again.

So, technically i can lose 18% of my bankroll, but still place the next bets with the stakes that was set before the losing streak. This is obviously the approach i'm afraid of.

If i was placing 1 bet a day, i could obviously use the fractional kelly with ease, but when you sometimes hit 15 plays in a single day, the bankroll fluctuates so much in a 24 hour period. Sometimes you place three bets at the same time, while having 10 unsettled plays. Difficult to implement kelly.

You guys have any advice?

Thanks a lot

Your money management is fine. If your taking +EV bets the majority of time, chances to broke are low. I do something quite similar.

Regarding using Kelly when you have many bets on a single day, I consider only the bankroll that I had when the day started. Just the next day, when all bets are settled, I see how my baknroll increased/decreased and adjust my stake. But obviously, if you do this, you will eventually lose more when a bad streak of 8-10 losses is concentrated on a single day.

[Hansi]

Your money management is fine. If your taking +EV bets the majority of time, chances to broke are low. I do something quite similar.

Regarding using Kelly when you have many bets on a single day, I consider only the bankroll that I had when the day started. Just the next day, when all bets are settled, I see how my baknroll increased/decreased and adjust my stake. But obviously, if you do this, you will eventually lose more when a bad streak of 8-10 losses is concentrated on a single day.

Thanks for the reply.

What do you think about the percentages i'm using, and capping the max stake at even odds and lower? I used to go by "target profit", meaning that i was looking to make the 2% in profit on each bet. So a 1,5 price would be double stake, and eventually a 4% play.

I went away from this due to the negative variance. Especially when i went with those 1,3 prices.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

If i was placing 1 bet a day, i could obviously use the fractional kelly with ease, but when you sometimes hit 15 plays in a single day, the bankroll fluctuates so much in a 24 hour period. Sometimes you place three bets at the same time, while having 10 unsettled plays. Difficult to implement kelly.

The Kelly optimal stake with multiple bets is actually a reduced stake on each. It's not worth bothering about for most players, but 15 plays at once is a lot, so it's quite important for you.

See the calc:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

Try feeding it 1 bet, then 15 simultaneous. It's going to more than half the stake compared to a single bet.

[Hansi]

The Kelly optimal stake with multiple bets is actually a reduced stake on each. It's not worth bothering about for most players, but 15 plays at once is a lot, so it's quite important for you.

See the calc:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

Try feeding it 1 bet, then 15 simultaneous. It's going to more than half the stake compared to a single bet.

Thanks,

The 15 bets are not exactly at the same time, but troughout the day. And some of them for the next couple of days possibly.

Also, most of my bets are picked from other experts, so it's a bit risky to throw in a probability on my own, which in theory could be 2-3% off.

HeeHAWWW, what's your opinion on the method i'm using?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Hrrrm, another way then is to look at your actual RoI, and use that to derive an average stake size. If you're producing 4% RoI, then stakes of 2.1% roughly equate to half-Kelly. That's quite aggressive already, and then when you add on a fairly hefty dose of simultaneous betting........

I'd assume something like ten simultaneous, maybe go for a Kelly multiplier of 0.33x - that gives you 1.25%.

[gui_m_p]

What do you think about the percentages i'm using, and capping the max stake at even odds and lower?

HeeeHAWWW math is woth noting. I think you shouldn't bet beyond 2% of your bankroll. If your bets are actually +ev, it will almost eraze chances to go broke.

[inrenokid]

It maybe, that, the decision making involved in deciding which of a multiple of choices which will go off at the same time period is how you can tell if you have an edge. The multi bets is for coverage and risk were you dont know ...

[suzie]

1 question who da fook is Kelly ?

[gui_m_p]

1 question who da fook is Kelly ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Larry_Kelly,_Jr.

[747planes]

Hi there SBR,

My betting has been successfull for quite some time now, but i've always wondered if i i'm really approaching it correctly, and if there's something i could do better.

So far, i've recorded a 104% ROI on 1764 bets in a 5 month period. About 10 plays a day. Average odds 1.91-2.0

My method right now is the following

Say i have a roll of 10.000. I play 2-2,5% on each bet at even odds or lower. Higher than evens will be corrected to lower stakes. I do that until i reach a high/low win or loss goal. That could be 20% of my bankroll. At that point i will correct my percentages again.

So, technically i can lose 18% of my bankroll, but still place the next bets with the stakes that was set before the losing streak. This is obviously the approach i'm afraid of.

If i was placing 1 bet a day, i could obviously use the fractional kelly with ease, but when you sometimes hit 15 plays in a single day, the bankroll fluctuates so much in a 24 hour period. Sometimes you place three bets at the same time, while having 10 unsettled plays. Difficult to implement kelly.

You guys have any advice?

Thanks a lot

Kelly is very overrated. For your type of bankroll and betting bettingresource money management is the best.

[lamichaeljames]

Thanks for the reply.

What do you think about the percentages i'm using, and capping the max stake at even odds and lower? I used to go by "target profit", meaning that i was looking to make the 2% in profit on each bet. So a 1,5 price would be double stake, and eventually a 4% play.

I went away from this due to the negative variance. Especially when i went with those 1,3 prices.

What did you end up doing?