1. #36
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raizen View Post
    Sorry hutennis but my english is really poor and keep a conversation with technicals terms is an extra effort for me so I will leave here the conversation.
    I don't remember using much, if any, technical terms. Just some common knowledge and common sense.
    And I would not worry about you English at all. It is just fine. Not worse than mine, that's for sure.
    Although in your respond to me you did choose to pay noticeably less attention to it than in your respond to Sawer in post #32 for example.

    Just one point, I'm living of this (following tipsters) since 4 years and know a lot of people also and we use this methods I've described. Here in europe is really common. It's curious how in US is really difference.

    I disagree with you but anyway thank you for your correct debate. Good luck in future
    I don't think laws of probability work in Europe any differently than in US, just as gravity works the same everywhere.
    I'm also sure that people in Europe are as prone to falling for all kinds of fallacies, self delusions and erroneous beliefs as Americans or Australians.

    I wonder if it is the case with your claim of such a great success with tailing tipsters.
    Of course, like with any unsubstantiated claim, yours can not be and should not be taking seriously.
    It is what it is - empty, irrelevant claim.

    But, regardless, agree to disagree is always fine, of course.

  2. #37
    Raizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    I don't remember using much, if any, technical terms. Just some common knowledge and common sense.
    And I would not worry about you English at all. It is just fine. Not worse than mine, that's for sure.
    Although in your respond to me you did choose to pay noticeably less attention to it than in your respond to Sawer in post #32 for example.



    I don't think laws of probability work in Europe any differently than in US, just as gravity works the same everywhere.
    I'm also sure that people in Europe are as prone to falling for all kinds of fallacies, self delusions and erroneous beliefs as Americans or Australians.

    I wonder if it is the case with your claim of such a great success with tailing tipsters.
    Of course, like with any unsubstantiated claim, yours can not be and should not be taking seriously.
    It is what it is - empty, irrelevant claim.

    But, regardless, agree to disagree is always fine, of course.
    You talk like I've invented the wheel, and it's something that make almost everybody which are involved in betting online.

    Oh no, sorry. I forgot that in US you don't know how.

  3. #38
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raizen View Post
    You talk like I've invented the wheel, and it's something that make almost everybody which are involved in betting online.

    Oh no, sorry. I forgot that in US you don't know how.
    OK. This is your claim.

    So I have a 10-15% interest rate on the long run and can invest what I want, doesn't matter if a tispter bet 1 or 1 million units per pick.
    If this is true, you are one of the best investors in a world ever. Plain and simple.
    Why? Because when risk free investments are paying close to 0%, making 10% - 15% interest rate on the long run
    is outrageously and unbelievably good. Best money managers in the world can not come anywhere near this record.

    This claim is so extraordinary, that without extraordinary proof it is simply laughable.
    Unless you intent to provide hard evidence to prove claims like this, please, don't make them, or you'll become a laughingstock.
    And deservingly so.

    There is another possibility though.

    You are confused, delusional and biased.
    Unlike being one of the best investors in a world, this is very common for people.
    Both in Europe and in America.

    So we have two choices:

    1. You are one of the best investors in a world ever.
    2. You are confused, delusional and biased.

    Which one do you think is more likely (requires less assumptions)?

  4. #39
    Raizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    OK. This is your claim.



    If this is true, you are one of the best investors in a world ever. Plain and simple.
    Why? Because when risk free investments are paying close to 0%, making 10% - 15% interest rate on the long run
    is outrageously and unbelievably good. Best money managers in the world can not come anywhere near this record.

    This claim is so extraordinary, that without extraordinary proof it is simply laughable.
    Unless you intent to provide hard evidence to prove claims like this, please, don't make them, or you'll become a laughingstock.
    And deservingly so.

    There is another possibility though.

    You are confused, delusional and biased.
    Unlike being one of the best investors in a world, this is very common for people.
    Both in Europe and in America.

    So we have two choices:

    1. You are one of the best investors in a world ever.
    2. You are confused, delusional and biased.

    Which one do you think is more likely (requires less assumptions)?
    Well, if you say no, it's no.

    But don't worry, it's normal; with all this handicappers showing only the win rate and units is hard to make a good portfolio of them. They are not very serious, I think we can say it's close to scam.

    Try looking for some non-US betting sites that shows yield and verified picks. If don't know any, pm me. I don't know if I can mention them here.

  5. #40
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raizen View Post
    Well, if you say no, it's no.

    But don't worry, it's normal; with all this handicappers showing only the win rate and units is hard to make a good portfolio of them. They are not very serious, I think we can say it's close to scam.

    Try looking for some non-US betting sites that shows yield and verified picks. If don't know any, pm me. I don't know if I can mention them here.
    Sure, you can.

    That's we are all here for. To make a lot of money fast and easy.
    Let's look at your sure way a bit closer.

  6. #41
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    OK. This is your claim.



    If this is true, you are one of the best investors in a world ever. Plain and simple.
    Why? Because when risk free investments are paying close to 0%, making 10% - 15% interest rate on the long run
    is outrageously and unbelievably good. Best money managers in the world can not come anywhere near this record.

    This claim is so extraordinary, that without extraordinary proof it is simply laughable.
    Unless you intent to provide hard evidence to prove claims like this, please, don't make them, or you'll become a laughingstock.
    And deservingly so.

    There is another possibility though.

    You are confused, delusional and biased.
    Unlike being one of the best investors in a world, this is very common for people.
    Both in Europe and in America.

    So we have two choices:

    1. You are one of the best investors in a world ever.
    2. You are confused, delusional and biased.

    Which one do you think is more likely (requires less assumptions)?

    Actuallly, I think that a yearly 10-15% interest rate is way too low for a full-time bettor. Provided of course that he makes a reasonable amount of bets (turnover), has a solid edge (yield) and a sensible staking plan.

    That said, there will come a time when this rate will no longer be possible, simply because your bankroll will have grown to the point that there will be not enough liquidity for your bets, or at least for a portion of your bets. And although your yield remains the same, your bank does not grow with the same rate because you cannot have the turnover that your bank size and staking plan dictates.

    It is true that the best money managers in the world do not make 15%, but they do not manage 100K bankrolls. If you manage millions or billions, the sportsbetting markets are just too small to make any difference in the bottom line, it's like putting your money to sleep. So when your bankroll grows beyond a certain point, you need to consider other alternatives. Even a much smaller yield in a very liquid market could mean bigger bank growth rate, than a high yield in low liquidity markets.

    The point remains that the size of your bank plays an important role on what rate is achievable. It's easy to have a 15% annual return on a 100K bankroll, much harder for a 1 million bankroll.

  7. #42
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raizen View Post
    Well, if you say no, it's no.

    But don't worry, it's normal; with all this handicappers showing only the win rate and units is hard to make a good portfolio of them. They are not very serious, I think we can say it's close to scam.

    Try looking for some non-US betting sites that shows yield and verified picks. If don't know any, pm me. I don't know if I can mention them here.

    Raizen, can you PM or post any of the sites you are referring to?
    I am also following over the years some worthy services, but I would like to further increase my turnover

  8. #43
    Raizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttango9001 View Post
    Actuallly, I think that a yearly 10-15% interest rate is way too low for a full-time bettor. Provided of course that he makes a reasonable amount of bets (turnover), has a solid edge (yield) and a sensible staking plan.

    That said, there will come a time when this rate will no longer be possible, simply because your bankroll will have grown to the point that there will be not enough liquidity for your bets, or at least for a portion of your bets. And although your yield remains the same, your bank does not grow with the same rate because you cannot have the turnover that your bank size and staking plan dictates.

    It is true that the best money managers in the world do not make 15%, but they do not manage 100K bankrolls. If you manage millions or billions, the sportsbetting markets are just too small to make any difference in the bottom line, it's like putting your money to sleep. So when your bankroll grows beyond a certain point, you need to consider other alternatives. Even a much smaller yield in a very liquid market could mean bigger bank growth rate, than a high yield in low liquidity markets.

    The point remains that the size of your bank plays an important role on what rate is achievable. It's easy to have a 15% annual return on a 100K bankroll, much harder for a 1 million bankroll.
    Finally someone with common sense... You're right 10-15% ins't too much for full time bettor, but here people seems it imposible. Even if you look for some horse betting you can find tipsters with 30% in the long run (4000+ picks and more than 10 years). But people here seems it like thing of God and miracles. I don't want to know what is the interest rate they are used to achieve, course, they even don't know it...

    The webs aren't nothing special, everybody knows them. BA, blogabet, etc... any betting portal, there are lots in the net... you just have to find between all the mediocrity the good ones. And off course private services, like horse tipster I mentioned above.

  9. #44
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttango9001 View Post
    Actuallly, I think that a yearly 10-15% interest rate is way too low for a full-time bettor. Provided of course that he makes a reasonable amount of bets (turnover), has a solid edge (yield) and a sensible staking plan.

    That said, there will come a time when this rate will no longer be possible, simply because your bankroll will have grown to the point that there will be not enough liquidity for your bets, or at least for a portion of your bets. And although your yield remains the same, your bank does not grow with the same rate because you cannot have the turnover that your bank size and staking plan dictates.

    It is true that the best money managers in the world do not make 15%, but they do not manage 100K bankrolls. If you manage millions or billions, the sportsbetting markets are just too small to make any difference in the bottom line, it's like putting your money to sleep. So when your bankroll grows beyond a certain point, you need to consider other alternatives. Even a much smaller yield in a very liquid market could mean bigger bank growth rate, than a high yield in low liquidity markets.

    The point remains that the size of your bank plays an important role on what rate is achievable. It's easy to have a 15% annual return on a 100K bankroll, much harder for a 1 million bankroll.
    yeah.
    Please, check your sources.

    SB volume is huge.
    Any half way decent tennis or soccer match on an exchenge will swallow 100k before you even have a time say "holy shit! What just happened to me?"

    It is easy to make 15% return but Market is too small for your cool mil?
    What are you talking about?
    you guys are living in some kind of low information bubble or something.
    Or you just a bunch of naive kids.

    Anyway, anyone who uses words "15% return" and "easy" in one sentence
    has a very little clue on how the world works. That's for sure.

  10. #45
    hutennis
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    15% return a year will double you roll in 5 years, meaning that 500k investment will provide you 100k annual income for life and your size is never larger than 1 mil.
    And it is easy. Really?

    What planet are you from?
    or rather, how old are you?

  11. #46
    Raizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    yeah.
    Please, check your sources.

    SB volume is huge.
    Any half way decent tennis or soccer match on an exchenge will swallow 100k before you even have a time say "holy shit! What just happened to me?"

    It is easy to make 15% return but Market is too small for your cool mil?
    What are you talking about?
    you guys are living in some kind of low information bubble or something.
    Or you just a bunch of naive kids.

    Anyway, anyone who uses words "15% return" and "easy" in one sentence
    has a very little clue on how the world works. That's for sure.
    WTF? Don't know that some bookies will limit you? When your bankroll grow up you can't continue using the same bookies, just can use betfair, asian and some american bookies. You have to leave some markets and the rest of bookies. That's what ttango9001 was saying.

    And I insist, 15% return is not "easy" in big markets, but neither is from another world as you think. Some tipsters even have more than this. Take a look at Benny1887 on blogabet, he only bet on asian bookies wich have huge limits per bet. He have a 10% return, and there are even with 30%, is just an example.
    Last edited by Raizen; 12-11-12 at 06:50 AM.

  12. #47
    skrtelfan
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    that benny guy only has 500 picks and the site says that about 8% of his quoted odds aren't verified, so if he's sneaking in a few fake lines that could greatly change things. on a site like that with thousands and thousands of posters, someone will get lucky over 500 picks by sheer luck.

  13. #48
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
    that benny guy only has 500 picks and the site says that about 8% of his quoted odds aren't verified, so if he's sneaking in a few fake lines that could greatly change things. on a site like that with thousands and thousands of posters, someone will get lucky over 500 picks by sheer luck.
    that's what I was saying

  14. #49
    Raizen
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    Ok so what you think would be a number of picks to be really confident? 10.000?

  15. #50
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    yeah.
    Please, check your sources.

    SB volume is huge.
    Any half way decent tennis or soccer match on an exchenge will swallow 100k before you even have a time say "holy shit! What just happened to me?"

    It is easy to make 15% return but Market is too small for your cool mil?
    What are you talking about?
    you guys are living in some kind of low information bubble or something.
    Or you just a bunch of naive kids.

    Anyway, anyone who uses words "15% return" and "easy" in one sentence
    has a very little clue on how the world works. That's for sure.

    Taking words out of context, doesn't help proving your point. But then again, what do I know, obviously your knowledge on how the world works far exceeds mine, so I will just take your word for it.

  16. #51
    Raizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
    that benny guy only has 500 picks and the site says that about 8% of his quoted odds aren't verified, so if he's sneaking in a few fake lines that could greatly change things. on a site like that with thousands and thousands of posters, someone will get lucky over 500 picks by sheer luck.
    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    that's what I was saying
    Ok I definitly leave this. I'm tired of discussing a strategy that isn't nothing speciall like here we all were noobs and now were discovered what is follow tipsters. I'm tired of questions so newb that seems you're trolling. I absolutly don't care if you belive it or not, the best for everybody is that each one do the best they can and leave.

    Regards and good luck.

  17. #52
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    15% return a year will double you roll in 5 years, meaning that 500k investment will provide you 100k annual income for life and your size is never larger than 1 mil.
    And it is easy. Really?

    What planet are you from?
    or rather, how old are you?
    A 15% return on a 500k fund means a profit of 75k, not 100. At least, that's how it is in the planet i am from.

  18. #53
    allin1
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    Raizen if you are making money with tipsters good for you, but I still think it's more randomness.

    Most believe that anyone with the ability to make consistent money from sports betting is not going to become a tipster. Why would he?

  19. #54
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttango9001 View Post
    A 15% return on a 500k fund means a profit of 75k, not 100. At least, that's how it is in the planet i am from.
    500k at 15%/year will turn into just over a 1mil. in 5 years.
    Then you take out 500k out to live on it for the next 5 years (100k per year) till your remaining 500k will grow to a million again. Then you will rinse and repeat for the rest of your life.

    That's what 15% yearly return will do for you on a easy to manage 500k.

    And it is easy to do too.
    Actually, you don't have to do much at all, as I understand it.
    Some great guy, good samaritan tipster will do it for you.

    What a great planet you are living at!

    P.S.
    I would strongly suggest for you guys to familiarize yourself with what
    in psychology known as DunningKruger effect

    It states:
    "The least competent you are the least you are aware of it"

    Charles Darwin said it best though:
    “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

  20. #55
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Raizen if you are making money with tipsters good for you, but I still think it's more randomness.

    Most believe that anyone with the ability to make consistent money from sports betting is not going to become a tipster. Why would he?

    Suppose somebody is an expert in a certain sport or league and has a long term yield of 5-6% in highly liquid mature markets, with an average number of around 200 picks yearly. With such a low turnover, and assuming he is flat betting 1% of his bankroll in each bet he would have a return on capital of around 13% yearly. Now, if his bankroll is not big enough, this interest rate although impressive by most standards, is simply not enough to cover living expenses. In this case, generating an extra source of income by selling his picks is a very sensible strategy. Considering that we are talking about highly liquid markets where his clients money are not likely to have any real impact on his profits (afterall he can still bet his picks before he sends them out), this would also make sense even if he had a much bigger bankroll. In effect, it's very similar to managing other people's money and charging a comission for the service.

    Of course, 99.9% of all the "tipster" sites out there are complete garbage, but this doesn't mean that there are no legitimate services that perform consistently good over the years.

  21. #56
    ttango9001
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    Quote Originally Posted by hutennis View Post
    500k at 15%/year will turn into just over a 1mil. in 5 years.
    Then you take out 500k out to live on it for the next 5 years (100k per year) till your remaining 500k will grow to a million again. Then you will rinse and repeat for the rest of your life.

    That's what 15% yearly return will do for you on a easy to manage 500k.

    And it is easy to do too.
    Actually, you don't have to do much at all, as I understand it.
    Some great guy, good samaritan tipster will do it for you.

    What a great planet you are living at!

    P.S.
    I would strongly suggest for you guys to familiarize yourself with what
    in psychology known as DunningKruger effect

    It states:
    "The least competent you are the least you are aware of it"

    Charles Darwin said it best though:
    “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.”

    Thanks again for pointing that out. Turns out that after all these years betting, i was just lucky.

  22. #57
    Inspirited
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    one guy you want to follow is yisman

  23. #58
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttango9001 View Post
    Turns out that after all these years betting, i was just lucky.
    This is one of the most popular one liners on betting forums.

    Interestingly enough, it should always be a default assumption b/c in almost every case it will be a correct one.

  24. #59
    hutennis
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    Quote Originally Posted by ttango9001 View Post
    Suppose somebody is an expert in a certain sport or league and has a long term yield of 5-6% in highly liquid mature markets, with an average number of around 200 picks yearly. With such a low turnover, and assuming he is flat betting 1% of his bankroll in each bet he would have a return on capital of around 13% yearly. Now, if his bankroll is not big enough, this interest rate although impressive by most standards, is simply not enough to cover living expenses. In this case, generating an extra source of income by selling his picks is a very sensible strategy. Considering that we are talking about highly liquid markets where his clients money are not likely to have any real impact on his profits (afterall he can still bet his picks before he sends them out), this would also make sense even if he had a much bigger bankroll. In effect, it's very similar to managing other people's money and charging a comission for the service.

    Of course, 99.9% of all the "tipster" sites out there are complete garbage, but this doesn't mean that there are no legitimate services that perform consistently good over the years.
    If he is that good and his record can withstand serious scientific scrutiny, he would not have any problem finding very wealthy backers.
    This is much easier and much more profitable than chasing few bucks a pop subscribers on an internet.
    And that's how it's done in a real world.

    But if his record simply can not be taking seriously by smart money, b/c smart money do know better, then fooling ignorant but arrogant and overconfident fish swimming around pick's sites is his only choice.

    Nothing new about that. Just another con.

  25. #60
    skrtelfan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raizen View Post
    Ok so what you think would be a number of picks to be really confident? 10.000?
    With unverified lines, the number is infinite.

  26. #61
    1brokegirl
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    K I S S i always say who da fook cares about yield or ROI when betting on sports if i bet 100 games and win 80 of them i'm happiiest beeech in town if i win 55 and lose 45 i'm not as happy but feel good any way

    if i only win 40 n lose 60 bend me over and hammer me because then i'd feel better L*

  27. #62
    GoldGlove
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    None. Most preferred stat is Total Units Won. You don't pay the bills with your yield stat. A bettor with %4 yield may make profit then a bettor with %12 yield..Total Units Won; your total profit matters most.
    This is so wrong.

    One capper could play 3 or 4 units per each game, and another one could play 1 unit per each game. It depends on the unit size. Those 3 or 4 units could be equal to only ONE unit from a different capper. Unit size MATTERS, not total units won. 5 units won with $500 = 1 unit is much better than 30 units won with $50 = 1u. It's as simple as that.

    If your unit is $500 and you tail a capper and that dude tells you to play his 10 unit Gold Nugget of the Month, are you REALLY going to play $5000 on that one? I seriously doubt it. You adjust your unit according to the style of that capper.

  28. #63
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoldGlove View Post
    This is so wrong.

    One capper could play 3 or 4 units per each game, and another one could play 1 unit per each game. It depends on the unit size. Those 3 or 4 units could be equal to only ONE unit from a different capper. Unit size MATTERS, not total units won. 5 units won with $500 = 1 unit is much better than 30 units won with $50 = 1u. It's as simple as that.

    If your unit is $500 and you tail a capper and that dude tells you to play his 10 unit Gold Nugget of the Month, are you REALLY going to play $5000 on that one? I seriously doubt it. You adjust your unit according to the style of that capper.
    You're really funny. You really think we can compare a person who bets 1 unit/game and 20 units on a single game? They're totally different. What I said is based on an universal stake scale comparison. (Like betting 1 unit each game or using 1/10-10/10 sick-stupid-stake system)

    Of course Unit size matters, no need to be a rocket scientist to understand it..except you I guess hehe.

  29. #64
    Sawyer
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    In my previous posts, I said Total Units won (depends on Unit Size of course) is important etc but there's something even more important than this:



    REAL MONEY: CASH!

    The money in your bank account. The money in your pocket.

    Do you really think you're a good tipster if you have %20 yield, %70 win rate but only 100$ in your pocket? What if you're betting only 20$ a game?

    Guys, betting is easy when you're betting peanuts. Betting 50-100$ is easy. Money management is not so much challenge when your bankroll is small, like 1000-2000$. The real challenge is managing large bankrolls, above 50k.

    You may spot a great tipster, with an excellent record, stats etc but do you know how seriously he is? How much he is betting each game? One tipster makes 25,000$/month while other one makes only 1500$. People are emotional beings not machines. He may had a fight with his wife that day, his cat may be missing, anything can happen. How serious your tipster is? Something to consider..

    Sometimes, in some betting forums I see people who try to teach money management with peanuts, 200-300 bankroll. Let's say this guy increased his bank by x5 in 2 months. He thinks he would increase his bank x5 if he had 20,000 bankroll too. LMAO. Making money managament with a small bankroll is like making shooting practic with a goalpost with no goalkeeper.

    Stats, Numbers, Records, Yield, ROI etc..At the end of day, your success is based on your lifestyle, how much money you're doing at this business. You may have a better yield, win rate, total units won then another tipster but at the end of the month, how much profit you have? You're just making 1500$ while he is making 17,000€. Do you really think you're a better bettor then him? Please be realistic. The real money, CASH is the best indicator of your succses.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 01-14-13 at 10:35 AM.

  30. #65
    EXhoosier10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
    In my previous posts, I said Total Units won (depends on Unit Size of course) is important etc but there's something even more important than this:

    REAL MONEY: CASH!

    The money in your bank account. The money in your pocket.

    Do you really think you're a good tipster if you have %20 yield, %70 win rate but only 100$ in your pocket? What if you're betting only 20$ a game?

    Guys, betting is easy when you're betting peanuts. Betting 50-100$ is easy. Money management is not so much challenge when your bankroll is small, like 1000-2000$. The real challenge is managing large bankrolls, above 50k.

    You may spot a great tipster, with an excellent record, stats etc but do you know how seriously he is? How much he is betting each game? One tipster makes 25,000$/month while other one makes only 1500$. People are emotional beings not machines. He may had a fight with his wife that day, his cat may be missing, anything can happen. How serious your tipster is? Something to consider..

    Sometimes, in some betting forums I see people who try to teach money management with peanuts, 200-300 bankroll. Let's say this guy increased his bank by x5 in 2 months. He thinks he would increase his bank x5 if he had 20,000 bankroll too. LMAO. Making money managament with a small bankroll is like making shooting practic with a goalpost with no goalkeeper.

    Stats, Numbers, Records, Yield, ROI etc..At the end of day, your success is based on your lifestyle, how much money you're doing at this business. You may have a better yield, win rate, total units won then another tipster but at the end of the month, how much profit you have? You're just making 1500$ while he is making 17,000€. Do you really think you're a better bettor then him? Please be realistic. The real money, CASH is the best indicator of your succses.
    I have to disagree with you here, sawyer. While $$ are really what counts, you don't need to be rich to be a good 'capper. A 51% capper with 10k units isn't any better than a 54% bettor with $10 units, all else being equal.

    That being said, the reason I like units is because it takes dollar value away from your bets. Your idea that managing 100k is harder than managing 1k is true in some sense, but if both bettors see value in a play and want to place 2u on it, whether it be $2k or $20, it's 2u and 2% to both br's.

  31. #66
    Sawyer
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    In order to be rich, wait a second..I don't like the word of "rich" really; let's say succesful instead. When I said rich, I feel myself like Uncle Scrooge, lol.

    In order to be succesful/make a fortune by betting on sports, you have to be a..

    Genious, Smart, Hard Working, Patient, Disciplined, Cold-Blooded handicapper with balls of steel, A River-Boat Gambler, Cunning like a fox.

    Btw, based on -110 odds, A 51% capper with 10k units is worse then a 54% bettor with $10 units.
    Last edited by Sawyer; 01-14-13 at 11:03 AM.

  32. #67
    Teamprofit101
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    Sawyer,

    I have a proposition for you, hit me up

  33. #68
    bimmer2
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    I think both of you are right and wrong, in your discussion about yield vs units. I believe it is a question about preference towards risk.

    High yield with low amounts of picks = high risk
    Low yield with high amounts of picks = low risk

    James %5 yield, makes +4 unit/month.
    Lars %20 yield, makes +2 unit/month.
    Jason %30 yield, makes +1 unit/month.
    Kirk %4 yield, makes +6 unit/month.
    Dave %3 yield, makes +10 unit/month.

    The yield guy (YG) would choose Jason, as he seeks the highest yield possible.

    The unit guy (UG) would choose Dave, as he seeks the highest unit/month possible.

    Both selections might be the best opportunity for each person, as it is a question about their preference towards risk, and they need to choose the option that maximizes their utility.

    Jason might provide 10 picks a month, whereas Dave might provide 100 picks.
    Because YG will get less picks a month, he will use larger unit sizes compared to UG.
    UG might bet $100 each pick, and will therefore bet a total of $10,000 a month. YG will instead bet $1,000 each pick, to compensate for the less amount of picks available each month, and will therefore bet a total of $10,000 a month.

    This will result in UG (+10 unit/month) netting a total of $1,000 each month. And YG (+1 unit/month) netting a total of $1,000 each month.

    Result:
    Each investor will risk the same amount of money each month and they will earn the same amount. However, by choosing tipster Dave, you diversify your risk, and you will not have large fluctuations in your bankroll. But by choosing Jason, you have the chance of “hitting a big win”, if he hits a win-streak (high risk, high reward).
    In the case of Jason vs Dave the expected return is equal, and it is a question about the investors preference towards risk.
    Risk lover vs risk aversion
    Last edited by bimmer2; 01-23-14 at 03:32 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    nash13 gave bimmer2 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  34. #69
    nouma06
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    Quote Originally Posted by bimmer2 View Post
    I think both of you are right and wrong, in your discussion about yield vs units. I believe it is a question about preference towards risk.

    High yield with low amounts of picks = high risk
    Low yield with high amounts of picks = low risk

    James %5 yield, makes +4 unit/month.
    Lars %20 yield, makes +2 unit/month.
    Jason %30 yield, makes +1 unit/month.
    Kirk %4 yield, makes +6 unit/month.
    Dave %3 yield, makes +10 unit/month.

    The yield guy (YG) would choose Jason, as he seeks the highest yield possible.

    The unit guy (UG) would choose Dave, as he seeks the highest unit/month possible.

    Both selections might be the best opportunity for each person, as it is a question about their preference towards risk, and they need to choose the option that maximizes their utility.
    Very good explanation. In the final analysis yield=units/TotalAmountWagered. So these are not totally independent indicators.

    I'd like to add 2 points:
    -Units shows me how good handicapper a person is.
    -Yield on the other hand, how well this handicapper is managing his bankroll.

    Personally I would prefer a handicapper with Low-Roi/High-Volume (Dave in your example) to another with High-Roi/Low-Volume (Jason).. Why? Because the standard deviation of final bankroll would be smaller for the first case.

  35. #70
    bihon
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1brokegirl View Post
    K I S S i always say who da fook cares about yield or ROI when betting on sports if i bet 100 games and win 80 of them i'm happiiest beeech in town if i win 55 and lose 45 i'm not as happy but feel good any way
    if i only win 40 n lose 60 bend me over and hammer me because then i'd feel better L*
    Dear kiss girl, if you win 80 games out of of 100 with odds 1.01 (-10000 US) then you'll have to bend very often to stay happy.

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