Looking for some help. My local allows me to sell points on games. On average, selling 2 points nets me a swing from -110 to +125. I am trying to figure out the equation for how many games would need to swing from a win to a loss because I sold those points but break even. I.e. What's my break even? I tried it on 50 wins and 50 losses. If one of every 6 games loses because of you selling points (game covers at +6, loses at +4) you lose 0.5 units on every 50 wins (assumes 50 wins, 50 losses, save you 5 units on the losses as you are laying 1 not 1.1, but lose 5.5 because of the 6 losses per 50)
I ran it out to 100/100 and ran it at 1 loss per 6 and1 loss per 7. At 1 per 7 your better off selling the points so I think the number is between 6 and 7 but trying to figure out the equation for break even. Anyone able to help??
For now, disregard all other factors about selling points, the crossing 0, crossing key numbers etc. I'm just trying to figure out the starting break even number.
If I didn't explain clearly or questions let me know but thanks for any help!!
So your current breakeven for 100 games is 52.38 or so at -110. At 125, it is ~44.44. So if moving the two points losses you less than 7.94 games, then sell the points.
Depending on what sport, you are not getting a good deal though. A 2 point move from 6 to 4 in the NBA would go from -110 to 130 in the odds calculator in the tools section. If he lets you sell the points on totals, sell the points on totals.
Working in decimal odds will be easier to calculate this
+125 is 2.25, so take that and divide by 1
1/2.25 = 44.4% - meaning you need to hit at least 44.4% at +125 (2.25) odds to break even
If you can sell points on totals you stand a better chance as its worth less than points on spreads. So take the odds your local offers and compare that to sharp books like Pinny and 5dimes, if you are getting better odds than that you have a chance to beat your local.
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