I usually bet on NFL parlays, anywhere from 3 to 5 games.
My strategy has always been to pick games where my spread is furthest away from Vegas spread which I consider to be correct spread. I know this helps my edge but by how much?
Let's use a 3 team parlay as an example:
I pick MIAMI +3.5 when Vegas +2.5
I pick INDY +8.5 when Vegas +6.5
And finally, I pick PHILLY +5.5 when Vegas +4
(My 3 team parlay odds are x7, or 12.5% house advantage or "per game odds" of 1.91)
I am guessing I will beat house edge with these picks... But by how much?? How do I calculate? Is there a way?
Thank you so much. Gearing up for next NFL season lol.