[Willie Bee]

Indiana Hoosiers +8 at home vs. Michigan State

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Indiana is a dangerous home dog getting more than a touchdown, as their offensive and defensive numbers are very comparable to the Spartans. Take the points.

The Indiana Hoosiers and Michigan State Spartans are very similar in that both teams have run oriented offenses and both defend the run well, so in what figures to be a tight battle, it seems prudent to grab more than a touchdown with the home team here.

In fact, the home underdogs are actually averaging more points and yards offensively and allowing fewer yards per game defensively, meaning that this line may be based more on reputation than on the performances of these teams on the field this season.

Indiana is averaging 32.0 points and 446.7 total yards per game while going 2-1 so far, with a whopping 271.3 of those yards coming on the ground. The Hoosiers are averaging an impressive 5.7 yards per rush, and quarterback Kellen Lewis has made up for his passing deficiencies by leading the team with 331 rushing years on a terrific 9.5 yards per carry. The Indiana defense has done its part by allowing just 19.3 points and 298.0 total yards per game, limiting opposing rushers to 3.1 yards per carry.

Now the Spartans are off to a 3-1 start, and they are averaging 28.2 points on 376.0 yards per game. While those numbers look impressive, they are actually not as good as Indiana and the yardage numbers are padded somewhat by a dominating performance on the ground vs. a bad Notre Dame team last week. Their defense has been solid, allowing only 13 points per game, but they are allowing an average of 324.2 totals yards and 3.8 yards per rush, more than half a yard higher that the Hoosiers run defense allows per carry.

Add this all up and we see a field goal type contest either way, so we feel Indiana offers lots of value at this price at home.

Free Pick: Indiana +8 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Oklahoma St. Cowboys -16½ get revenge vs. Troy Trojans

Game Time: 09/27/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | experts.covers.com

Troy embarrassed Oklahoma State a year ago in a 41-23 rout for the Trojans. Look for the Cowboys to exact a little revenge at home in Stillwater on Saturday night.

Troy completely embarrassed the Cowboys last season as they never saw the Trojans coming. Oklahoma St. lost that game by 18 points and the final score did not even tell the story as Troy had a 31-point lead entering the fourth quarter.

The Trojans piled up 562 total yards in that game but it is important to note that the two best offensive players, quarterback Omar Haugabook and running back Kenny Cattouse have moved on. The Trojans offense is not nearly the same as last season.

The Cowboys meanwhile come into this year a perfect 3-0 and the offense may be even better than last season. Oklahoma St. finished last season seventh in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense. This year, the Cowboys are currently fifth in both total offense and scoring offense and they have improved their margins each game. Granted the last game came against Missouri St. but in the game prior to that, they racked up 699 yards of offense against Houston. They are rolling right now.

The cog to this offense is quarterback Zac Robinson as he is currently eighth in the country in passing efficiency. His first start as a Cowboy came last season in Troy and it was a game that he would like to forget as he was 18-37 for 191 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. He no doubt remembers that game and would like nothing more than to turn it around here against the same team. Troy has been solid on defense but most of that success came against Alcorn St. in a 65-0 win.

Most of the offensive success came in that game as well as the Trojans put up 736 total yards of offense in that game. In the other two games against Middle Tennessee and Ohio St., Troy tallied 300 and 315 yards on offense respectively. The weakness of the Cowboys over the last few years has been the defense but they have been solid thus far as they are 29th in total defense after coming in 101st last season. That stop unit has a point to prove this time around after getting humiliated on the road last year in Troy.

Offense will be the key as Oklahoma St. is 13-4 ATS over the last three seasons when it scored 28 or more points. The Cowboys have scored 56 and 57 points in their last two games and they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 50 or more points since 1992. Since 2003, the average point differential in six games is +22.7 ppg.

Troy, meanwhile, is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after two or more consecutive spread wins. Look for the Cowboys to get their revenge in a big way here. Play the Cowboys for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Oklahoma St. -16½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Kent St. Golden Flashes +18 at Ball St. Cardinals

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The emotional and physical loss of Dante Love will have Ball State's minds elsewhere this week. Take Kent St. and the points when the Flashes visit the Cardinals in MAC play.

The Ball State Cardinals enter into this homecoming contest against visiting Kent State in a somber mood. Receiver Dante Love suffered a career-ending spinal cord injury last week in his team's 42-20 win against their state rivals, the Indiana Hoosiers. It must be noted that the young man had successful surgery to repair the damage, and is expected to walk again and live a normal life.

Love is currently ranked second in the nation in receiving yards, and was one of the Cardinals' all-time leaders at his position. His versatility also made him a dangerous special teams player, and the impact of his loss will be much greater than some pundits might expect.

The combination of last week's emotional win and the loss of one of their biggest stars will hinder the Cardinals' ability to concentrate and compete at a high level here this week, even though they are facing a sub .500 opponent in their MAC conference opener.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Kent State may only be 2-12 ATS dating back to last season, but for the most part they have been very competitive with their average margin of defeat ringing in at just 8 PPG.

Projected Score: Ball State-34 Kent-24

Free Pick: Kent State +18 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Ohio State Buckeyes -18 to flush Minnesota Golden Gophers

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | 10starpicks.com

Ohio State has had two weeks to think about that loss to USC, and they will be ready to take it out on Minnesota. Back the Buckeyes as big home favorites vs the Gophers.

This is a big step up in class for the Golden Gophers who have played twice against the MAC and faced teams from the Big Sky and Sun Belt Conferences. Minnesota's offense has looked good but they have taken advantage of a whopping +11 turnover margin.

After winning just a single game last year they have started the season 4-0. But that success looks to be short lived as they are without last year's leading rusher and they have battled major injuries along the offensive line. QB Adam Weber is a talent but we can't see him having any time to throw against this Ohio State front seven.

Beanie Wells is expected back for Ohio State this week and his addition should be a major plus for this offense. Tyrelle Pryor opened up the Buckeye passing game last week and he should have big success against this weak Minnesota secondary. The Gophers finished last year 115th in the nation against the pass and they enter this game last in the Big Ten this season despite playing weak competition.

Ohio State has cashed four of the last five meetings in this series and they have won their last three conference openers by an average of 33 points per game. After three poor offensive showings we expect the dual threat offense of Ohio State to come to life against a much weaker defensive squad.

Free Pick: Ohio St. -18

[Willie Bee]

Play Army Black Knights +28 at Texas A&M Aggies

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:30 PM -
By: Dave Malinsky | experts.covers.com

Mike Sherman should get his first win at Kyle Field in front of the Aggie faithful, but it's Stan Brock's Black Knights who will cover. Take Army and the points at Texas A&M.

Games in this pointspread range have to be broken down differently from others because of the obvious talent mismatch. These ATS outcomes are decided more based on the intensity of the teams, and it should not come as a surprise that we have landed here, because the service academy teams have been good to our pockets for a couple of decades when we could isolate the right spots.

These are disciplined athletes that are going to play hard for the full 60 minutes regardless of how the scoreboard reads, which is exactly what you want in an underdog in this price range, while at the same team the superior team is also more inclined to back off early, and not embarrass a service academy. With Army this week we get even more.

The Black Knights are 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the State of Texas the past six seasons, and we have put many of those results into our portfolio. There is a prime reason for those showings – they annually get more players from this state than anywhere else, and this season is no different with 27 Texans on the roster, including five starters. These trips mean something special to these athletes, and this one even more so because of Hurricane Ike. A lot of those Army players are from areas that were impacted, and we will let coach Stan Brock take it from there.

"It will be a big deal because this is the first time that these guys have seen their families since the hurricane went through there. Hopefully, some of the freshmen can step up in practice and make the road trip." Brock said. "We have six freshmen that we are hoping can travel so they can go home and see their family."

The energy that those freshmen brought to the practices this week is something that will be infectious for the entire team, and veteran starting guard Brandon Cox, from Schertz, TX, echoes the sentiments.

"Going home, seeing a bunch of family, having everyone come to the game, it’s going to be fun, going to be exciting. I’ve been to Kyle Field two or three times with my grandfather, he’s an alum there. I’ve been to a couple of games and the atmosphere is unbelievable."

The key on the field is that the Black Knights also help to tactically get the game home as well. Brock has gone to an all-out option package on offense, looking to slow the game tempo down whenever possible. That has led to some stodgy offensive snap counts through the first three games, keyed by an Army offensive ratio of 161 running plays vs. only 39 passes. That will not change here – they will stay with the ground attack regardless of the game situation, and that will severely reduce the opportunities that the favored Aggies will have to get near this pointspread. Making it even more difficult is that A&M simply is not very good, particularly in the area of rush defense, which matters so much this week.

Texas A&M has already lost outright to Arkansas State on this field, and was not competitive in last week’s 41-23 loss to Miami, a game that was nowhere near what the scoreboard showed. The Aggies scored on the first snap from scrimmage, a 62-yard touchdown pass from Jerrod Johnson to Mike Goodson, and then were bullied by an embarrassing 41-3 fashion until the Hurricanes backed off late in the game.

Note that in the only A&M win it was a +3 turnover advantage at New Mexico that did the trick (the Lobos led 370-236 in total offense), and that this defense is allowing 210 yards per game overland, at an alarming 5.7 yards per carry. That weakness enables Army to get some first downs and keep the clock ticking, which turns this pointspread into Mt. Everest.

And even should the Aggies get a few big plays to get near the number, Mike Sherman is not the kind of coach to pile it on here, particularly with the Big 12 opener at Oklahoma State immediately on deck. He would be more than satisfied to get a win by far less than this spread, and to get his starters out of the game as early as possible.

Free Pick: Army +28 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Louisville Cardinals -3½ at home vs. UConn Huskies

Game Time: 09/26/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Louisville has the better defense in this Big East matchup with Connecticut, and the Cardinals have been improving on offense. Lay the points on the 'Ville at the Huskies.

Louisville struggled offensively in their first two games, but it appears as if quarterback Hunter Cantwell is starting to adjust to his new receiving corps, as he averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in last week’s win over Kansas State.

Louisville has actually improved every game offensively since being held to just 2.9 yards per play and zero offensive points in their 2-27 opening loss to Kentucky. Cantwell is still well below average throwing the ball for the season (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback), but he has proven the past three years that he can throw the ball (8.0 yppp on 168 pass plays) – so the Cardinals could be very good offensively if the new group of receivers continue to improve (they run the ball very well already).

Connecticut’s defense, averaging 3.5 sacks (11 total sacks in two games with star DE Lindsey Wittin playing – he has four of them), should put some pressure on Cantwell in this game and the Huskies are good against the pass (4.6 yppp allowed). But the Huskies are just mediocre defending the run, so Louisville should move the ball at a decent clip.

The reason I like the Cardinals in this game is their much improved defense that’s limiting opponents to just 2.4 yards per rushing play (those opponents would combine to average 4.3 yprp against an average defense). Connecticut is a running team (67% running plays) that has averaged 6.0 yprp in 4 games this season (against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp), so the key to this game is stopping the Huskies’ rushing attack – which it appears Louisville can do. My math favors Louisville by 6 points, so I’ll lean with the Cardinals minus the points.

Prediction: Louisville-27 Connecticut-21

Free Pick: Louisville -3½ (-103)

[Willie Bee]

Alabama Crimson Tide +6½ at Georgia Bulldogs

Game Time: 09/27/2008 07:45 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Georgia has yet to impress like you'd expect a team with BCS Title hype would, and Alabama is going to be the Bulldogs' toughest test yet. Take the Tide and the points.

I really have seen little from Georgia that impresses me yet, as hyped up as they were in the preseason polls. Even more confusing to me is all the hype over their QB Matt Stafford, who is a good QB, but nothing like the Heisman candidate he was touted as being. Looking at his numbers, if he was in the Big 12 conference he would be the eighth rated QB on stats alone!

Georgia is pulling out all the stops here, and wearing black jerseys for this game, and creating a great deal of buildup for this crucial SEC tilt. Bear in mind that under head coach Nick Saban, Alabama has not lost by more than seven points.

With both defenses quite good, I still lean towards the Tide's defense here as the better run stoppers, and at days end the running game will create the most opportunities for the team that can establish it best. Alabama runs it for 5.9 yards per carry, which is impressive, and they are off the total destruction of Arkansas last week.

Georgia had to travel to Tempe and they beat a so/so Arizona State team by 17, which once again was hyped by ESPN as a huge deal for Georgia. The Sun Devils had lost to UNLV the week before. The Bulldogs barely escaped South Carolina with a win, and that game included some miracles for them to walk away with a win. Alabama is far superior to South Carolina.

Alabama's Glenn Coffe at RB is a great pounder inside and has speed, and QB John Parker Wilson is solid, but not quite as good as Stafford for Georgia. I do however respect and admire RB Knowshon Moreno for the Dawgs with 455 yards so far, though this will be his toughest test to date, facing a very good stop unit. I expect Georgia to pass it more than run it here, and if the Tide can rush the passer with success, it plays well into their plans of being a blue collar workhorse type unit in this game.

In a low-scoring SEC bragging rights battle, with a Tide team used to playing tight games with the better defense, this is a three- or four-point game one way or the other. An outright Alabama win would not shock me in this game folks, as this is the win that Nick Saban has been waiting for since his arrival at Alabama, the one signature win he needs to raise the bar for the Tide faithful.

Prediction: Alabama-17 Georgia-14

Free Pick: Alabama +6½ (-110)

[awhitejackson]

Thanks willie bee... Really thinking about taking that Army game now....Too bad about Louisville. I was on that game as well, and they should have covered but fell apart after scoring 21 unanswered...I guess thats why they call it gambling......GL

[gummo]

I disagree with the Ball State pick. I think they step up their play for Love.

[Willie Bee]

Virginia Tech Hokies +7 at Nebraska

Game Time: 09/27/2008 08:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Nebraska has destroyed three cupcakes, but we expect them to be challenged by a Virginia Tech team that has faced three tough opponents. Coming off a nice road win at North Carolina, take the Hokies.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 3-0 and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 40.0-14.3, but the Virginia Hokies represent a jump up in class here.

After all, the Huskers three blowout wins have come vs. New Mexico State, San Jose State and Western Michigan. They are now facing a legitimate defense for the first time all year, and while the Hokies are allowing a few more points and yards than recent seasons, they have still displayed big play ability with 11 takeaways and seven sacks.

Also do not forget that Virginia Tech already has two conference wins, and their only loss was at East Carolina, so that have not faced the same cupcake schedule that Nebraska has taken on. They are also coming off of an impressive road win over an up and coming North Carolina program.

While Nebraska may have the more gaudy statistics on paper, we feel that a tougher schedule for Virginia Tech to this point has better prepared them to take this contest down to the wire, and an outright shocker would not surprise us.

Free Pick: Virginia Tech +7 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Ohio State Buckeyes -18½ to 'bean' Minnesota Golden Gophers

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

Ohio St.'s Jim Tressel has had two weeks to prepare for this home tilt with the Golden Gophers, and the Buckeyes should be more than ready to pour it on Minnesota.

As the Big Ten opens conference play this weekend, four schools enter unbeaten in their non-conference schedules. Penn State (4-0) and Wisconsin (3-0) are not surprises but Northwestern and Minnesota (both 4-0), sure are.

The Gophers are the real surprise in '08, as in Tim Brewster's first year in Minneapolis the not-so Golden Gophers ended the '07 season on a 10-game losing streak, finishing 1-11 SU and 4-7 ATS. The team finished 115th in pass D last year (289 YPG) and allowed 36.7 PPG, while finishing minus-15 in turnovers. Not many could have anticipated this year's 4-0 start, despite the fact that the schedule included home games with Northern Illinois, Montana St and FAU plus a road game at Bowling Green. After all, BG won in Minnesota last year and FAU won the Sun Belt title in '07 plus last year's New Orleans Bowl over Memphis, to finish 8-5. However, led by sophomore QB Adam Weber (71.8 percent completions with seven TDs and one INT) and a running game which has averaged 162.0 YPG, the Gophers have averaged 36.3 PPG, while allowing just 17.5 PPG.

As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes were humbled at USC two weeks ago and despite all the hype over Tyrelle Pryor's ascension to the starting QB slot last week against Troy (he went 10-16 with four TD passes plus ran for 66 yards), one can't ignore the fact that the Trojans actually outgained the Buckeyes in Columbus and OSU led just 14-10 in the fourth quarter before winning, 28-10. Remember, the 0-4 Ohio U Bobcats also led OSU in Columbus into the fourth quarter on September 6!

That being said, Minnesota is jumping way up in class in this game and let's note that the Gophers are just 2-33 vs Ohio State since 1969, including just 1-17 SU in Columbus. We've seen Ohio State "not measure up" in two straight BCS title games against elite teams from the SEC (Florida, then LSU) and at USC on September 13, but the Buckeyes are back in the Big Ten now. It's a conference they have dominated the last three seasons, going 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS against conference rivals from 2005-07. Lay the points with Ohio State.

Free Pick: Ohio St. -18½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Iowa & Northwestern Under 43

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:00 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Under has prevailed in the last three matchups between the Hawkeyes and Wildcats. Look for that to move to 4-0 today when Iowa hosts Northwestern in the Big Ten.

Given the quality of the defenses, the Under should improve on the 3-0 currently run in head-to-head meetings between Northwestern and Iowa.

The Wildcats are 4-0 and it's the defense that has helped them to the fast start. Pat Fitzgerald’s defense has already accumulated 14 sacks this season compared to 18 all of last year. Look for Northwestern to add to that total against an inexperienced Hawkeye offensive line that has already allowed eight sacks this season.

Additionally both teams have major questions and more than a few key injuries on offense. Iowa will go with Ricky Stanzi at QB and all the Hawkeyes are asking him to do is hand the ball off to Shonn Greene who is averaging 126 yards per game and has four TDs on the season. But Greene is going up against a Northwestern defense that gave up on four yards on the ground last week.

Iowa’s defense isn’t exactly chopped liver, seeing as they’re fifth in the country for scoring defense by averaging just 7.25 PPG in four matches. These are two very good defensive football teams and I’m expecting the score to stay well under the posted total.

Free Pick: Northwestern-Iowa Under 43 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Navy Midshipmen +16½ sail at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Game Time: 09/27/2008 03:45 PM -
By: Matt Foust | who2beton.com

Navy's ground game will keep the Wake Forest offense off the field and giving them less chance to run the score up. Midshipmen plus the points at the Demon Deacons.

The Navy Midshipmen are off to a 2-2 start this year, but this Saturday they will meet perhaps their toughest opponent to date in Wake Forest. Despite the difficult draw, we are going to go with Navy plus the points on the road against the Demon Deacons.

Navy’s two losses this year both occurred on the road, the first one against a high-powered Ball State team and the second versus the vastly improved Duke Blue Devils. The Midshipmen’s biggest issue in the Ball State game was their inability to get the Cardinals off the field on third down, consequently, they were dropped 35-23. Navy carried a 24-20 lead into halftime at Duke but allowed the Devils to post 21 second half points (they still finished within 10).

Wake Forest is a quality team but they have not exactly been overpowering. Their biggest win was their opener at Baylor (41-13), but the Bears handed the Deacons five turnovers, making the margin of victory more than it normally would have been. Since that win they beat Ole Miss 30-28 (Mississippi three turnovers) and Florida State 12-3 (FSU seven turnovers).Wake also has not exhibited a dominant running game (2.6 yards per carry) which could lead to more third and long situations versus Navy.

The Midshipmen have proven that they can run the ball (345.8 yards per game on the ground) and this will limit the Demon Deacons ability to run the score up. While their defense is far from being a big stopper, they should be able to get at least a few. Navy will not hand Wake points via turnover either, as their other opponents have. On the year the Midshipmen are averaging just one turnover per game.

Wake will get the win, but Navy will hang around here and make this game closer than people might think.

Free Pick: Navy +16½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Ole Miss Rebels +22 stay within number at Florida Gators

Game Time: 09/27/2008 12:30 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

Ole Miss head coach Houston Nutt is a perfect 5-0 against the spread in SEC games with his teams +14 or greater dogs. Back the Rebels today at the Florida Gators.

Ole Miss travels to The Swamp to meet the Florida Gators in an SEC clash this afternoon in a matchup of two teams each off 'Inside-Out' results.

That occurred when the Rebels lost 23-17 against Vanderbilt last week despite winning the stats, 385-202, while Florida trounced Tennessee 30-6 in a game they were outgained, 258-243. It all leads to the point that Florida's offense isn't holding up its end of the deal as they average 37 PPG despite gaining only 332 YPG.

With Mississippi head coach Houston Nutt a perfect 5-0 ATS in his career as a conference dog of 14 or more points, look for another upset of major proportion here today. Grab the points with the Rebels.

Free Pick: Ole Miss +22 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Alabama Crimson Tide +6½ at Georgia Bulldogs

Game Time: 09/27/2008 07:45 PM -
By: Tony George | 10starpicks.com

Georgia has yet to impress like you'd expect a team with BCS Title hype would, and Alabama is going to be the Bulldogs' toughest test yet. Take the Tide and the points.

I really have seen little from Georgia that impresses me yet, as hyped up as they were in the preseason polls. Even more confusing to me is all the hype over their QB Matt Stafford, who is a good QB, but nothing like the Heisman candidate he was touted as being. Looking at his numbers, if he was in the Big 12 conference he would be the eighth rated QB on stats alone!

Georgia is pulling out all the stops here, and wearing black jerseys for this game, and creating a great deal of buildup for this crucial SEC tilt. Bear in mind that under head coach Nick Saban, Alabama has not lost by more than seven points.

With both defenses quite good, I still lean towards the Tide's defense here as the better run stoppers, and at days end the running game will create the most opportunities for the team that can establish it best. Alabama runs it for 5.9 yards per carry, which is impressive, and they are off the total destruction of Arkansas last week.

Georgia had to travel to Tempe and they beat a so/so Arizona State team by 17, which once again was hyped by ESPN as a huge deal for Georgia. The Sun Devils had lost to UNLV the week before. The Bulldogs barely escaped South Carolina with a win, and that game included some miracles for them to walk away with a win. Alabama is far superior to South Carolina.

Alabama's Glenn Coffe at RB is a great pounder inside and has speed, and QB John Parker Wilson is solid, but not quite as good as Stafford for Georgia. I do however respect and admire RB Knowshon Moreno for the Dawgs with 455 yards so far, though this will be his toughest test to date, facing a very good stop unit. I expect Georgia to pass it more than run it here, and if the Tide can rush the passer with success, it plays well into their plans of being a blue collar workhorse type unit in this game.

In a low-scoring SEC bragging rights battle, with a Tide team used to playing tight games with the better defense, this is a three- or four-point game one way or the other. An outright Alabama win would not shock me in this game folks, as this is the win that Nick Saban has been waiting for since his arrival at Alabama, the one signature win he needs to raise the bar for the Tide faithful.

Prediction: Alabama-17 Georgia-14

Free Pick: Alabama +6½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Toledo Rockets -19½ blast Florida International Golden Panthers

Game Time: 09/27/2008 07:07 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | playbook.com

It's a Max Klinger special tonight at the Glass Bowl when Toledo hosts Florida International. Ride the Rockets to a rout Saturday at home over the Golden Panthers.

Off last week’s 55-54 double overtime home loss to No. 25 Fresno State, look for Toledo to get back on the winning track at the Glass Bowl against Florida International!

After breaking down this contest, the home versus road dichotomy was too juicy to pass up. In their last 50 games in Toledo, the Rockets have exploded to the tune of 43-7 SU and 31-12 ATS including a money-making 16-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in this set coming off a straight up loss. Meanwhile, foreign soil has been a problem for the Panthers of FIU. Since last season, Florida International is a woeful 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS as a guest and that includes a pair of beatings at Kansas (40-10) and Iowa (42-0) this season.

If you want to beat Toledo, you need to put points on the board. That’s the one thing that FIU can’t do. In three games against Kansas, Iowa and South Florida, the Panthers have posted a grand total of 17 points. Granted, the Jayhawks, Hawkeyes and Bulls are all decent defensive teams. But, Toledo plays an elevated game at the Glass Bowl and they can do a number on you in this stadium on both sides of the ball.

With a 1-2 SU record and wars against Ball State and Michigan on deck, the Rockets know they can’t take Florida International lightly. That last thing UT wants is to travel to Northern Illinois on October 18 in desperate need of its second win of the season. Lay the lumber here men!

Free Pick: Toledo -19½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Texas Longhorns -27½ stampede Arkansas Razorbacks

Game Time: 09/27/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Arkansas is struggling under new coach Bobby Petrino while Texas is clicking behind veteran QB Coly McCoy. Look for the Longhorns to blow out the Razorbacks today.

The Arkansas Razorbacks hope to get back on track after a blowout loss to Alabama when they travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns. After losing their head coach and two top players Darren McFadden and Felix Jones to the NFL from last years Cotton Bowl team, the Razorbacks are hoping that new coach Bobby Petrino and his spread offense will keep things going in the right direction.

However, the passing game last season ranked only 112th as the rushing game averaged over 300 yards per game. This season the Razorbacks have averaged only 117 yards per game on the ground while their passing game has averaged 286. The defense is in the process of working in six new starters, including all four in the secondary.

The Longhorns come into this game off a 3-0 start but the faithful are restless as they haven't participated in a meaningful bowl game since their championship game of three seasons ago. Texas has a veteran QB in Colt McCoy who is the fourth quarterback in Texas history to throw for 3,000 yards in a season. That fact gives some solace to Longhorn fans since they still haven't settled on a replacement for running back Jamaal Charles. The defense gave up a whopping 25.2 points per game last season so Texas brought in defensive coordinator Will Muschamp from Auburn. So far, although their opponents have been less than stellar, their defense has given up only 11 points per game.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: Texas is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992. Playing as home favorites of 21½ or more points (Texas), who rushes for more than 4.8 YPR against a team with a terrible rushing defense who gives up more than 4.8 YPR in non-conference games, is 23-4 ATS since 1992.

New Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp coached against the Hogs while at Auburn, and knows his weaknesses while veteran Texas QB will pick apart a terrible Arkansas defense. I'm taking Texas in a blowout.

Free Pick: Texas -27½ (+100)