Originally Posted by
blowjoe2020
LOL Well one of you posted about the spread being 3 flat. So to that comment, yes Jay, I totally agree that IF the spread was 3 flat then that number would be absolutely neutral and the action would not be influenced either way.
But the 3.5 number is nowhere near a "neutral" spread number! Since they put it at 3.5, then there are PLENTY of people, whether novices or not, that it will influence into taking plus 3.5 simply because of that extra half a point!
Now as for Ed, you can forget the personal attacks and you saying that I called you a "novice"! LOL I don't see your name anywhere in my post. So since you didn't seem to read what I wrote, or you didn't comprehend what I wrote, I will type it one more time.
If you don't read it or comprehend it THIS time, then I will stop wasting our time!
You write "you're completely over-analyzing a point spread for you which you can't even be sure of it's motive."
LOL Buddy, if you don't think that the books putting the line out at 3.5 instead of 3 flat is not TOTALLY motivated by them knowing that it will make the novice public flood their money onto Clemson because they will be getting the extra half point from 3, then you are less than a novice!
Why do you think buying a half a point either way off of 3 flat (or 7 flat) on a bet is 20 or 30% EXTRA juice? Because of how different and important 3.5 and 7.5 are!
I know exactly what the "motive" is by Vegas putting the line out at 3.5 instead of 3 flat. If you had read what I said instead of focusing on the word "novice" (which I didn't even call you!) then you would see that all I basically wrote was that when Vegas makes a line like 3.5 or 7.5 then their "motive" behind it is that they KNOW the novice public will always get suckered into betting plus 3.5 or + 7.5. Because they think the half a point might "matter" and they might win by a half a point. Vegas knows this and makes boo-koos of money by making the line and knowing what side it is going to make the majority of the public bet on.
That's all I ever said and that's all I ever meant!
So like I ALSO said.... with Vegas having the balls to put the line at 3.5 instead of 3 flat, and knowing that it will make the majority of the action be put on Clemson +3.5 then I'd wager that they think OSU will cruise.
And you also mentioned something about "people who themselves do not know the future outcome" LOL Pal, NOBODY knows the future outcome of a sporting event! I just hope that doesn't mean that you DO think you know the outcome because you "handicapped" it! LOL You'd be the biggest laughing stock to me that I'd ever imagined!
Vegas and the online books set the lines not because of any other "motive" than to simply try and get equal action on both sides where they can rake the 10% grease and not risk anything, but when they put one out at 3.5 or 7.5 it is extremely important and influential as to which side the public suckers are going to take. That's why I said Vegas had "balls" to start it out at 3.5 because they know the flood of early public action that is going to produce on the Clemson side. That's why I also said It leads me to believe that they think OSU will cruise.
As for "Handicapping"! LOL Well I think it is absolute folly. A fumble here, an interception there, or a bad spot or a bad call, and all your "handicapping" is immediately out the window!
so please don't focus on "assuming" that I called YOU a novice! I'm just having fun here.
If you are not having fun with me then just don't reply!
I stopped driving myself crazy trying to "handicap" games 15 years ago! And like I said I just started looking at the lines. They tell you SO much about who Vegas is trying to influence you into taking. And then I try to get on the Vegas side of the game. I don't even look at teams as much as I look at the line. It may seem absolutely stupid, or "superstitious" or "amateurish" to you, but I've changed many peoples' minds when they see how often the OPPOSITE of what the novice public takes works on lines with these 4 important numbers of 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, and 7.5. Start looking and you will see that taking my 2 favorite bets of +2.5 and +6.5 runs at about a 65 or even 70% clip.
That is why I also posted: "My 2 favorite bets are plus 2.5 and plus 6.5. I feel like I don't even have to watch the game when I bet one of those 2 lines, because they win so often."
All you focused on out of everything that I wrote was that you thought for some reason I had called YOU a novice when I really did not. You didn't even comprehend ANYTHING I wrote after your brain focused on thinking you had been called a novice. You don't even care that Clemson is +3.5, that number means NOTHING to you, You'd take Clemson if they were only plus 2.5! (So would I by the way! If OSU had come out at minus 2.5 then I'd have a 10 star on Clemson!) You missed my WHOLE point which is that I look at lines, not teams! (And I sure as hell don't waste time "handicapping"! One fumble or interception, or a missed 3rd and 1 resulting in a punt makes all handicapping go right down the drain and you are just left seeing if you have the right side or not.) And like I said I think being on the right side of the LINE that Vegas set is much more important than handicapping! If you disagree and you don't think that lines matter, then who cares? It doesn't matter to me! It is one of the only things that I have seen in 25 years that consistently works.
So now please focus on us having a good time until DEC 31st! And then we will see who is right!
I will bet you 2 things: #1 the half point off three flat that will make the novice public sucker into taking +3.5 will NOT come into play on deciding the spread. And #2 Like I said in the beginning, that you totally overlooked while only focusing on the word "novice",
"With Vegas having the balls to put the line at 3.5 instead of 3 flat, and knowing that it will make the majority of the early "novice public" action be put on Clemson +3.5 then I'd wager that they think OSU will cruise."
Just always remember, that you, or anyone else taking the points is NEVER a bad idea to me! EXCEPT when it is plus 3.5! That is the ONLY one that I DON'T like! (and also +7.5)
If Clemson was +2.5 then I'd be posting ALL the exact same stuff, EXCEPT that I would be saying that Clemson was a 10 star pick in my opinion!
So as you can see, I'm not AGAINST you in ANY way, nor did I say you are a novice, I'm only against the side of the 3.5 line that you have taken! I think that is who Vegas has made the novices bet on by setting the line at 3.5. That's it! That is how I bet. I don't drive myself crazy "handicapping" & trying to figure out who is "better" than who. I bet lines, not teams. So based on the 3.5 line that Vegas has set, I think OSU will win & get the cover. If it was 2.5 then I'd think Clemson +2.5 was the winner. That's it. End of story. The end.
Now would you like to have some fun cutting up about it since neither of us have a clue who will fumble or drop a pass or who will win the game?
Or will you only focus on some name that you think I called you in this post and get ill about it & not even comprehend the rest? LOL It's your choice!
Take care.
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Everybody witnessed this Blowjob idiot edit his post in the other thread FOURTEEN hours after he originally submitted it. And then the dumb bastard expects to slip it all right under our noses as if we wouldn't catch it!
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