Likely my last play of the day:
7:30 Marshall/Pittsburgh o63 (-105)
This number almost seems too good to be true. Marshall and Pitt are averaging 42.7 (T19) and 36 (#48) points per game this season, respectively. (Yes, Marshall racked up 62 points against Morgan St, so that average skews a little high.) Offensively, the Thundering Herd is averaging 10.1 yards per point (#7), and the Panthers are averaging 11.4 YPPT (T24). On the defensive side, the averages are 11.6 YPPT allowed for Marshall (#116), and 13.2 (T80) for Pitt. In other words, we have two high powered offenses going against two generous defenses. From a matchup perspective, Marshall looks to get it done through the air. Reports are that QB Chase Litton will be back for tonight’s game. He had 722 yards and 2 TDs in Marshall’s first two games before being injured in the 4th quarter against Akron (concussion). Litton will face a Pitt defense that ranks next to last in the nation in passing yards allowed (361/game). The Pitt secondary has been susceptible to the big play – 4 UNC receivers had catches of 20+ yards last week – and Marshall has 9 receivers with catches of 20+ yards this season. When Pitt has the ball, the Panthers will likely look to run, thought last week Nate Peterman showed that he is capable of throwing the ball (and WR Quadree Henderson leads the nation in all-purpose yards). Marshall’s defense ranks 144th in yards allowed, so whatever path the Panthers choose they are likely to encounter very little resistance. I have this game getting into the 90s, but we don’t need anything close to that. Others say: PW 73, PP 69, Steele 70, GS 57, Massey 69.
Good luck everyone!