I've been looking at the market as a whole and with some tough matchups for high profile teams it seems there may be a tendency for losing bettors to pick upsets as the rotation advances through the weekend, creating a nice chase for a large group of bettors.
Some issues are about one team succeeding, some are more about one team failing or letting down. This game depends on whether the "upset" PREDICTION is founded in a USC success or more of an Alabama failure.
If the notion of the upset comes as USC being successful and you see media hype on USC, the chances of a USC outright upset decreases significantly.
On the other hand, if you are expecting an upset to be more of an Alabama let down, there may be a solid underdog bet.
If you can figure out the prevailing mentality for an upset bet and then quantify the media "hype" my assertion about the chances of this game can be backed with evidence.
The problem is that it is week one and it is difficult to assess who is in a position to "let down" their bettors and who is in a position to be a success. We need to see the flow of money.
The good news is that it is a 5:00 game and there will be plenty of market evidence to at least make a probabilistic decision.
One last thing, it isn't as difficult as it may seem to at least lightly quantify the media hype. There are very few news originators in the world and most outlets simple repeat one of those sources for all news, including sports. We also have things like rankings that contribute to the hype. Once you get a few factors down and some experience, it can be done.
Many of you already do this based on feel and what you've seen, it can be very subjective. You can tell when the media is all over one team or not. I encourage you quantify what you are witnessing, or at least keep notes for the future. I say this for a couple of reasons. One is my often repeated mantra of keeping track of your bets and why you made them. The other is that eventually your notes will need to be organized as even one season's worth of information can be overwhelming.
Good Luck, The Giant.