[iloseagain]

ya finally was some parity in nfl this week.....

zona was a bit scary with the 2 defensive tds (one on 3 yard line) but I figured seattle defense wasnt stopping zona all night so was confident even when they were down....refreshing to see referees actually throw the flag on seattle secondary and not let them get away with all the holding/illegal contacts they have been known to get away with for years now.....fuk u pete carrol

Week 10 NFL : 5-2 +2.85 units

yea for sure. i was pissed when they got those tds because i had u23.5 and they were on 23 and then got another td.. garbage.

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 12:


Gtech/Miami Over 55 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami has proven incapable of slowing down georgia tech over the last 3 years allowing an average over 300 yards per game rushing at over 5 yards per carry. I already talked about how shitty and banged up this gtech defense is. Kaaya should be able to pick apart this defense and have no problem moving the ball. Both these defenses are god awful by the numbers and only way we dont cash this is if gtech fumbles all over the place like they did last week to fuk my other over against vtech.

Michigan State Team Total over 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Ive loved connor cook and this msu offense for years now. No reason they cant hit 20. Sure OSUs defensive statistics are heavily padded, but who have they played?

UNC -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
As much as Ive been backing and loving this vtech team lately I have to fade them in this spot and am a little perplexed by this low number. (I guess because of last years result but these were two different teams) UNC thrives on the big play, ranking 3rd in FEI ratings explosive drive ratings (only behind a couple offenses like baylor and w kentucky who play nobodies). Vtech defense biggest vulnerability is their susceptibility to the big play, ranking 71st. The combination of hood and switzers abilitys to open up the field sideline to sideline and run down hill north south are a deadly combination for larry fedoras offense and he should not have a problem scoring at will as he has done against most teams. Vtechs offense just wont be able to keep up and although brewer has looked good I expect him to be rattled and struggle when the pressure is on his shoulders and theyre throwing every down because they are down big early. UNC covers easily. I cant wait for the clemson/unc matchup will be one to watch.

[ZINISTER]

UNC is a true up and coming program. I am shocked by the line also. I thought they laid a heavy line out on em last week and looked for it to be higher then it is this week. This Vtech team is never going to quit. They are battle tested and going to be a real good test for the Heels. UNC will play from out in front and hold off the Hokies. This match-up with a physical Vtech team will help prepare them for the Huge game with Clemson. GL

[oh_lol]

Want to follow but all the lines on my book are jacked up. GT&Miami O57.5 and UNC -6.5. Not sure if I wanna tail yet, any comments?

[ZINISTER]

Laying the points in this situation is tough. Beemer is on a farewell tour. Brewer is back at QB. The kid is scrappy and has big nards. He will stand in the pocket and deliver the tough passes. I feel it is a pass. I have been on UNC early and often. Staying away this time. GL

[Smutbucket]

Really? my book now has at -4.5 for unc...not much of a difference from that and 5.5 .....I would say your good anything under 7....

Got a couple more in the works theyre just sitting around some key numbers so gonna wait and probably post in morning.....

[oh_lol]

Wow just checked, UNC has moved to -3.5 in the space of 3 hours on my bookie.
Will take them now.

[Smutbucket]

Ya nice number not sure how the books dont go broke on handing out that number? what are they testing there? no way that much of the market is on vtech....no fugging way....lies....books are liars....


couple more locked in....will add a couple more tmrw

Additions
Louiville +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Pitt is a run first team. Louisvilles defense specialty is stopping the run. If kyle bolin plays anything like he did against the syracuse game I watched, the louisville offense should do just fine. Even with heavy pressue bolin stepped up and made incredible throw after throw. People on the forums and stuff been saying petrino is done, his offense is garbage, I think its just been his lack of talent at the quaterback position and finally bolin has been starting to step up. His playcalling and play design are some of the best in the league. As much as I love narduzzi and this pitt team I think they lose this one but Ill take the points to be safe.

Duke +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
In the Cutliffe vs London rivalry, Cutliffe is dominating London 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Dukes team is expierenced and coming off some tough losses to some tough teams. Virginia has won 3 games all season and theyve all been shitty competition. This line is another weird line that I feel like should be duke-3. but I suppose its the recent ATS trends thats slightly skewing it Im not really sure, bookies set funny lines based on markets and not necessarily what the line ought to be. Some other numbers to consider to emphasize the weirdness of this line, UVA's defense, ranked #100 vs run at 4.9 yards per rush, ranked #118th vs the pass at 8.6 yards per pass. Dukes defense, ranked 16th against rush giving up 3.4 yards per rush, and 89th against the pass giving up 7.6 yards per pass. UVAs offense, ranked 93rd in rushing at 3.9 yards per rush, and 90th in passing at 6.5 yards per pass. Dukes offense, ranked 39th in rushing going for 4.7 yards per pass, and #111 in passing at only 5.8 yards per pass but that should change against this shitty defense. Honestly feel like this should be a 1.5 unit bet but im gonna lay off just because of how suspicious it is.

[iloseagain]

UNC is scary because of VTechs coaches last game obviously..

GL this weekend man!

[BiffTFinancial]

Agree with you on GT/U over, think i probably will join you on that. BOL this weekend Smut!

[Smutbucket]

Agree with you on GT/U over, think i probably will join you on that. BOL this weekend Smut!

Ya a little concerned about possible thunderstorms in report.....although Im just an hr north of miami and yesterday weather report was like 75% chance of rain and it never even clouded up the entire day........plus thunderstorms down here only last 20min top so I think we'll be alright

[Smutbucket]

Additions:
LSU +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Expect LSU to throw everything they got at ole miss this week. Even though ole miss defense is ranked high against the run, they allowed bama and arkansas to run all over them. Theyve been excelling with the weaker teams and have struggled with any good rush offenses. Ive watched a lot of ole miss games this year and I hate hugh freezes playcalling, he loves to throw even when he is given the run, even when he has a big lead, leading to mistakes and turnovers (they are ranked 114th with 2.2 giveaways per game) maybe he just loves that now he has a qb capable of throwing. Once ole miss starts stacking the box expect LSU to throw down the field a lot and often to keep this game close. LSU defense wont be pushed around like it was against bama and arkansas (hugh will probably just throw all day even if he is successful in the run). Love the points here and may even sprinkle some on the ml when its out. Les miles is in desperate need of a big win after two big losses and I expect the team to rally around him giving him everything they got. Les is also 2-1 SU against hugh and 1-2 ATS, but the games have always been close and within a TD so, expect it to be so this game. We also have the "after a bye" factor I talked about earlier in season, which ole miss has struggled under hugh freeze scoring 0 pts in two games after byes last year against arkansas and against bama in '13.

Mississippi State +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 12 card
Gtech/Mia Over 55 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UNC -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Michigan State TT Over 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 untis to win 1 units
Louisville +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
LSU +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miss State +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Duke +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[GoCougs!]

Love the picks. Do you follow west coast ball at all? Pac-12 has been tough this year. I like UW to cover on the road. I would prefer they lose (Go Cougs!), but they should man-handle OSU. The UW offense is not great, but their defense should be able to shut down Oregon State.

[Smutbucket]

ya not as much....pac 12 been very crazy inconsistent this year with no distinguishable winners and losers for me so Ive been laying off them a lot ....hate watching bad defense....I probably like both programs out of washington the best out of pac12 and they usually have good value especially against the cali teams, but besides that didnt really look into that one too much

[iloseagain]

did you look at indiana +1? Looks good to me

[2daBank]

ville seems like a really good bet to me, wrong team favored imo.. wanna play unc but cant bring myself to do so. check out mizzou for later, i grabbed +7, vols tt under 25, and might take a stab at the +205 ml as i think tigers get pinkle the last win they need to send him bowling in his final season.. gl today brother.

[iloseagain]

did you look at indiana +1? Looks good to me

my god what a joke.

EDIT: Ind was down 21-3 now they are up 27-21.. Crazy game.. Thought they were toast on the road down 21-3 though.

[EVfollower]

Tailed LSU but took +4 1st half and tailed Louisville but got PK. Good record so far let's ghope it continues.

[iloseagain]

Man, you have some balls betting on LSU after those last 2 games. I have to say the same about Miss St. I feel like Arkansas is playing really well. I never will doubt your picks because you are obviously a great capper, and i typically tail all of your picks because of that, but I will say GL on LSU and Miss St. I am going to lay off those ones. I will be rooting for you to prove me wrong though

[Smutbucket]

ugh rough day.

Adding
Cal +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 11:
Packers +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Colts/Atl Over 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Redskins TT Under 17.5 (+100) Risking .5 to win .5 units
Rams +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texans +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 12 card
Gtech/Mia Over 55 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
UNC -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Michigan State TT Over 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 untis to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Louisville +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
LSU +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Miss State +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Duke +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Cal +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1

NCAAF Week 12: 2-6 -4.6 units


NFL Week 11:
Packers +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Colts/Atl Over 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Redskins TT Under 17.5 (+100) Risking .5 to win .5 units WIN +.5
Rams +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units PUSH
Texans +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1

NFL Week 11: 3-1 +1.4 units





NCAAF 2015 Season YTD:
63-41 (61%) +21.12 units

NFL 2015 Season YTD:
30-29 (51%) -4.08 units

Thread Total:
93-70 (57%) +17.04 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 13:
Iowa -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Already talked about both these teams a lot this season. Iowas run game is legit just notice how any RB they plug in can be successful (hint: its the line) Combine that with best dual threat qb in college football cj beathard, and you have an very winnable game. We also have a strong coaching edge. Iowa is ranked 3rd in rushing yards gained on passing downs according to FO. Defenses are not suspecting the runs and have to respect beathard arm and big play ability so much that even in long yardage situations, Iowa has been able to pick it up on the ground. Their defensive secondary has also stepped up a lot allowing only 53% pass comp % of opponents ranked 14th and 5.9 yards per pass ranked 13th. Iowa is also one of the best in the league at protecting the ball and causing turnovers while nebraska is one of the worst. Buy a half point and get at -2 while you can because I feel like number could drop as much as -4 and this could be a tight game although I am comfortable with the -2 to atleast get a push. Friday day game too....hell penetrating yes

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 12:
Cowboys +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[No coincidences]

NCAAF Week 12 card
Gtech/Mia Over 55 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
UNC -5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Michigan State TT Over 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 untis to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Louisville +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
LSU +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Miss State +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Duke +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Cal +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1

NCAAF Week 12: 2-6 -4.6 units


NFL Week 11:
Packers +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Colts/Atl Over 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Redskins TT Under 17.5 (+100) Risking .5 to win .5 units WIN +.5
Rams +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units PUSH
Texans +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1

NFL Week 11: 3-1 +1.4 units





NCAAF 2015 Season YTD:
63-41 (61%) +21.12 units

NFL 2015 Season YTD:
30-29 (51%) -4.08 units

Thread Total:
93-70 (57%) +17.04 units

Nice work, man. Crushing it.

[Smutbucket]

Thanks coiner, good to see ya around

Week 13 NCAAF Addition

Arkansas Team Total Under 30 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Missouri has only allowed over 30 points once this entire season against a very capable miss. state offense that is averaging 33 points a game. Missouris defense has been so sound year in and year out since pinkel took over because of his strong fundamental coaching. Their technique and execution are a result of great coaching and I fully expect Missouri to leave it all on the field as Pinkel announced his retirement due to health reasons at the end of the year. Their defensive line should be able to outmaneuver this large oline of arkansas and shutdown their run game, a key part to arkansas's offensive success. In last years matchup arkansas only put up 14 points .A little baffled by the high number but I guess its because arkansas has put up a ton of points lately but against weak defenses and dont expect everyone to be able to get it this high, but anything under 27.5 I would take.

[iloseagain]

nice pick on arky

[Smutbucket]

2-0 +2 units

arky was scary there forgot to even look at weather and thought we were in great shape when saw all the rain but ended up being close

Adding tcu for half unit with weather delay

Week 12 Adding:
TCU +2 (-110) Risking .55 unit to win .5 units

[iloseagain]

iowa seemed awfully square/easy at -2, but the longer i looked at it, the more and more i liked iowa. I dont know how anyone could have possibly taken nebraska +2 in that game. Surprised it wasnt at least iowa -3. Nice day

[Smutbucket]

ya lots of iowa hate going around because of their soft schedule but If youve watched them you know they are dominant on both sides of the ball with one of the best qbs around and a very good run game and a very good secondary. Their d-line also lost their best lineman early in OTT...too bad....anyways

Week 13 NCAAF results so far: 3-0 +2.5 units

Week 13 Additions....more to come tmrw too....

Ohio State -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
I expect Meyer to have the offense firing on all cylinders. Last weeks poor performance was largely a result of terrible weather conditions, taking away ohio states speed and big play ability. Meyer after a loss is 15-6-1 ATS. His team will be prepared after a big kick in the nuts last week as they thought they were gonna coast to the playoffs but now they need to win and win big the next two games to get there. Jake Rudock should help us win this game as he has a tendency to blow games and throw a lot of interceptions because his release is slow, as well as his timing. Amazing to see how well harbaugh has done with a QB like him and it will be scary once he gets his system in place and a real QB playing for him. Michigans once dominant defense has sustained key injuries on their line which has left them vulnerable to the run over the last few weeks, giving up over 4.0+ yards per carry against rutgers, minnesota and indiana.(holding a shitty predictable penn state offense to 70 yards rushing does not count for much) This will be one hell of a game I will sure to be watching and its a 1.5x unit bet, which I believe I am still undefeated on for the season something like 7-0 on all bets over 1.5 units.

North Carolina -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NC State getting way too much credit here, probably because of last years beatdown of UNC but that was mainly because UNC just came out flat footed and unprepared not respecting NCstate and NCstate came out firing, not to mention marquis only played half the game and switzer only 3 qtrs. The most important stat for this game, DEx. Explosive Drive Rate which we all know how UNC has been a big play monster all season, ranked 3rd, which trend should continue against NC states defensive explosive drive rate allowed which is ranked 103rd. I expect UNC to be fully prepared and ready to repay the beatdown they received last year from this team. Theyve probably been preparing for them all off season as they knew they were one of their tougher rivalry games and it was scheduled for the last game of the season.

Vtech TT Over 27 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
Keep this one short as I already talked a lot about vtech and brewer. This line is low because this matchup has been historically low scoring over the last few years. But Virginias defense is worse than it has ever been giving allowing opponents to average 6.3 yards per play against them.

FSU/UF Under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[iloseagain]

love that florida under lets get it!!

[iloseagain]

vtech woke up in the 4q

[Smutbucket]

Week 13 Additions
New Mexico Lobos +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I know its rare to see me bet on a shitty matchup like this one but some key factors stood out I could not say no to. (plus its a 10:15 pm game!) Air force is 9-3 ATS on the season, VERY RARELY do you ever see a team finish 10-3 ATS, and New mexico is 5-6 so these ATS factors are skewing this line. Since Bob Davie took over at New Mexico they have always been well prepared to face the option and they have always been close games. LY New Mexico held Air force to only 3.64 yards per carry. im pretty confident new mexico covers this one easily at home if not wins outright.

Ole Miss -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[AJisKewl]

Smutbucket/DapperDan - Great respect for your picks man. Excellent write-ups.

Keep up the good work!