[FSUnole05]

I know the Ducks will likely exact their revenge from last year's loss to Arizona, but I can't see them covering 23.5 pts. I'm seriously looking at taking Arizona +23.5 because I see Oregon winning convincingly, but by 3 TDs at most. Also think the Under (76) looks good because I can easily see a 45-27 type game. Anyone else have any leans or thoughts?

[mtofell]

I saw the line today and was shocked. I was expecting around 15. I live in Oregon and love to see them do well but am also realistic. They have looked ho-hum so far this year and lost to this team last year. The public LOVES to bet on big favorites like ORE which drives the line up to a large extent. This line should probably 3-5 points less but the books like to be in the middle of the bets rather than what they think the score will be (yes all you Vegas conspiracy theorists are lost). I'm hoping it gets bet up to 24 but will likely jump on anything over 21. I'll probably throw a few bucks on the ML for AZ to win as well.

I'll be rooting ORE with my heart and AZ with my wallet.

Edit: just checked Vegas odds and it opened at 25 1/2 and has been bet down to 23 or 23 1/2 depending on the book. My hope of it getting up to 24 is probably gone. Anything north of 3TDs is a GREAT buy IMO.