[DerekMadden]

Every year there are teams that I put an auto-fade on (Auburn 2012),
Who is it for you?


Numero one for me will be SMU with their atrociously bad QB.

[navyblue81]

Anyone know if Memphis is still atrocious this year? They made me lots of $$$$ last year.

FAU looked pretty bad. Nebraska's okay, but they're not that good.

[TPowell]

UMass. They've been overvalued the past 2 weeks. I hated laying points with BC on the road but they got the job done. I'll do it again this week with Colorado

[Ralphie Halves]

You need to find teams that people actually perceive as being good to pull this off.

If I had to pick one, it would be VTech. IMO, Beamer is approaching the end. Not great talent this year either.

[HendoNation]

Watch out with SMU, they have a stud QB in Texas A&M transfer Matt Davis. Whether June Jones will realize this and commit to him, I don't know. I will say that I have never seen a football team as bad as SMU was against Baylor.

[Urbanwildlife]

You need to find teams that people actually perceive as being good to pull this off.

If I had to pick one, it would be VTech. IMO, Beamer is approaching the end. Not great talent this year either.

Ditto! His better days have completely past him by.

[hokies21]

Ralphie. I would argue that Virginia Tech actually has some very good talent this year. Kendall Fuller, one of the top corners in the country and Brandon Fasycon, both great corners. Luther Maddy, great DT. Isaiah Ford, will be an impact freshmen at WR, Having Ryan Malleck back at TE and Bucky Hodges, will be able to create some mismatches. Although Beamer may be on his decline, still the winning active coach. Virginia Tech is in good hands with Bud Fosters Defensive able to dial in. With the recent loss of Braxton Miller, I think the playing field got very close to even. This will be a very large game for the Hokies on the road, as it will be the largest crowd they have ever played in front of, in history of the program(Until 2016,Battle at Bristol vs Tennessee). I'm not saying that the Hokies are going to go to Columbus and come out with a W, but im not saying were not going to. I think -12 they will cover, and I do they they can get the Win. Hokies Moneyline is a lean

[suicidekings]

Northwestern is probably good to go again. Laying -7 to NIU likely won't work out well for them.

Actually, I take that back. Apparently there was a horrendous coaching error in defensive play calling that explains a lot.. http://www.insidenu.com/2014/9/2/609...wristbands-cal

[hokies21]

Michael Brewer, still an unknown- but his ball placement in his first game back was great.
Shai Mckenzie and Marshawn Williams will add great value to the run game.

[Urbanwildlife]

Ralphie. I would argue that Virginia Tech actually has some very good talent this year. Kendall Fuller, one of the top corners in the country and Brandon Fasycon, both great corners. Luther Maddy, great DT. Isaiah Ford, will be an impact freshmen at WR, Having Ryan Malleck back at TE and Bucky Hodges, will be able to create some mismatches. Although Beamer may be on his decline, still the winning active coach. Virginia Tech is in good hands with Bud Fosters Defensive able to dial in. With the recent loss of Braxton Miller, I think the playing field got very close to even. This will be a very large game for the Hokies on the road, as it will be the largest crowd they have ever played in front of, in history of the program(Until 2016,Battle at Bristol vs Tennessee). I'm not saying that the Hokies are going to go to Columbus and come out with a W, but im not saying were not going to. I think -12 they will cover, and I do they they can get the Win. Hokies Moneyline is a lean

Nice response.

[KVB]

You need to find teams that people actually perceive as being good to pull this off.

These are wise words. Often times it’s a residual perception about teams from the past year or years. Understanding the psychology of the betting marketplace can, as I always say, put you onto some winners, or at least take you off of some losers.
Good Luck guys.

[TPowell]

You need to find teams that people actually perceive as being good to pull this off.

If I had to pick one, it would be VTech. IMO, Beamer is approaching the end. Not great talent this year either.

that isn't true in the least. If a team is overvalued, they could be #1 in power ratings or they could be #128

[DerekMadden]

that isn't true in the least. If a team is overvalued, they could be #1 in power ratings or they could be #128

This exactly, a couple years ago I had Akron as an auto-fade team and won like 80%. The point isn't whether the team is normally good or not

[KVB]

Perception is everything. With few exceptions, it’s perception that drives the value; whether you are a casual fan or a hardcore number crunching stats guy. A widely known set of power rankings may influence public perception, but it’s only one piece of the pie.

Oddsmakers and bookmakers can be outright wrong, and bookmakers can shade their lines or take positions; but in general, if you feel a team is overvalued know that it is because the public perceives that team to be better in a particular matchup than you perceive them to be.That team is perceived as a better team, no matter where they are ranked on someone’s power ratings.

That residual perception I mentioned earlier can last for many weeks before the marketplace catches up. There is opportunity every year with this.

I understand what you are saying; bad teams (even publicly) can be overvalued. But was the team perceived as better than they are, or did the public misjudge the opponent? Both are possible.

If you are using some sort of publicized power rankings to gauge public opinion or create your own point spread or moneyline be very careful, it’s valuable but it’s not the whole story. You might think about creating your own power rankings; in both cases it would be likely make a more valid line.

We are betting against other bettors in the marketplace. The perception of those bettors and the marketplace itself are what matters. Any team and any game can be mispriced.

Of course, I suppose if you are going to automatically bet against a team each week, value and pricing have little meaning.

Look at SMU. The perception may be that SMU is bad, and they probably are, but the value of the line each week should guide your bet, taking you off of some losers, and hopefully adding some winners.

Good Luck

[crackerjack]

Air Force. Starting with Wyoming this week

[Ralphie Halves]

that isn't true in the least. If a team is overvalued, they could be #1 in power ratings or they could be #128

I think it's more true than picking on a patsy to always not cover. From the book's standpoint, they at least know that the public will be more apt to jump on a tasty line from a well-known team (2013 Florida) than the people who have found a doormat that keeps getting blown out. IMO, books catch up to the latter first.

[hawg200]

VANDERBILT....They looked attrocious

[tokio]

Southern Miss. This is the absolute worst team year in and year out. UMass and Uconn are not far behind.

[DerekMadden]

SMU is GARBAGE.