[Mac4Lyfe]

Welcome back to another season of football. Time really does fly. Here's hoping everyone has a very profitable betting season.

That said, I'll use this thread to track my picks. If I'm hot we'll keep rolling in the dough, if I suck monkey nuts, it'll be time to stop betting. My first rule of gambling... "If it doesn't make you money - STOP DOING IT"

Like I do every year. I post my early leans for the week, then lock them in as the week goes by. I just post plays and track wins/losses/ties. I don't spend time calculating units. I'll have regular plays and bold plays (that I think have a higher probability of hitting). I almost never use ML faves as plays but will use ML dogs when I feel good about them. Most of my lines are from Heritage, at the time I lock them in.

That said,



Texas A&M at South Carolina
Let me start off by saying that I'm here in Houston, I know a few players, plus my lil cuz is a starter at TAM and they have playmakers on both sides of the ball. The offensive line will be very strong, receivers can go up and get the ball and RB play that will punish teams. Sumlin knows how to dial up an offense. Most people question his defense but this is the year the defense will be much improved, especially at DL and LB's. Special teams should be solid from punting to place kicking to kick returner. The big question mark for everyone is Kenny Hill at QB. I think he's solid and much more prepared for the big stage than Dylan Thompson at USC.

USC has a solid offense, great RB in Davis, excellent receivers (watch out for Pharoh) and I love Shaq Roland. Their offensive line will be very good. But I am not real high on the QB. The defense should be good again this year but could drop off on the DL. I didn't like their LB play last year but should be better this year along with the secondary. Very good place kicker, exciting kick returner but very poor punter.

This game should be decided by the QB that makes the least mistakes. I don't trust Thompson. USC has been very good at home, which concerns me but TAM is known to start off strong/fast with trick plays on offense to start the season. I think TAM jumps on them early but USC finds their groove in the 2nd half. This game seems closer than the 10.5. I also don't see both QBs lighting it up which screams the under 61. Close game that USC might pull away in the 4th.

1 Texas A&M 8/28/2014 3:00PM - (PST) Spread +6 -105 for 1st Half
2 Texas A&M 8/28/2014 3:00PM - (PST) Spread +10½ -108 for Game
3 Texas A&M/South Carolina 8/28/2014 3:00PM - (PST) Total Points UNDER 61 -108 for Game

I'll sprinkle a bit on the +345 ML as well.

3 plays, 1 bolded.

[Urbanwildlife]

My sentiments are the same as yours. If you are not taking Texas A&M it should be a no play. A month ago when I was looking at this game, I was on South Carolina, but with the injuries they have, and looking further at the Aggies I changed my way of thinking.

Love the O'jays!

[Mac4Lyfe]

What's up UW? Always great to see you. You're still living the life.

It really seems to be too many points to me. Especially against a TAM team that has a bunch of playmakers. I think both defenses will be very good but I'm really second guessing the Under. USC's secondary is a ? mark and I'm not sure TAM can stop the run. This could end up being a shootout. I'm hoping both teams try to establish the run, milk clock and keep it under. I'm already locked in but it probably should be a no play.

My sentiments are the same as yours. If you are not taking Texas A&M it should be a no play. A month ago when I was looking at this game, I was on South Carolina, but with the injuries they have, and looking further at the Aggies I changed my way of thinking.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Tulane at Tulsa
Hmmm, is the wrong team favored? Tulane won a few games they should have lost last year and Tulsa lost a few games they could have won. Tulsa and Tulane's offenses were both dreadful last season. The only good thing is that both don't return many of the dead weight. I like Tulsa's QB a bit more which is why I like them in the game. Tulsa's defense should be stout but not a lot of depth that could be a concern in the 2nd half. Tulsa should have the edge on special teams but hopefully it won't be a factor. This game looks like another Under game but both teams have ball hawk defenses and offenses that like to cough up the ball which could mean short fields. 6.5 points looks like a gift on 2 fairly equal teams even on the road.

Locked and loaded...

4 Tulane 8/28/2014 5:00PM - (PST) Spread +6½ -108 for Game

Sprinkle a bit on the ML for shits and giggles.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Boise State at Ole Miss
Yes, I said at Ole Miss. The Ga Dome will become MissLanta as thousands of Rebel fans will pack Atlanta. I hate high spreads especially against a known giant killer in Boise State but I feel good about this one. No long writeup here but Ole Miss will play faster and more physical in this one. BSU will give a good effort but OM depth will eventually wear them out on both sides of the ball. As long as OM can take care of the ball, this should be a smooth cover.

5 Mississippi 8/28/2014 5:00PM - (PST) Spread -6 -110 for 1st Half
6 Mississippi 8/28/2014 5:00PM - (PST) Spread -13 +104 for Game

2 bolded plays.

[Mac4Lyfe]

No write up...

7 Temple +13 at Vandy. Sprinkle +405 ML for fun.



Here are additional leans. I haven't locked and loaded these yet and need to do more research but games that stand out.


UL -3 vs Miami
UL/Miami over 54 Petrino loves to score and not play much defense even with Charlie Strong's defensive players

North Texas +25 at Texas - UNT is respectable and Texas has question marks on Oline and QB Ash.

FSU +17.5 vs Okie State - OSU is reloading while FSU is loaded

Idaho +36 at Florida - When is the last time UF scored 36 points?

Ohio State -16.5 vs Navy - OSU might be better without Braxton who I thought was way overrated.

Michigan -34 vs App State - This has got to be a revenge game even though it's different players/coaches. Michigan will be much improved and App State is a mess. This game spells a big blowout, although I'll put a nickel on an app state ML if I can find one.

[Urbanwildlife]

My friend, the game between Idaho and Florida, you should be asking yourself not when the last time Florida scored 36 points, but when was the last time Idaho stopped anyone.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/i...l-schedule.php

[Cdub888]

love the picks !

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yeah Idaho really sucks but UF has had problems scoring the last 4 years against poor competition. New system, new coordinator but the same players. UF wil have to show me and until they do I have to auto fade them.

My friend, the game between Idaho and Florida, you should be asking yourself not when the last time Florida scored 36 points, but when was the last time Idaho stopped anyone.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/i...l-schedule.php

[alamo]

Good luck on the season Mac. Always love the in game comments from you. Have a good season buddy.

[RavensFan2k3]

My friend, the game between Idaho and Florida, you should be asking yourself not when the last time Florida scored 36 points, but when was the last time Idaho stopped anyone.

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-13/i...l-schedule.php

Not worth a play IMO

Goodluck Mac, always look foward to your plays

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Always love to see your pics, Mac! GL tonight!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Damn it's good seeing you guys... I got a tear in my eye.

Good luck on the season Mac. Always love the in game comments from you.Have a good season buddy.

Not worth a play IMO

Goodluck Mac, always look foward to your plays

Always love to see your pics, Mac! GL tonight!

[RavensFan2k3]

Damn it's good seeing you guys... I got a tear in my eye.

The ole crew is back together haha. It's like between January and August we're lost souls lmao

[Mac4Lyfe]

Very nice start for the Aggies. My lil cousin already doing work. I have a feeling this game goes over. I should have cancelled the Under (I might live bet out of it if I can). TAM defense should surprise as well. Let's see.

[Mac4Lyfe]

What a horse shit penalty for PI right there. Fukking refs been watching the NFL too much. He did bump him but he was playing the ball while the receiver never even turned around.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Yeah Idaho really sucks but UF has had problems scoring the last 4 years against poor competition. New system, new coordinator but the same players. UF wil have to show me and until they do I have to auto fade them.

hey welcome back... i like your picks. thank you.............. idaho has loaded up on jc players which is fairly new for them. or at least they've taken it way way up on # of JC recruits. so could be big improvement from past seasons.

gonna look at that tulsa pick.... tulsa was good play for so long. and had trouble recently but shouldn't be much to get back towards where they used to be... no real insight on tulane except that they finally did well last year.

temple vs. vandy looks nice too...... vandy i think will regress towards its long term mean the next few years. temple has much better talent that it did years ago.

my inclination is take SC vs. TAM but i haven't really looked at it... and of course the game has already started

[gojetsgomoxies]

my comment was confused on the tulsa/tulane............. generally like tulsa though.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I reread my tulsa/tulane quotes and I meant to say that I like Tulane's QB and defense a bit more than Tulsa. Too many damn T's, gets real confusing.

my comment was confused on the tulsa/tulane............. generally like tulsa though.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Wow, I need to live bet my way out of the Under. Both teams are moving the ball very well.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I reread my tulsa/tulane quotes and I meant to say that I like Tulane's QB and defense a bit more than Tulsa. Too many damn T's, gets real confusing.

i remember tulsa-tulane 24-0 after about 5 minutes a few years ago..... i think tulane was perennial phil steele improvement team. should be a good team being in new orleans but doesn't seem to work that way.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Tulane is in one of the most fertile football grounds in the country. They should be good just picking off the carcasses of the bigger schools in the area. From Houston to New Orleans, there's more guys in the NFL in that stretch than any other area in the US.

[Tommy Karate]

GL Mac

[Mac4Lyfe]

Holy shit. Where can I find a Kenny Hill for Heisman prop? This kid will have 300 yards in the 1st half. Sumlin sure knows how to coach QBs. Wow.

[wguan2]

Mac, big tip from nola here. Tulane is playing their first game in their own stadium in a long time today. The emotions are HUGE over here tonight so the crowd+team emotion may play a huge factor. I personally like Tulane here a LOT.

EDIT: My mistake. Home opener is next week. There was so much talk from everyone about it that I thought it was tonight.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Yeah if it was at home I would be hammering this one. I still like Tulane but you can never be sure with the game in Oklahoma.

Mac, big tip from nola here. Tulane is playing their first game in their own stadium in a long time today. The emotions are HUGE over here tonight so the crowd+team emotion may play a huge factor. I personally like Tulane here a LOT.

EDIT: My mistake. Home opener is next week. There was so much talk from everyone about it that I thought it was tonight.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Line down to 9.5. Let's go Owls (whoo di whoo)

No write up...

7 Temple +13 at Vandy. Sprinkle +405 ML for fun.

[Mac4Lyfe]

OMG - Tulane was up by 8 with 3 minutes to go and give up a 4th down and the 2 point conversion. The Tulsa receiver was out of bounds on the 2 pt conversion and the refs give it to them anyway. Unfukkingreal, this game should be over, now it's tied, which the line could be killed in OT. Fukkk

[Hawaii]

Mac I love playing your underdog ML...you have great insight and I love your angles. Been following when you hit that +15000 Houston.

I parlayed the texas am, tulane, and temple in a ML parlay and sent it to my bro in vegas. Of course I sent a text to my brother yesterday and he doesn't put it in until the games are in session today. Just my luck! Looks like they have a good chance of hitting!

Do you ever parlay them or just ML straight up? Looking forward to the upcoming huge underdogs. You da man!!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Good to see you back Hawaii. Let's get it this season.

Woohoo - Tulane with a huge run. 1st and goal. Do they punch it in here or run clock and try a last FG kick. I say score now. Screw it. Tulsa taking timeouts anyway.

Mac I love playing your underdog ML...you have great insight and I love your angles. Been following when you hit that +15000 Houston.

I parlayed the texas am, tulane, and temple in a ML parlay and sent it to my bro in vegas. Of course I sent a text to my brother yesterday and he doesn't put it in until the games are in session today. Just my luck! Looks like they have a good chance of hitting!

Do you ever parlay them or just ML straight up? Looking forward to the upcoming huge underdogs. You da man!!

[Urbanwildlife]

Let me know when your Las Vegas dates are secure, and we can work something out to meet there or at the Atlantis. Thanks!

[Mac4Lyfe]

Huge 3rd down and goal here. I'd try a QB draw here...

[Mac4Lyfe]

For sure UW... I probably won't know anything for another 2 weeks.

Let me know when your Las Vegas dates are secure, and we can work something out to meet there or at the Atlantis. Thanks!

Dam, I called the QB draw but they were ready for it. Come on make this kick.

[Mac4Lyfe]

OMG - he wasn't even close on that FG. Way wide left. WTF???

[Mac4Lyfe]

How the hell do you miss a 19 yard FG attempt with the ball dam near in the middle of the field?? I don't understand that shit. Now Tulsa is driving. Shit.