[ronpaul2o12]

Okay, let me start by saying I am highly skeptical and it's by pure chance I tried this 'system' I still don't believe it will work long term but I can't quite understand why not.

Here is the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N5-Lu4Jrc8

I just used the method and in 16 minutes I made $76. Obviously luck played into my run as the max bet I had to do in that period was $9.

Of course sometimes you are going to lose but if you have a limit in place($114 suggested in the video) and restart again it seems possible to make money a lot of the time.

Again, I am skeptical and I'm sure people have seen this before...I'm just seeking the explanation as to why it won't work long term as I'm hopeless with math and can't work it out.

[ljump12]

You're right to be skeptical about any system , but I understand the desire to find one that works.

The main problem with his explanation is assuming "conditional probability", where there is none. He says that after you've lost the first 5 bets, there's only a 10% chance that you'll lose the sixth one. But that's not how it works. After you've lost your first 5 bets, there's more like a 66% chance that you'll lose your sixth one.

Let's take a concrete example with a coin...

Let's say we're always betting on heads. He would say after you flip a coin 3 times, and get tails each time there's a 87.5% chance that you'll get a heads on the 4th one. But that's not true, as you might be able to guess there's only a 50% chance you'll flip heads.

So why does he say 87.5%? Well there's an 87.5% chance each time that you start a new wager at the first level that you'll be a winner on one of the 4 tosses. After you toss one wrong, there's only a 75% chance that you'll be a winner on the next two tosses. If you toss the next one wrong, there'll only be a 50% chance that you get the final one right.

So when he says there's a 10.5% chance that you'll lose all your money on the 6th one, what that really means is that, every time you start from level one, there's a 10.5% chance you'll hit your stoploss. You will win 90% of the time (but you'll only win $6). And 10% of the time you'll lose $114.

I hope that makes some sense!