1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira (November 19, 2016)



    Fox Sports 1, 9 p.m. ET
    Ryan bader vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
    Thomas Almeida vs Albert Morales
    Cortney Casey vs Claudia Gadelha
    Krzysztof Jotko vs Thales Leites
    Warlley Alves vs Kamaru Usman
    Sergio Maraes vs Zak Ottow

    Fox Sports 1, 7 p.m. ET
    Cezar Ferreira vs Jack Hermansson
    Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Marcos rogerio de Lima
    Johnny Eduardo vs Manny Gamburyan
    Christian Colombo vs Luis Henrique

    UFC Fight Pass, 6:00 p.m. ET

    Pedro Munhoz vs Justin Scoggins
    Francimar Barroso vs Darren Stewart




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  2. #2
    JIBBBY
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    Kinda liking all the favorites on this card at a quick look over unfortunately...

    No dogs are sticking out.. Maybe some of you guys will see something I am not... Bader, Almeida, Leites, Usman all should win IMO and even after capping in depth I doubt I'm gonna change my mind on any of those.. How they will win will be the question that needs answering..

    Get back in a few days with this event..

  3. #3
    PaperTrail07
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  4. #4
    PaperTrail07
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    Jotko a hue dog VS the barn cat now a close line w Lietes....hmmmm

  5. #5
    PaperTrail07
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    Usman seems $$$

  6. #6
    TheCaliforniaKid
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  7. #7
    TheCaliforniaKid
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    So am I reading that right? Claudia is at plus 350? BEEP BEEP...Time to back up the Brinks Truck!!

  8. #8
    UncleChael
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    Two events in one day. I might not make it to the main event of this one boys...

  9. #9
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    ^ 3 events, Bellator Chandler V Henderson also on the 19th...

  10. #10
    Unwritten Law
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    Bader should make quick work of Nog.

  11. #11
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCaliforniaKid View Post
    So am I reading that right? Claudia is at plus 350? BEEP BEEP...Time to back up the Brinks Truck!!
    Looks like a typo. She's (-450) on 5Ds

  12. #12
    JIBBBY
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    MMA MANIA preview - Part 1



    Coming up.....
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-15-16 at 12:04 PM.

  13. #13
    PaperTrail07
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    Going to be a great Saturday fellas

  14. #14
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Going to be a great Saturday fellas
    Over load of MMA on one night.. Wish they spread it out.. Poor planning if you ask me...

    Will be switching channels and all over the place.. DVR might over heat too ...

  15. #15
    richie360
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Over load of MMA on one night.. Wish they spread it out.. Poor planning if you ask me...

    Will be switching channels and all over the place.. DVR might over heat too ...
    Also Kovalev Vs Ward in boxing. Going to have bets all over the place!!
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  16. #16
    PaperTrail07
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    The times are fine JIBBERS---one UFC is early....diff locations obv...in Belfast..
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Over load of MMA on one night.. Wish they spread it out.. Poor planning if you ask me...

    Will be switching channels and all over the place.. DVR might over heat too ...

  17. #17
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    The times are fine JIBBERS---one UFC is early....diff locations obv...in Belfast..
    Yep I also noticed one card starts earlier then the next.. Bellator over laps if I'm not mistaken though with the later UFC event..

    Either way it will be a FULL day of MMA this Saturday!!

    Buckle up!!!
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  18. #18
    PaperTrail07
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    Oh bellator does.....but they should have scheduled Friday.....MVP and hend/chandler are the only ones I'll tune in for -most likely..
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Yep I also noticed one card starts earlier then the next.. Bellator over laps if I'm not mistaken though with the later UFC event..

    Either way it will be a FULL day of MMA this Saturday!!

    Buckle up!!!

  19. #19
    JIBBBY
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    MMA mania preview and predicitons -




    185 lbs.: Cezar Ferreira (10-5) vs. Jack Hermansson (14-2)
    "Mutante" won the inaugural Ultimate Fighter: Brazil and proceeded to win his first three UFC bouts, including one over former show finalist Daniel Sarafian. A 1-3 stretch, all losses by first-round knockout, put his back against the wall, but he came back with wins over Oluwale Bamgbose and Anthony Smith. He has three wins by knockout and two by submission.
    Sweden’s Hermansson washed out of Bellator with two losses and two appearances, but went on to win eight straight and punch his ticket to the UFC. He debuted in September, defeating former BAMMA champion Scott Askham in Germany. Eight of his wins have come by knockout.
    There are basically two "Mutantes:" one is the wild striking powerhouse whose ability to inflict punishment is badly outstripped by his inability to take it, while the other is the mediocre grinder he turns into, Jekyll-and-Hyde-style, when faced with adversity. Neither is well-equipped to take out Hermansson.
    Hermansson is the stronger, more durable, and more skilled striker on top of having the takedown defense to keep it standing. He should dispose of Ferreira early and with considerable authority.
    Prediction: Hermansson by first-round knockout
    205 lbs.: Gadzhimurad Antigulov (18-4) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (14-3-1)
    Russia’s Antigulov jumped right into the deep end of the eastern European scene, facing Adlan Amagov in his debut and taking on the likes of Abdul-Kerim Edilov and Viktor Nemkov within his first ten fights. He enters the UFC having won twelve straight, eleven by stoppage and ten in the first three minutes. Thirteen of his professional wins have come by submission.
    After an unsuccessful run on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3, "Pezao" opened his UFC career with two knockouts in a combined 2:19 before running into Nikita Krylov. He last entered the cage in March, dominating and choking out Clint Hester at UFC 197. He’s scored ten professional wins by knockout and another three by submission.
    There’s a lot to consider here. de Lima hits as hard as any light heavyweight aside from "Rumble" and will have a significant weight advantage over Antigulov, who regularly weighs in below 205 and has fought at middleweight before, but the style matchup isn’t in his favor. Antigulov is a suffocating, ridiculously-aggressive wrestler who should be able to drag the Brazilian out of his comfort zone.
    The key to this analysis may be the fact that de Lima didn’t react well to Krylov’s pressure. Antigulov is a better technical wrestler than the rising Ukrainian and every bit as capable of ruining "Pezao’s" day once it hits the mat. I say Antigulov earns the win in hostile territory, bulldozing the big Brazilian to the mat and ultimately locking up an early submission.
    Prediction: Antigulov by first-round submission
    135 lbs.: Manny Gamburyan (15-9) vs. Johnny Eduardo (27-10)
    Following a three-fight losing streak from 2010 to 2011, "The Anvil" went 4-1, 1 NC in his next six, including a decision over fellow Ultimate Fighter 5 veteran Cole Miller. He last fought in April, falling to John Dodson in forty-seven seconds at UFC on Fox 19. He’s submitted seven opponents as a pro, though just one since 2008.
    Eduardo shocked fight fans in 2014 when, after nearly two full years out of the cage, he knocked former title challenger Eddie Wineland cold in one of the year’s biggest upsets. A nineteen-month layoff followed, after which he suffered a submission loss to Aljamain Sterling for just his second defeat since 2007. He is two inches taller than Gamburyan at 5’7".
    He may have made some slight improvements, but Gamburyan is more or less the same fighter Jose Aldo thrashed in 2010, a decent brawler and takedown artist with an iffy chin. Eduardo may be injury-prone to such an extent that I’m convinced he pissed off the same witch doctor Antonio Silva used against Fedor, but he’s an incredibly skilled striker whose camp is legendary for its takedown defense.
    Gamburyan’s only real path to victory is to pursue the takedown early and often, a strategy I doubt he can pull off without getting clobbered. Eduardo sprawls-and-brawls his way to a stoppage win.
    Prediction: Eduardo by first-round TKO
    265 lbs.: Christian Colombo (8-1-1) vs. Luis Henrique (9-2)
    Denmark’s Colombo brought kickboxing experience and a six-fight winning streak into his UFC debut, which pitted him against Syria’s Jarjis Danho. Due to losing a point from an illegal knee, Colombo had to settle for a majority draw in his first slip-up since losing to Viktor Pesta in 2012. Six of his eight wins have come by knockout.
    Henrique, twenty-three, stepped into the heavyweight division for the first time since 2012 in his UFC debut, which saw him get sparked by one vicious uppercut from Francis Ngannou. Undaunted, he proceeded to dominate Russian newcomer Dmitry Smolyakov in Illinois seven months later. He will give up three inches of height to the 6’5" "Godzilla."
    Henrique may be fighting well above his ideal weight, but he has remarkably good cardio for a man of his build and his wrestling ought to be more than enough to drag the big Dane south. If Colombo couldn’t shut down Jarjis Danho without emptying his gas tank, he’s not going to have any luck doing so against someone with legitimate grappling skill.
    Colombo’s more than a decade older than his opponent and has doesn’t have much to offer here besides his height and body attack. Henrique grinds his cardio away before locking up the submission.
    Prediction: Henrique by second-round submission
    135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz (13-2) vs. Justin Scoggins (11-2)
    "The Young Punisher" roared back from his UF debut loss to Raphael Assuncao with consecutive first-round stoppages of Matt Hobar and Jerrod Sanders. A failed drug test and a loss to Jimmie Rivera followed, after which he dispatched Russell Doane with his signature guillotine. He has submitted eight opponents and knocked out another two.
    "Tank" rumbled through Richie Vas and Will Campuzano in his first two UFC appearances, then suffered upset losses to Dustin Ortiz and John Moraga in subsequent fights. He came back with wins over Josh Sampo and Ray Borg, but bungled his weight cut against Ian McCall for his third canceled fight in his previous four bookings. This will be his UFC bantamweight debut.
    Among the flyweight division’s many young guns, I had Scoggins pegged as the best of the bunch. He may not reach quite the same heights as a bantamweight, but he’s still bewilderingly well-rounded, elite striking backed by an excellent wrestling game.
    Munhoz is pretty damn talented himself, but the stylistic matchup isn’t in his favor. His heavy swings aren’t a good match for Scoggins’ range control and his submission edge doesn’t make much difference when he doesn’t have the necessary takedown prowess to take "Tank" down.
    So long as he stays healthy and doesn’t barrel directly into a guillotine again, Scoggins has what it takes to own this battle of prospects. He makes a triumphant entrance to the division with a decisive decision victory.
    Prediction: Scoggins by unanimous decision
    205 lbs.: Francimar Barroso (18-5) vs. Darren Stewart (7-0)
    "Bodao," the biggest representative of Nova Uniao yet seen in the UFC, opened his UFC career 3-1 with the only loss a split decision. This set up a fight with rising prospect Nikita Krylov, who handed Barroso the first submission loss of his career. He was last booked to face C.B. Dollaway at UFC 203 before the latter lost a fight with an elevator.
    Known as "The Dentist," Stewart has given his namesakes quite a bit of work with five knockouts in seven fights. In addition to earning and defending the Killacam light heavyweight title, he went 4-0 with four knockouts under the Cage Warriors banner. He went 5-0 as an amateur before turning pro in June of 2014.
    Stewart is not ready for this. He’s strong, game, and packs some scary ground-and-pound, but he’s extremely raw and I’m not sure his cardio’s there. Just last December, he got badly touched up by a 1-1 fighter and only survived thanks to his opponent’s nonexistent wrestling. Further, he’s only 5’10" and regularly weighs in between 202 and 203 pounds.
    Barroso’s a good enough wrestler to keep it standing and a good enough striker to keep Stewart at bay until his gas tank gives out. Stewart’s lack of striking polish and questionable defense bite him hard as Barroso pounds him out late.
    Prediction: Barroso by third-round TKO

  20. #20
    Rich Benjamins
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    What about Jotko? I think he could KO Leites.

  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    What about Jotko? I think he could KO Leites.
    I think he could decision Leites but I'd be really surprised if he KO's him.

  22. #22
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    What about Jotko? I think he could KO Leites.
    Out of last 7 wins, 6 by decision. He can KO leites, but how likely is it? Very difficult match to bet on. Leites have the grappling advantage, im not so sure its possible to get up if your grounded by leites, he needs two takedowns more or less to win a fight, while Jotko needs to have space to win, for 10 minutes, you dont want to have that stuff hanging over you when betting. You want an advantage, not a disadvantage. Bad bet IMO.

  23. #23
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    What about Jotko? I think he could KO Leites.
    I'm liking the Leites by Sub and hedging with Jotko by decision myself.. I think this fight could go either way.. Had to hedge it...

    Remember Leites has 15 sub finishes in his 26 wins.. He's also lost 5 fights by decision.. Leites has never KO'd so I don't see Jotko being the first to drop Leites either.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thales-Leites-8593

    $100.00 $250.00 Pending 11/19/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3331 Leites wins by submission +250* vs Any other result


    Jotko on the flip - 11 of his 18 wins have come by way of decision and his only loss has come by way of submission - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Krzysztof-Jotko-53380

    $100.00 $275.00 Pending 11/19/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3307 Jotko wins by 3 round decision +275* vs Not Jotko by 3 round decision

    Needless to say Lietes has fought very stiff competition thru the years in the UFC..

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-16-16 at 05:18 PM.

  24. #24
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Out of last 7 wins, 6 by decision. He can KO leites, but how likely is it? Very difficult match to bet on. Leites have the grappling advantage, im not so sure its possible to get up if your grounded by leites, he needs two takedowns more or less to win a fight, while Jotko needs to have space to win, for 10 minutes, you dont want to have that stuff hanging over you when betting. You want an advantage, not a disadvantage. Bad bet IMO.
    Jotko's TDD % is excellent but he hasn't faced a lot of solid wrestlers. Then again, Leites isn't exactly a TD artist. I think this is a good test to see where Jotko is.

  25. #25
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm liking the Leites by Sub win myself and hedging with Jotko by decision myself.. I think this fight could go either way.. Had to hedge it...

    Remember Leites has 15 sub finishes in his 26 wins.. He's also lost 5 fights by decision.. Leites has never KO'd so I don't see Jotko being the first to drop Leites either.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Thales-Leites-8593

    $100.00 $250.00 Pending 11/19/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3331 Leites wins by submission +250* vs Any other result


    Jotko on the flip - 11 of his 18 wins have come by way of decision and his only loss has come by way of submission - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Krzysztof-Jotko-53380

    $100.00 $275.00 Pending 11/19/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3307 Jotko wins by 3 round decision +275* vs Not Jotko by 3 round decision

    Needless to say Lietes has fought very stiff competition thru the years in the UFC..

    I like it.

  26. #26
    Hugo de Naranja
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    I went ahead and hedged with Leites ITD (+241) because he does occasionally get KO's and the value is about the same

  27. #27
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I went ahead and hedged with Leites ITD (+241) because he does occasionally get KO's and the value is about the same
    Smart.. I forgot to check the ITD odds.. I figured it would be alot higher.. My bad.. I may go ahead and put another $50 on that ITD prop as I do think Leites probably wins this fight..

  28. #28
    JIBBBY
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    Just hit it.. Why not.. If Jotko still wins by decision I still walk away with $125.00 instead of $175.00..


    $50.00 $120.50 Pending 11/19/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3309 Leites wins inside distance +241* vs Not Leites inside distance
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  29. #29
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Jotko's TDD % is excellent but he hasn't faced a lot of solid wrestlers. Then again, Leites isn't exactly a TD artist. I think this is a good test to see where Jotko is.
    Fight may go to dec where both fighters can win, or a sub by leites, or a small chance of jotko KO, but thats small i believe, all in all very hard fight to bet on for my liking.

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    ^^Tim Boetsch has excellent wrestling and take down defense and he got choked out by Leites.. Hense the gif I posted above..

    Remember when fighters are controlled and grinded the back can be taken or trip take down can occur.. A good strike to the head can get a fighter down as well... Leites is capable of taking the back standing or landing something big standing to get the fight to the ground....

    A take down is not always dictated by a double or single. Trip take downs against the cage or just taking the back standing can some times get a fighter the sub win..

    Just saying as I know you fellas know this...

  31. #31
    PaperTrail07
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    Fight goes to decision IMO....Jotko will be smart and stay away as much as possible...

  32. #32
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Fight goes to decision IMO....Jotko will be smart and stay away as much as possible...
    3303 Jotko / Leites goes 3 round distance
    -145

  33. #33
    PaperTrail07
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    I Like.....Leites will earn the respect and it will be a timid match IMO,....
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    3303 Jotko / Leites goes 3 round distance
    -145

  34. #34
    PaperTrail07
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    True---but he is also very slow and predictable....
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    ^^Tim Boetsch has excellent wrestling and take down defense and he got choked out by Leites.. Hense the gif I posted above..

    Remember when fighters are controlled and grinded the back can be taken or trip take down can occur.. A good strike to the head can get a fighter down as well... Leites is capable of taking the back standing or landing something big standing to get the fight to the ground....

    A take down is not always dictated by a double or single. Trip take downs against the cage or just taking the back standing can some times get a fighter the sub win..

    Just saying as I know you fellas know this...

  35. #35
    JIBBBY
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    Alot of these fights on the main cards in both events I find are a bit tricky to prop bet.. I'm still working them.. I don't think I'm gonna load up this go around on any of the main fights in either event..

    I'm gonna focus a bit more on the under card fights myself as I think there are some better bets to be had in those fights on actually both cards....

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