[bjpenn85]

Anyone have thoughts on Latifi vs. Bader?

Easy win for Bader if he doesnt get KOed. Does Latifi have any advantages? Bad cardio, bad shot selection, bad movement, bad variety of strikes. I was on Latifi big last outing, im not hating but. Latifi isnt any good. Only relying on wrestling and overhand right.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Easy win for Bader if he doesnt get KOed. Does Latifi have any advantages? Bad cardio, bad shot selection, bad movement, bad variety of strikes. I was on Latifi big last outing, im not hating but. Latifi isnt any good. Only relying on wrestling and overhand right.

Latifi sort of seems like a less good Yoel Romero. That said he hits hard, has a surprisingly decent sub game and Bader has been stopped in all his career losses (5 times). Considering a play on Latifi ITD (+371).

[Demonata]

I have to cheer for my swede latifi. Power pf the swedes, knock out bader.

[Thrilla]

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

McGregor already the fav in future fights...

[Hugo de Naranja]

McGregor already the fav in future fights...

Not too surprising to see him as a favorite against Aldo and Nate since he has shown he can beat them. I think Alvarez is a terrible style matchup for McGregor though. I'd probably bet Alvarez there and hedge with McGregor R1/R2 especially since Alvarez would be above (+200) at some point in the build-up for sure.

[firekillex]

Not too surprising to see him as a favorite against Aldo and Nate since he has shown he can beat them. I think Alvarez is a terrible style matchup for McGregor though. I'd probably bet Alvarez there and hedge with McGregor R1/R2 especially since Alvarez would be above (+200) at some point in the build-up for sure.

alvarez a bad matchup for conor would probably have to go eddie if he gets at +200 tbh

[Hugo de Naranja]

alvarez a bad matchup for conor would probably have to go eddie if he gets at +200 tbh

Who do you want to see Conor fight next fire? I hope he gets put on the NYC card since I'll be going and he's always fun to watch.

[firekillex]

Who do you want to see Conor fight next fire? I hope he gets put on the NYC card since I'll be going and he's always fun to watch.

im not sure if hell make the NYC card with his leg injury he needs to be cleared after seeing a doctor, only way i see him fighting on that card is if its 155lbs i dont see him having time to heal plus cut all that weight so basically the only fight would be him vs eddy for the strap, i dont see them giving him a contender or something at 55 its belt or nothing ... For me thats the most likely outcome which sucks for khabib who would absolutely be mcgregors kryptonite most likely i dont see that matchup going well for conor if we can even win the eddie fight which would be super super tough... eddie knows he would have to wrestle to win that fight and has even said so in interviews plus hes tough as nails and has very high level boxing which could contend with mcgregor on the feet, he has been known to get clipped in a ton of his fights and if mcgregor hurts him it could be over ( mcgregor wont let him stand back up like diaz since hes not a threat on his back )

other options would be the diaz trilogy which dana has shutdown completely for now, the jose aldo rematch which a lot of people are saying they dont want to see... i think this is a super super dangerous fight for conor to aldo would most likely come out much different in this fight and its almost a 50/50 fight imo again a lot of people are really sleeping on aldo dudes a legit legend and got caught rushing in which rarely ever happens. Mcgregor has only tough fights anywhere he goes so if i was him try to get another strap if youre gonna be tested regardless 155 with eddie is the call for me in possibly NYC for another huge payday and card

praying he doesnt fight mayweather in boxing or amir khan in mma as well

[firekillex]

btw ryan bader +180 decision prop vs latifi i like.... 10 decision wins outta 20 fights like 6 outta last 7 wins by decision and hes going to want to wrestle with the hard hitting latifi.. latifi has been known to gas so the 3rd round could be sketchy for a finish but in a 3 rounder i think bader rides out a decision here i like the value to, thoughts?

not loving the next weekend card , may be on arlovski +120 as well over barnett thats all im seeing so far

[Hugo de Naranja]

im not sure if hell make the NYC card with his leg injury he needs to be cleared after seeing a doctor, only way i see him fighting on that card is if its 155lbs i dont see him having time to heal plus cut all that weight so basically the only fight would be him vs eddy for the strap, i dont see them giving him a contender or something at 55 its belt or nothing ... For me thats the most likely outcome which sucks for khabib who would absolutely be mcgregors kryptonite most likely i dont see that matchup going well for conor if we can even win the eddie fight which would be super super tough... eddie knows he would have to wrestle to win that fight and has even said so in interviews plus hes tough as nails and has very high level boxing which could contend with mcgregor on the feet, he has been known to get clipped in a ton of his fights and if mcgregor hurts him it could be over ( mcgregor wont let him stand back up like diaz since hes not a threat on his back )

other options would be the diaz trilogy which dana has shutdown completely for now, the jose aldo rematch which a lot of people are saying they dont want to see... i think this is a super super dangerous fight for conor to aldo would most likely come out much different in this fight and its almost a 50/50 fight imo again a lot of people are really sleeping on aldo dudes a legit legend and got caught rushing in which rarely ever happens. Mcgregor has only tough fights anywhere he goes so if i was him try to get another strap if youre gonna be tested regardless 155 with eddie is the call for me in possibly NYC for another huge payday and card

praying he doesnt fight mayweather in boxing or amir khan in mma as well

Who knows what will happen next haha. Doubt he fights Mayweather or Khan. I think it will be Aldo or Alvarez although I would like to see him more against Aldo in a fight lasting more than "tirteen seconds"

[Hugo de Naranja]

btw ryan bader +180 decision prop vs latifi i like.... 10 decision wins outta 20 fights like 6 outta last 7 wins by decision and hes going to want to wrestle with the hard hitting latifi.. latifi has been known to gas so the 3rd round could be sketchy for a finish but in a 3 rounder i think bader rides out a decision here i like the value to, thoughts?

not loving the next weekend card , may be on arlovski +120 as well over barnett thats all im seeing so far

I'm already on Latifi ITD and Bader Round 3 but a better way to play it might be:
Latifi Scorecards = No Action (+170)
Bader Decision (+179)
Bader Round 3 (+975)

I don't think Bader will get a finish in the first two rounds when Latifi is fresh and I don't think Latifi wins a decision too often in this spot.

[firekillex]

agreed i think itll most likely be alvarez a lot of the stuff im seeing coming out it doesnt look like mcgregor wants the aldo match which i think would be a war ... but him vs alvarez would be wild as well any of these fights you cant really lose as a fan

I'm already on Latifi ITD and Bader Round 3 but a better way to play it might be:
Latifi Scorecards = No Action (+170)
Bader Decision (+179)
Bader Round 3 (+975)

I don't think Bader will get a finish in the first two rounds when Latifi is fresh and I don't think Latifi wins a decision too often in this spot.

agreed its either latifi finish or bader decision or finish late when latifi is gassed

[Hugo de Naranja]

Some pretty good fights announced for UFC 204, including:
Tumenov vs. Edwards
Font vs. Entwistle
Bektic vs. Allen

[Hugo de Naranja]

Odds for Hamburg card just dropped. None of the lines seem ridiculous but I still have some research to do.

[firekillex]

Odds for Hamburg card just dropped. None of the lines seem ridiculous but I still have some research to do.

need to dive into some fight tape for this card a lot of lower level fighters here....
gus at -600 is unplayable , tough call on the props im leaning decision for a 3 rounder but he could get the finish here
bader by decision possibly
rustam khabilov decision prop when it comes out possibly


what are you liking hugo?

also really torn on the main event , was leaning arlovski for a while ( hes never been subbed in his career ) 5 rounder i give him the movement and cardio edge ... maybe could find a tko/ko or ride a decision out hmm

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here are my results since I started posting all my plays.

All UFC Results:
UFC Fight Night Maia vs. Condit = +14.1675u
UFC 202 McGregor vs.Diaz = +4.415u
UFC Fight Night Rodriguez vs. Caceres = +5.2775u
UFC 201 Lawler vs. Woodley = +8.85u
UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Shevchenko = +4.645u
Total UFC Profit/Loss: +37.355u

Bellator Results:
Bellator 160 = -1u
Total Bellator Profit/Loss = -1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

need to dive into some fight tape for this card a lot of lower level fighters here....
gus at -600 is unplayable , tough call on the props im leaning decision for a 3 rounder but he could get the finish here
bader by decision possibly
rustam khabilov decision prop when it comes out possibly


what are you liking hugo?

also really torn on the main event , was leaning arlovski for a while ( hes never been subbed in his career) 5 rounder i give him the movement and cardio edge ... maybe could find a tko/ko or ride a decision out hmm

Don't love anything yet. Like Khabilov at (-210) but he has steamed big to (-350) now. Askham (-125) and Latifi Props look appealing to me but I haven't had much time to look over this card tbh. I think your initial thoughts are good. Maybe Gustaffson -3.5? Although even that will probably be like (-350). I think I have a .5u on Barnett KO/TKO (+335) from a little while back.

[firekillex]

Don't love anything yet. Like Khabilov at (-210) but he has steamed big to (-350) now. Askham (-125) and Latifi Props look appealing to me but I haven't had much time to look over this card tbh. I think your initial thoughts are good. Maybe Gustaffson -3.5? Although even that will probably be like (-350). I think I have a .5u on Barnett KO/TKO (+335) from a little while back.

looked around at some props this is what im leaning with so far lemme no what ya think...

bader decision +180
bader rd 3 +975
latifi rd 1 +650 hedge guy has massive power

arlovski tko+200 with straight up possibly ? need to look into this a bit more i like the value on arlovski though

khabilov i like a lot.. i think the decision prop will have value possibly if its at + money

i also like dalby at -105 i think he wins this fight

[Hugo de Naranja]

looked around at some props this is what im leaning with so far lemme no what ya think...

bader decision +180
bader rd 3 +975
latifi rd 1 +650 hedge guy has massive power

arlovski tko+200 with straight up possibly ? need to look into this a bit more i like the value on arlovski though

khabilov i like a lot.. i think the decision prop will have value possibly if its at + money

i also like dalby at -105 i think he wins this fight

Everything seems good. I'll probably play Dalby as well but I need to research his opponent. I like Latifi KO/TKO (+420) or ITD (+371) a bit more than Round 1 since he has crafty submissions and can hurt his opponents late. Wouldn't go huge on Arlovski since he's looked pretty meh, albeit against top HWs. I generally stay away from HW bouts anyway.

[Thrilla]

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-n...ortland#/fight

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fi...ker_vs._Dodson

[firekillex]

Everything seems good. I'll probably play Dalby as well but I need to research his opponent. I like Latifi KO/TKO (+420) or ITD (+371) a bit more than Round 1 since he has crafty submissions and can hurt his opponents late. Wouldn't go huge on Arlovski since he's looked pretty meh, albeit against top HWs. I generally stay away from HW bouts anyway.

Just some trends .. Latifi 8 finishes outta 9 were in the first round... Bader has never lost a decision before and he has only been finished in the 1-2 rounds... Hmm


and for heavyweights that's true I tend to lean with underdogs when the fights close this is 50/50 almost to me , arlovski has the boxing and power to ko anybody so there's some value imo


btw seeing dodson -105 vs lineker right now i really want to jump on this i think his movements wins him this fight but man lineker keeps burning me hes the flyweight rumble johnson with those hands

[firekillex]

super interesting breakdowns, dan hardy is a beast with this stuff really enjoyed this video for the insight you should check it out hugo

[Thor4140]

Who do you want to see Conor fight next fire? I hope he gets put on the NYC card since I'll be going and he's always fun to watch.

I hope he fights Eddie. I actually think Eddie could match Coners fan base if it is in NY.

[firekillex]

Kelvin gastelum vs Jorge masvidal just booked for tuf Latin America finale great fight I got kelvin in that one should be a war though

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kelvin gastelum vs Jorge masvidal just booked for tuf Latin America finale great fight I got kelvin in that one should be a war though

Yeah I'm pumped for that card. It could really be a sleeper. Will play Kelvin Straight at +money. I think the line probably drops Kelvin (-170) and Masvidal (+130) in which case I'll look to play props.

[Demonata]

A fight that is impossible to happen at Ufc 205. GSP's 4 Month USADA drug testing to make his return means him fighting at #UFC205 not possible. STOP the GSP vs McGregor UFC 205 rumors. So basically mcgregor either fights aldo or alvarez. I predict alvarez.

[bjpenn85]

Here are my results since I started posting all my plays.

All UFC Results:
UFC Fight Night Maia vs. Condit = +14.1675u
UFC 202 McGregor vs.Diaz = +4.415u
UFC Fight Night Rodriguez vs. Caceres = +5.2775u
UFC 201 Lawler vs. Woodley = +8.85u
UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Shevchenko = +4.645u
Total UFC Profit/Loss: +37.355u

Bellator Results:
Bellator 160 = -1u
Total Bellator Profit/Loss = -1u

Very nice. Do you make a seperate thread for you picks so that its possible to keep up/ tail, communicate. It appears you sometimes post plays in the main thread, and in the prop pics thread, basically all around.

At the same time, with the amount of bets you make, its kind of hard to replicate/tail. Still, your style seems to work really well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Very nice. Do you make a seperate thread for you picks so that its possible to keep up/ tail, communicate. It appears you sometimes post plays in the main thread, and in the prop pics thread, basically all around.

At the same time, with the amount of bets you make, its kind of hard to replicate/tail. Still, your style seems to work really well.

No separate thread for me at the moment. I mostly post my stuff in the main thread for each event. Hopefully we can both keep the money trains rolling.

[bjpenn85]

No separate thread for me at the moment. I mostly post my stuff in the main thread for each event. Hopefully we can both keep the money trains rolling.

It would have been nice. Hopefully we do!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone have predictions for UFC 205 bouts? I heard a rumor about Lawler vs. Cowboy. That would be a sick fight.

[GoBlue77]

Latifi sort of seems like a less good Yoel Romero. That said he hits hard, has a surprisingly decent sub game and Bader has been stopped in all his career losses (5 times). Considering a play on Latifi ITD (+371).

dont do it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the suggestion Fire!

[Hugo de Naranja]

dont do it.

Too late haha.

[firekillex]

Anyone have predictions for UFC 205 bouts? I heard a rumor about Lawler vs. Cowboy. That would be a sick fight.

yup i think its done basically, heard rumblings of the fight rumor then donald was on JRE talking about how his next fight contract is almost done and it should be in MSG ... would be a crazy fight that i couldve never expected happening and another thing i wouldnt expect to happen is me thinking cowboy could win this fight because hes looking like a beast at 170 , im hoping hes at some juicy odds to take him since hes a 55er and lawler was just champion... praying this fight comes to fruition thought would be a dream fight