[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree that this probably doesn't go the distance but I personally think Ellenberger is shot. I'm planning to put 1u or so on Brown KO/TKO, and I'm thinking the odds will be around (+130).

Brown has never been KOed in 34 fights and has fought killers like Stephen Thompson, Robbie Lawler, and juiced Erick Silva so I don't think Ellenberger knocks him out. I'll probably put a small bet on Ellenberger Sub at (+750) or better since that was his last win and Brown has 10 submission losses.

Brown KO/TKO opened at (+130), Ellenberger Sub (+956).

[HurlSweatPants]

Lawler line at -200, dropped from -215 over night. Waiting this one out fellas.

[Ty$]

Lawler line at -200, dropped from -215 over night. Waiting this one out fellas.

Nice I'm waiting... Who like these unders??? Reis/Sandoval u2.5 +105 and Graves/Velicovik u2.5 +195...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice I'm waiting... Who like these unders??? Reis/Sandoval u2.5 +105 and Graves/Velicovik u2.5 +195...

Graves under looks good. Reis is a grinder so I don't know if he gets the finish

[Ty$]

Graves under looks good. Reis is a grinder so I don't know if he gets the finish

He's fighting a regional gnp wrestler I say he finds a sub... He seems to finish a lot of his low level fighters. Also I'm not liking the under on graves after I do more research. Velicovik is pretty big and will prolly survive. I am leaning towards uncle creepy/Rivera/karolina

[Ty$]

Brown KO/TKO opened at (+130), Ellenberger Sub (+956).

Brown by KO already down to like -120 fml I missed it

[Hugo de Naranja]

Brown by KO already down to like -120 fml I missed it

Yup. He might get a guillotine or triangle so the Sub or ITD lines are also good

[bjpenn85]

He's fighting a regional gnp wrestler I say he finds a sub... He seems to finish a lot of his low level fighters. Also I'm not liking the under on graves after I do more research. Velicovik is pretty big and will prolly survive. I am leaning towards uncle creepy/Rivera/karolina

Creepy= not cashing
Rivera= maybe?
Karolina = also not cashing.

[Ty$]

I like the veteran factor of McCall.. Only lost to the ELITE. And I really think Rose is going to have a hard time taking down karolina.

[bjpenn85]

I like the veteran factor of McCall.. Only lost to the ELITE. And I really think Rose is going to have a hard time taking down karolina.

Cant be taken down, cant be outstruck. Like the veteran factor all you like. Hide behind that stupid reason if you want.

Look at the matchup: On the feet is scoggings, and he cant be taken down. Thats the style matchup.

So how does mccall win? 1 2 fight...ok..scogings dances around....leg kick....another leg kick...mccall cant get the takedown...side kick wheel kick.

15 min later, and winner by unanimous dec juuuuuuustin scooooooggggins.

Oh wait, hes a veteran. Ok my mistake.

[Ty$]

Cant be taken down, cant be outstruck. Like the veteran factor all you like. Hide behind that stupid reason if you want.

Look at the matchup: On the feet is scoggings, and he cant be taken down. Thats the style matchup.

So how does mccall win? 1 2 fight...ok..scogings dances around....leg kick....another leg kick...mccall cant get the takedown...side kick wheel kick.

15 min later, and winner by unanimous dec juuuuuuustin scooooooggggins.

Oh wait, hes a veteran. Ok my mistake.

Damn brah chill ... I thought we combined our super powers?

[firekillex]

To say McCall has 0 shot is just stupid lol first of all its mma , 2nd of all he has power for 125 and could easily stop scoggins , he's ranked higher, he has more fights, has fought better competition .. Scoggins has lost before to 2 people who are worse then McCall and he's still pretty young in the sport where McCall is desperate for a win that's when you're most dangerous.. At +200 odds or more there's huge value on McCall , he's been taken down by worse wrestlers and hit by worse strikers basically a toss up fight , maybe slight edge scoggins but to say it's 100% shot means you're trolling or don't know mma BJ . Scoggins literally has fought 2 ranked guys at 25 and lost both times so get off his nuts

and karolina definitely has a shot over rose

[Ty$]

To say McCall has 0 shot is just stupid lol first of all its mma , 2nd of all he has power for 125 and could easily stop scoggins , he's ranked higher, he has more fights, has fought better competition .. Scoggins has lost before to 2 people who are worse then McCall and he's still pretty young in the sport where McCall is desperate for a win that's when you're most dangerous.. At +200 odds or more there's huge value on McCall , he's been taken down by worse wrestlers and hit by worse strikers basically a toss up fight , maybe slight edge scoggins but to say it's 100% shot means you're trolling or don't know mma BJ . Scoggins literally has fought 2 ranked guys at 25 and lost both times so get off his nuts

and karolina definitely has a shot over rose

Thanks both +200 I have small on both already

[firekillex]

Masvidal decision +132 could have value

[bjpenn85]

To say McCall has 0 shot is just stupid lol first of all its mma , 2nd of all he has power for 125 and could easily stop scoggins , he's ranked higher, he has more fights, has fought better competition .. Scoggins has lost before to 2 people who are worse then McCall and he's still pretty young in the sport where McCall is desperate for a win that's when you're most dangerous.. At +200 odds or more there's huge value on McCall , he's been taken down by worse wrestlers and hit by worse strikers basically a toss up fight , maybe slight edge scoggins but to say it's 100% shot means you're trolling or don't know mma BJ . Scoggins literally has fought 2 ranked guys at 25 and lost both times so get off his nuts

and karolina definitely has a shot over rose

Listen, am never angry hehe, only enthusiastic. Ok, this is more or less a lock in my eyes. Its that constant movement of scoggings. You cant mccall scoggings. He moves around, stick and move all the fakking time. You cant tie together combos. You cant imitate that guy in the gym. Oh so you gotta guy like that in the gym? To bad he doesnt do eeexactly what scoggins do, and thats the problem, like brian stann so wisely said. You need to have scoggings in your gym to beat him currently. Same with stephan thompson...you cant figure him out of the same damn reason. This isnt a typical prospect, this is champion. You guys dont understand. Bad thing is, the oddsmakers has already factored that shit into the odds, but i still find value at scoggings at -200, which he easily can end up being friday or saturdat. I think that is the right (M)call, sorry pardon the pun.

Karolina has a shot, but im not impressed. Sloppy, if that sloppy technique with some will power wins you fights in the ufc, am doing a sex change right now, cause that shit shouldn't work against high caliber fighters. Period.

[bjpenn85]

Damn brah chill ... I thought we combined our super powers?

Just absolutely fiiiiiiired up. No aggression, only love!

[JIBBBY]

MMAmania write ups in.. (PRELIMS ONLY)




170 lbs.: Michael Graves vs. Bojan Velickovic
Michael Graves (6-0) opened American Top Team’s run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 on a sour note with a loss to Kamaru Usman, but redeemed himself later on with a comeback submission of Jason Jackson. In UFC itself, he’s edged out castmate Vicente Luque and tapped "Lookin’ for a Fight" product Randy Brown.
Three of his wins have come by (technical) knockout.
Bojan Velickovic (14-3) entered UFC on a four-fight win streak, bringing with him the RFA Welterweight title. This past April, he made his promotional debut at Middleweight with a narrow decision over Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico.


He stands four inches taller than Graves at 6’2."
Before Velickovic’s debut, I expressed doubts about how well the hulking Serb would do against an opponent he couldn’t outclass physically. My concerns were decently well-founded, as he had some issues with Di Chirico and ultimately escaped with a close decision. While he’ll do better at 170 pounds, I’m not convinced his strength can overcome Graves’ wrestling edge.
The ATT-trained product should be the better striker and better overall grappler. "Serbian Steel’s" physicality could present some hurdles, but none that Graves can’t overcome en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Graves via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano

Following his "Fight of the Night" debut against Josh Sampo, injuries kept Ryan Benoit (8-4) out of the cage for more than one year. He made a triumphant return by knocking out Sergio Pettis in March 2015, but fell short against Ben Nguyen the following November.
He replaces the injured Ray Borg on short notice.
Fredy Serrano (3-0) -- a 2008 freestyle wrestling Olympian -- entered TUF: "Latin America" as one of Team Fabricio Werdum’s best hopes before falling to eventual winner Alejandro Perez in his first bout. He’s found more success in UFC itself, knocking out Bentley Syler and stopping Yao Zhikui on an arm injury.
He will give up three inches of height to the 5’5" Benoit.
Serrano isn’t as screwed as he would have been against Borg, but he’s still in for a rough night. The Colombian is a full decade older than his opponent, who can dish out just as much hurt on the feet and likely stifle Serrano’s wrestling attack.
The height discrepancy might be what really does in Serrano because he doesn’t set up his strikes or takedowns particularly well. If he attempts to bully his way into range or throw something wild from too far out, Benoit’s very well-equipped to punish him. "Baby Face" brings his UFC record to 2-2 with a mid-round knockout.
Prediction: Benoit via second-round technical knockout


155 lbs.: Cezar Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown

Representing Paraguay on TUF: "Latin America 2," Cezar Arzamendia (7-2) knocked out Oliver Meza before tapping to eventual winner Enrique Barzola. He still got to join his castmates at UFC Fight Night 78, where Polo Reyes put him to sleep with first-round punches.
Four of his seven wins, including his last three, have come by submission.
Damien Brown (15-9) rebounded from a four-fight losing streak to rattle off five straight wins in his native Australia. When UFC made its way to Brisbane, Australia, he stepped up on short notice to face Alan Patrick and ultimately lost a unanimous decision.
"Beatdown" submitted eight opponents himself.
What stood out to me when I watched Arzamendia on TUF is the fact that he really has no idea what he’s doing on the feet. His punches on the show were some of the ugliest I can remember seeing in quite some time, so much so that I can’t in good conscience pick him even against the painfully mediocre Brown.
Arzamendia’s decent on the ground, but not to the extent that I can ignore his myriad other flaws. I expect the generally tough-to-finish Brown to control the fight on the feet before eventually locking up a submission following either a knockdown or takedown of his own.
Prediction: Brown via first-round submission

[JIBBBY]

205 lbs.: Nikita Krylov vs. Ed Herman
Nikita Krylov (20-4) opened his UFC career 1-2, suffering stoppage losses to Soa Palelei and Ovince Saint Preux. The Ukranian been on an absolute tear since, stopping four opponents in less than two rounds apiece.
Nineteen of his 20 stoppage wins have come in the first round.
After over a decade at Middleweight, Ed Herman (23-11) moved up to 205 pounds this January against Tim Boetsch. There in Boston, Mass., he put his 36-second knockout loss to Derek Brunson behind him with a brutal clinch knee that put "The Barbarian" down for the count.


"Short Fuse" is more than 10 years older than his foe.
I keep expecting Krylov to lose and he keeps, well, not losing. The man formerly known as "Al Capone" is raw as hell, but he just keeps getting it done. He’s got solid power striking, bizarrely effective Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and ought to have a considerable size advantage over the long-time Middleweight despite being a fairly small 205-pound fighter himself.
Even though Herman’s still got plenty of tricks left up his sleeve, as he amply demonstrated against Boetsch, I doubt he can overcome the physical disparity. Krylov overwhelms him on the feet before locking up a submission partway through the second.
Prediction: Krylov via second-round submission

170 lbs.: Ross Pearson vs. Jorge Masvidal

Starting with a robbery loss at the hands of Diego Sanchez, Ross Pearson (19-11) has alternated losses and wins for eight consecutive bouts. Earlier this month, he welcomed former Bellator MMA Lightweight champion Will Brooks to UFC and lost a competitive decision.
He replaces the ailing Siyar Bahadurzada on short notice.
After a highly-questionable decision loss to Al Iaquinta snapped a three-fight win streak, Jorge Masvidal (29-11) made the move up to Welterweight and utterly thrashed Cezar "Mutante" in his first appearance. The split decisions just wouldn’t leave him alone, however, as he ran afoul of two straight against Benson Henderson and Lorenz Larkin.
He stands three inches taller than Pearson at 5’11."
One one hand, Masvidal is a perpetual underachiever whose jab-happy offense ostensibly plays right into Pearson’s hands. On the other, he’s quite a bit taller than "Real Deal" and the Brit hasn’t been consistently effective in ages ... not to mention the short notice.
I’ve got to give it to "Gamebred" here, even with Pearson’s alternating win/loss sequence projecting a victory. Masvidal has the wrestling edge, the better kicking game and the edge in size, too. He blends striking and takedowns together for a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Masvidal via unanimous decision


265 lbs.: Anthony Hamilton vs. Damian Grabowski

Fresh off the first defense of his RFA Heavyweight title, Anthony Hamilton (14-5) debuted against Alexey Oleinik and suffered a first-round submission loss in San Antonio. He has since gone even (2-2) with a loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov.
He is four inches taller than Damian Grabowski (20-3) at 6’5."
Grabowski’s six-fight win streak came to a crashing halt at the hands of Marcin Tybura, but successfully rebounded with a submission of Kontastin Gluhov. This set up an Octagon debut earlier this year against Derrick Lewis, who pounded "The Polish Pitbull" into the dirt midway through the first round.
He has submitted 11 opponents and knocked out another six.
I was once somewhat high on Hamilton after seeing him flatten Smealinho Rama with a gorgeous head kick, but that was a long time ago. His wrestling just isn’t as effective as it needs to be and his striking lacks the finesse to bring his power to bear. Grabowski can match him most anywhere the fight goes and has the added advantage of an excellent chin. In fact, he was still conscious despite an absolute carpet bombing from Derrick Lewis and has stood up to big hitters like Kenny Garner before.
The Pole is crisper on the feet and I’m not convinced Hamilton can grind him out as he’s done to others. Grabowski controls the striking and ultimately takes home the decision.
Prediction: Grabowski via unanimous decision


125 lbs.: Wilson Reis vs. Hector Sandoval

Wilson Reis (20-6) -- a former Bellator standout -- split a pair of bouts in UFC's Bantamweight division before making the drop to 125 pounds. He’s won three of his last four there, losing only to Jussier da Silva and dominating Dustin Ortiz his last time out.
He has submitted nine professional opponents, all via choke.
Team Alpha Male’s Hector Sandoval (12-2) has won four straight since a technical knockout loss to Willie Gates back in 2014. His last time out, the former Tachi Palace champion knocked out Eloy Garza to raise his career finish total to five.
He is Reis’ third scheduled opponent after both Demetrious Johnson and Sean Santella were forced to withdraw.
Barring his tendency to get dropped hard in the early going, Reis has every advantage here. He looked tremendous in dominating a very, very game Dustin Ortiz, shutting down the wrestler’s vaunted scrambles and holding his own on the feet. Sandoval is aggressive and throws heat, but is woefully outclassed on the mat.
The only real question here is whether Sandoval can survive the submission onslaught. Considering the short notice and his level of opposition, I’m going to predict Reis taps him in the first round.
Prediction: Reis via first-round submission

[alrightbud]

I'm leaning Krylov and Karolina heavy here. Graves is looking good as well after what he did to Randy Brown.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm leaning Krylov and Karolina heavy here. Graves is looking good as well after what he did to Randy Brown.

I like all three although I wouldn't go enormous on Krylov given his defensive flaws. This is one he should win but I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't.

[Thrilla]

- UFC welterweight title challenger Tyron Woodley speaks with John Pollock ahead of his shot against champ Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 to discuss learning about his bout against Lawler, being tested for PEDs, his budding acting career and more. (Champ Camp vid's on page 3 of thread)


- Some of the pros make their picks for UFC 201: Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley including Aljamain Sterling, Rory MacDonald and Misha Cirkunov.


- Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald UFC 189 2015.07.11 "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler earned a fifth round UFC knockout victory against Rory MacDonald at UFC 189 in one of the best fights in UFC history.


- Tyron Woodley vs Josh Koscheck (UFC 167 2013.11.16)

[PaperTrail07]

krylov is the play-$$

I'm leaning Krylov and Karolina heavy here. Graves is looking good as well after what he did to Randy Brown.

[Hugo de Naranja]

krylov is the play-$$

Al Capone likes Al Capone lol

[JIBBBY]

SBR is still home base for serious MMA talk and picks, best forum section around and it's still a little unknown secret... KEEP IT UP BOYS!!!


This is where MMA winning gamblers are made and born..

[KingHawkins]

Little something I found from Damien Brown. There is also another video from last month if you check out his channel. I think I was the 6th view for each video.

I might be on him pretty damn large by fight time.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lawler line at -200, dropped from -215 over night. Waiting this one out fellas.

Down to (-175) on 5Ds and a few other books

[Ty$]

Down to (-175) on 5Ds and a few other books

Nice I should keep waiting. I think it could get to -130 I'm predicting ...

[HurlSweatPants]

Down to (-175) on 5Ds and a few other books

Just saw that, almost called it on the nose. Would like to see the line tomorrow, it is going to have to middle around -145. If it is still at -175 by the end of the night tomorrow I would jump on it. I don't see the late money coming in on Woodley, esp at barely + odds.

[firekillex]

Nice I should keep waiting. I think it could get to -130 I'm predicting ...

Jeeze happy I didn't bet him yet, I need to get back onto 5dimes -175 compared to -210 at my books currently.... Anything under -200 I'll be doing a big play on lawler if it gets down to -150 that's a gigantic steal and would be play of the year potential imo ... Keep coming down baby keep on comin

[JIBBBY]

Glad I hit Twood early on.. Had a feeling the odds would drop.. Twood at +155 now on 5d..

$500.00

$925.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tyron Woodley +185* vs Robbie Lawler

[Hugo de Naranja]

Glad I hit Twood early on.. Had a feeling the odds would drop.. Twood at +155 now on 5d..

$500.00

$925.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tyron Woodley +185* vs Robbie Lawler

Anyone else you like for this card?

[JIBBBY]

Anyone else you like for this card?

Taking a shot on Rivera.. He's +110 now and I jumped on this to early..

Rivera has fought tougher competition.. I think he takes it to Perez.. He really needs this win as well to stay employed in the UFC. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Rivera-11908

$200.00

$200.00

Pending

7/30/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Francisco Rivera +100* vs Erik Perez

[Hugo de Naranja]

Glad I hit Twood early on.. Had a feeling the odds would drop.. Twood at +155 now on 5d..

$500.00

$925.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tyron Woodley +185* vs Robbie Lawler

Historically the betting public does not like Ruthless

[JIBBBY]

Historically the betting public does not like Ruthless

Yep that always worries me.. World goes one way I like to go the other.. We'll see though, Twood seems ready to go..

[Ty$]

Lawler down to -165 keeping waiting Ruthless backers should only fall more.