Originally Posted by
bjpenn85
Adding:
6 units on Di Chirico, Laprise @ 1.91 to win - 5.4 units
2 units on Charles Oliveira @ 2.50 to win - 3 units
This card is not a card to bet heavy. A lot of mid level talent, without the consistency or the skill to lay any kind of big money. When that being said, to take the first parlay first. I do think De chirico is the all around better fighter. Good defensive qualities, improving standup and a good wrestling game. I do think he is quite the accurate striker. He tagged Belickovic a lot, and im not even sure Bojan actually won that fight. Its not tat mclellan cant win this fight, but he has shown in the bubba bush fight he can get taken down, and that he isnt really a good striker. I dont know how much stock one should put into the Cedenblad fight. Cedenblad had so much reach on Mclellan but he did get KOed, so that isnt positive in terms of defensive qualities. He did show that he has footwork of disengagement so if he can stick and move maybe he can frustrate de chirico. But i dont see it.
Laprise is just the overall better fighter, without a doubt better on the feet, but also probably better grappling as well. What sticks out in this matchup is Goutis weak defence. He was almost KOed against Kuivanen, and then knocked down before getting submitted against Packalen, so if Laprise looses this fight a lot of people will raise their eyebrows, but fluke KOs happens in MMA.
Charles oliveira vs Pettis. This is more or less a value bet, as i see some value in Oliveira here. I view it more as a coin toss for several reasons. I dont know where Pettis is at this point. He has lost arguably against the world number 1, 2 and 3, so the losses are as legit as they come. His main problem has been that he lets his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. Pettis usually needs space to operate and with Oliveiras forward pressure it may so be that he doesnt get that space. The BJJ will probably be nullified but after some thoughts i do think Oliveira can get takedowns as well, and Oliveiras BJJ is so good you almost have to favour him if its going to the ground, but this is an unknown. I do think that if Stephans can get out of all of oliveiras submission attempts, although so many were seconds away from getting completed, you got to belive pettis has the same defensive bjj skills. What have impressed me with Oliveira is that he has really good takedowns. He was able to get stephans down almost at will in their fights which i think nobody really believed prefight, cause stephans tdd isnt the worst. So if Oliveira try, perhaps he can get Pettis to the ground. Oliveira skills on the feet is ok, in terms of his offensive skills, he uses the push kick a lot and he also has decent 1 2s, but his defence is horrible. If its one big flaw in his game, thats it. Oliveira is so fragile its not even funy, so if it becomes a pure fight in the middle of the ring, in open space, i really dont think Oliveira will win. If Oliveira can somehow get out of a fight not getting knocked out, or rocked against stephans, there are good chances of him winning this fight due to being the more active fighter on the feet, not allowing pettis to get off and also getting takedowns.
I will like to add that despite Pettis have lost three in a row, we may criminally undervalue him at these odds. If looking past his losses Antony pettis was the champion for a reason in the light weight division. He met guys that could either muscle him around or a specialist in barboza that out strike him. Pettis is the overall better fighter, and can winkeljohn and jackson can make him believe himself again, he can win this fight in the first round.
Its possible i will hedge this play with Pettis TKO, or play pettis TKO if the price is right or just let it ride as it is only 2 units.