[Hugo de Naranja]

Im watched a bit more tape, and im a bit torn. I think she has a good shot more due to cardio advantage more than technical ability. She often stand square in front of her opponent in exchanges with the chin straight up in the air. Rose has better footwork and is a bit quicker and has more power, although no women in 115 div have power. Scoggings by dec off course, a little mistake there.

Makes sense. Should be a close fight but obvs the value is on the fighter that's (+2xx)

[bjpenn85]

Makes sense. Should be a close fight but obvs the value is on the fighter that's (+2xx)

Not always, but i think there is value here, she has beat a credible opponent in markos, although markos striking is very poor, clarke was tough and better as a striker than markos although many would say markos is the better overall fighter tough that doesnt really matter if we only looking at their striking capability in regards to this matchup.
Karolina did look a lot better IMO in the clarke fight so either shes improving rapidly or, she under performed. She still made a lot of the same defensive mistake in the clarke fight, she did tranfser them into that fight, the main difference was the output, accuracy the overall offensive striking game. But the defence is as important especially going into a fight with a lot better fighter in namajunas. So i would play Karolina a bit softer than first expected, but i may be wrong. Things often gets a bit more clearer closer to fight time for whatever reason.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2 units on Donald Trump to win election (sadly) @ 3.25 to win - 4.5 units

[bjpenn85]

Final bets for UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

14 units on M.Graves @ 1.52 to win 7.3 units
10 units on F. Ngannou, M.Brown @ 1.5 to win- 5 units
7.5 units on R.Lawler @ 1.48 to win - 3.5 units
2 units on J.Scoggins dec @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
2 units on Ed Herman @ 2.60 to win - 3.2 units
1 unit on Ellenberger inside dist @ 5.44 to win back - 4.4 units
0.75 units on Woodley tko @ 5 to win back - 3.3 units

[Ty$]

No separate brown plays??
I'm tailing this event... Keep it up BJ... I like the dog play on Herman jus not sure about his cardio..?!

[Hugo de Naranja]

No separate brown plays??
I'm tailing this event... Keep it up BJ... I like the dog play on Herman jus not sure about his cardio..?!

I think both he and Krylov have pretty suspect cardio

[bjpenn85]

No separate brown plays??
I'm tailing this event... Keep it up BJ... I like the dog play on Herman jus not sure about his cardio..?!

And his speed and his plodding movement, all sorts of problems with herman. But.....but but but..he has beat Rafael Natal which has beat a lot of guys, lastly a very close fight with whittaker, so thats level Ed herman can perform at. Boetsch is a can, but still beat Samman. Again Ed herman beat boetsch. So he isnt a can, and Krylov has only beaten cans. But hes beating cans somewhat impressively, but leave so many openings its just a matter of time before he gets clipped thought a lesson. Its Herman that guy? He got submissions and hes got veteran experience and good fundamentals on the feet, but the tempo krylov sets, will it be to fast? Krylov comes with that never ending gas tank it seems, or at least in two rounds, so its a hell of a fun matchup.

I cant bet herman more than 2 units taking all of those factors into consideration. The + money you get, well, its a reason you get it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

And his speed and his plodding movement, all sorts of problems with herman. But.....but but but..he has beat Rafael Natal which has beat a lot of guys, lastly a very close fight with whittaker, so thats level Ed herman can perform at. Boetsch is a can, but still beat Samman. Again Ed herman beat boetsch. So he isnt a can, and Krylov has only beaten cans. But hes beating cans somewhat impressively, but leave so many openings its just a matter of time before he gets clipped thought a lesson. Its Herman that guy? He got submissions and hes got veteran experience and good fundamentals on the feet, but the tempo krylov sets, will it be to fast? Krylov comes with that never ending gas tank it seems, or at least in two rounds, so its a hell of a fun matchup.

I cant bet herman more than 2 units taking all of those factors into consideration. The + money you get, well, its a reason you get it.

I'm considering playing both ITD and/or by Submission depending on what odds look like. I think there's a very good chance this doesn't go the distance.

[bjpenn85]

Final bets for UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

14 units on M.Graves @ 1.52 to win 7.3 units
10 units on F. Ngannou, M.Brown @ 1.5 to win- 5 units
7.5 units on R.Lawler @ 1.48 to win - 3.5 units
2 units on J.Scoggins dec @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
2 units on Ed Herman @ 2.60 to win - 3.2 units
1 unit on Ellenberger inside dist @ 5.44 to win back - 4.4 units
0.75 units on Woodley tko @ 5 to win back - 3.3 units

Michael Graves: Has already beaten Louis Henrique and Randy Brown both better overall MMA fighters and better strikers than Bojan. So why even make this matchup?

If graves find it uncomfortable against any striker, he has more than good enough striking to make people believe hes going to strike..and the shoot....and man oh man what an entry. Is that the quickest entry/takedown in ufc history? Obviously mighty mouse is quicker, but damn. Its so fast. This Bojan velocivic isnt really dangerous, he doesnt manage to KO mid level talent, and he lost his first round against benjamin smith in RFA. This is the year of the underdogs and all tha, but Graves should not have a problem with this guy at at all. I asked god, will you give me graves at -300? common, -350 then?

But then ill get him at fakkin -180. Kalikas is normally on point, but this line is a gift. Even Joe silva and Sean Shelby will sign up for this. Hell i even think Bojan vilickovic want some of that line Hah!

[Hugo de Naranja]

So you decided against a Kowalkiewicz bet all together?

[bjpenn85]

So you decided against a Kowalkiewicz bet all together?

I see rose outpointing her, and timing her. Karolina comes in with this 1234 combo all day. Its like pa pa pa pa.........paa pa pa pa pa going forward in a straigh line...every top striker would go, man you crazy? And just either move away or blist her with a jab. I dont think we will se another upset here. Rose is too technical and sound, and not only that. She is also good enough, or better striking wise which will open up for the takedown. It will be easy..peasy japanese. Its an underdog pick on the level of Herman. But i cant bet both Herman and Karolina. I rather prefer to pick Herman as im more interested in the fight and see more holes in Krylovs game than in Rose. She is still good, not just as good as i thought. If you play carolina, it shoudlnt be a big bet. Thats craczy considering this isnt really a nightmare matchup for rose. Karolina simply isnt that good IMO. Shes not a true specialist, only a fighter which are ok + and prefers to strike. Shes no valentina shevchenko with other words.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see rose outpointing her, and timing her. Karolina comes in with this 1234 combo all day. Its like pa pa pa pa.........paa pa pa pa pa going forward in a straigh line...every top striker would go, man you crazy? And just either move away or blist her with a jab. I dont think we will se another upset here. Rose is to technical, and not only that. She is also good enough, or better striking wise which will open up for the takedown. It will be easy..peasy japanese. Its a underdog pick on the level of Herman. It can back up your other bets, but it shouldnt be a main play and a play on here shouldnt decrease your overall profit on the card. She simply isnt that good IMO. Shes not a true specialist, only a fighter which are ok + and prefers to strike. Shes no valentina shevchenko with other words.

Gotta disagree with you there but we'll see how things turn out.

[bjpenn85]

Gotta disagree with you there but we'll see how things turn out.

Its visible just from the way they hold their hands when they are striking. Look at roose, its smooth. Look at Karolinas hand position, it looks unpolished, and just not clean. Usually my breakdowns just stop there. If i dont like how a person hold his hand in standing position, im not even watching.

Karolina had something, she had cardio, will power, a lot of that. But technique will be her downfall. I rewatched both roses and Karolinas fight and im more than confident that above mentioned elements will manifest itself in the fight. But.

We briefly discussed Roses last fight, i rewatched it, and i thought rose edged her out contrary to my first believe of how it went.. I def got a little biased towards Torres watching it live with rogan + i had a lot of money on rose which proably clouded me a bit. Torres had some leg kicks that didnt do too much damage in my opinion, i think thats why she statistically won the significant strikes battle.

[CaptChaos145]

In short. If this fight goes out of round 2, i think Diaz will find his normal rhythm and pace and cruise to a 5 round dec or get a stoppage victory in round 4 or 5. If the fight ends in round 1 and round 2, i think MCregor. At the same time, im having a very hard time believing MCregor will come out guns blazing after what happened in the last fight, so that a finish happens in round 1 or round 2 is perhaps a bit unrealistic. That means that MCregor unwillingly as a consequence of last fights result is playing right into diaz main strength, which is a prolonged boxing matchup. I believe MCregor will have a lot of the same issues as he had in the first fight. Maybe he will meet a wall and tire in round 3 or round 4.

In addition to have the advantage of a longer fight camp than 11 days, diaz has also fought at 170 punds, it may still be a very real issue for MCregor. Also the mentality is on diaz side as MCregor isnt really used to loosing and diaz did catch him. MCregor will def this time around show diaz a great deal of respect. Fear may be positive in that sense that he probably invests an abundance of traning hours and paying attention to details etc. We have already seen glimps of this as MCregor refused to show up on press conferances to focus on himself and the fight. But the fear wil also have another effect, i believe if diaz start to taunt MCregor in round 3, when shit hits the fan, that mcregor may fold again thinking " ah fakk, im tired and now he sets an even higher pace again". If someone quits like mcregor did, i think its a signature of how that person is. I think we all can go back to our childhood, do you remember that kid that always cried for little pathetic things, or that kid who always got really angry really fast? I think this is a type of neg characteristic. If you can get MCregor to quit once, i bet you can get him to do it again. He didnt quit late in round 3, it was in the middle of round 2. Its a red flag for MCregor backers.

Its still a bet with a lot of risk involved, we dont know if MCregor can control diaz on the ground, or if he for some reason can actually go the full 5 rounds. He has went to several 3 round decision without as much as breathing heavy, so its not outside the realm of possibility that he may go the full 5 rounds. But even though he can, at what pace? At nate diaz pace? Probably not and thats why i see value. MCregor is not foolishly attempting to win in round 1 and round 2, which is his best shot to win therefor this may prove to be a gift as MCregor is forced to show up alone in Diaz backyard unarmed. Ironically MCregors best shot of winning is the strategy he is the least likely to apply. But who can hold that against him, he did actually loose applying that strategy a couple of months ago...

I agree with your write up - nice job. I saw a couple things in the 1st fight that may actually play out in the rematch... Diaz took Conor down easily in round 1. Yes Conor did sweep Nate but Nate got lazy there for a second by standing over Conor bent over at the waist. When Conor was on top he was defending in Nate's guard - not landing shots. Conor landed 1 maybe 2 punches while on top of Nate for almost a full minute. Nate was very active off his back and I think he would have reversed, swept, or got back to his feet if there was a little more time in the round. I would not be surprised if the rematch was spent on the ground a lot more.

I agree... Conor can say all he wants about not conserving his energy etc... but the truth is he got tired, gassed, and broke. Conor is great when it's 1 way traffic but he obviously doesn't do well when he faces adversity and Nate is the worst opponent to face when you're hurt and/or tired.

There's also 1 more piece... Conor was asked if he would fight Nate again if he won the 2nd fight and Conor said he would fight Nate a 3rd time. This is a long shot hunch but what if Nate takes a dive in the 2nd fight hoping he gets a 3rd pay day out of this potential trilogy? I know that sounds crazy but I got a bad vibe from it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree with your write up - nice job. I saw a couple things in the 1st fight that may actually play out in the rematch... Diaz took Conor down easily in round 1. Yes Conor did sweep Nate but Nate got lazy there for a second by standing over Conor bent over at the waist. When Conor was on top he was defending in Nate's guard - not landing shots. Conor landed 1 maybe 2 punches while on top of Nate for almost a full minute. Nate was very active off his back and I think he would have reversed, swept, or got back to his feet if there was a little more time in the round. I would not be surprised if the rematch was spent on the ground a lot more.

I agree... Conor can say all he wants about not conserving his energy etc... but the truth is he got tired, gassed, and broke. Conor is great when it's 1 way traffic but he obviously doesn't do well when he faces adversity and Nate is the worst opponent to face when you're hurt and/or tired.

There's also 1 more piece... Conor was asked if he would fight Nate again if he won the 2nd fight and Conor said he would fight Nate a 3rd time. This is a long shot hunch but what if Nate takes a dive in the 2nd fight hoping he gets a 3rd pay day out of this potential trilogy? I know that sounds crazy but I got a bad vibe from it.

Did Nate take Conor down or did he pull guard? I haven't watched the fight super recently but I thought I remember him pulling guard.

I guess there's an outside shot that Diaz loses on purpose but even with that considered, (+115) is an insane price for him and I don't think the UFC is rigged.

[CaptChaos145]

And his speed and his plodding movement, all sorts of problems with herman. But.....but but but..he has beat Rafael Natal which has beat a lot of guys, lastly a very close fight with whittaker, so thats level Ed herman can perform at. Boetsch is a can, but still beat Samman. Again Ed herman beat boetsch. So he isnt a can, and Krylov has only beaten cans. But hes beating cans somewhat impressively, but leave so many openings its just a matter of time before he gets clipped thought a lesson. Its Herman that guy? He got submissions and hes got veteran experience and good fundamentals on the feet, but the tempo krylov sets, will it be to fast? Krylov comes with that never ending gas tank it seems, or at least in two rounds, so its a hell of a fun matchup.

I cant bet herman more than 2 units taking all of those factors into consideration. The + money you get, well, its a reason you get it.

I like Herman small here too. Krylov has 1 of the most interesting records in the UFC right now. 24 pro fights... NO decisions... only 2 fights made it out of the 1st round. His gas tank is suspect imo. He was gassing big time in his last fight and almost got finished but hung in there.

[CaptChaos145]

Did Nate take Conor down or did he pull guard? I haven't watched the fight super recently but I thought I remember him pulling guard.

I guess there's an outside shot that Diaz loses on purpose but even with that considered, (+115) is an insane price for him and I don't think the UFC is rigged.

Nate caught a kick and used a single to take Conor down easily. Then Nate lazily stood over Conor - Conor swept and landed on top.
I haven't heard anyone talk about this part of their last fight but i think it plays a much bigger role in the rematch.

Yeah I'm not saying Nate will throw the fight but it made me nervous listening to Conor say he would fight Nate a 3rd time if Conor won the rematch.

[CaptChaos145]

I like prop bets on Conor in round 2 @ +625 and Nate in round 2 @ +650, round 3 @ +950, round 4 @ +1350, and round 5 @ +1850.

[Ty$]

I like Herman small here too. Krylov has 1 of the most interesting records in the UFC right now. 24 pro fights... NO decisions... only 2 fights made it out of the 1st round. His gas tank is suspect imo. He was gassing big time in his last fight and almost got finished but hung in there.

I literally jus watched this fight and he seemed pretty fresh.. I saw rushed striking and poor sub defense. But also saw good aggression and decent not great TDD. Herman has a shot at TKO or sub but I think this kid will jus be too busy and have the size and cardio advantage. He tapped a decent black belt his last fight but also put himself in bad spots in guard. This could possibly be his first 3 round affair which I will be betting on. Oh he also took a mean up kick and seemed to eat it used to be a HW and this is Hermans 2nd fight at 205.

[bjpenn85]

I literally jus watched this fight and he seemed pretty fresh.. I saw rushed striking and poor sub defense. But also saw good aggression and decent not great TDD. Herman has a shot at TKO or sub but I think this kid will jus be too busy and have the size and cardio advantage. He tapped a decent black belt his last fight but also put himself in bad spots in guard. This could possibly be his first 3 round affair which I will be betting on. Oh he also took a mean up kick and seemed to eat it used to be a HW and this is Hermans 2nd fight at 205.

I havent thought about that. Krylov is probably used to the power at heavyweight. Hes quite strong. This fight is so hard to cap. I cant believe anyone say stuff like Krylov is a steal, its so many factors needed to take into consideration, call it a bonanza. Clearly a dog or pass situation. Krylov will either loose this fight, or his next if he get a step up in competition, so lets jump on the dog train this weekend.

[bjpenn85]

Appears these guys also favouring lawler a great deal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkCU5dWntP0

It has been discussed if Woodleys wrestling will play a role in this fight, these guys are quickly to refuse this. We already know that lawler easily handed Hendricks, a roided up hendricks. It will also cost woodley a great deal of energy, for what? Winning 30 sec of the fight before Lawler scrambles back up having 24 and 30 sec to beat you up?

The evidence is there, just wisely include this element into your capping. Woodley by TKO as hedge, off course we already have this prop locked weeks ago!

[Rich Benjamins]

I think Krylov will destroy Herman. True, Herman has decent takedown ability and dirty boxing/knees. But what he can't do is punch. He has these slow, pushing punches that have no power. Krylov is also bigger, used to be heavyweight whereas Herman used to be middleweight. Krylov will have no fear at all of Herman's punching power. So Krylov can pressure Herman and get him with some strong punches right off the bat. That's how Brunson beat Herman. He just came in under a slow left hook by Herman and stunned him with a sharp straight left.

If Krylov goes nuts and leave himself open, it might lead to a takedown or heavy knees in the clinch by Herman. But with the line at -150 Krylov, I think it's an easy bet. Only risk is will Krylov's inexperience and holes penetrate up his game? Maybe.

[bjpenn85]

I think Krylov will destroy Herman. True, Herman has decent takedown ability and dirty boxing/knees. But what he can't do is punch. He has these slow, pushing punches that have no power. Krylov is also bigger, used to be heavyweight whereas Herman used to be middleweight. Krylov will have no fear at all of Herman's punching power. So Krylov can pressure Herman and get him with some strong punches right off the bat. That's how Brunson beat Herman. He just came in under a slow left hook by Herman and stunned him with a sharp straight left.

If Krylov goes nuts and leave himself open, it might lead to a takedown or heavy knees in the clinch by Herman. But with the line at -150 Krylov, I think it's an easy bet. Only risk is will Krylov's inexperience and holes penetrate up his game? Maybe.

I have 0 confidence in Herman, but the holes in Krylovs game is too tempting to not bet against. I agree whole heartedly with what youre saying here. I see the fight exactly like you do.

[CaptChaos145]

Masvidal vs. Pearson. Leaning Masavidal but I wanna see that line get to under -200

[PaperTrail07]

With you my man....I feel even if he gets taken down he will get up or change the position....too strong and agile to lose to herman IMO...

I think Krylov will destroy Herman. True, Herman has decent takedown ability and dirty boxing/knees. But what he can't do is punch. He has these slow, pushing punches that have no power. Krylov is also bigger, used to be heavyweight whereas Herman used to be middleweight. Krylov will have no fear at all of Herman's punching power. So Krylov can pressure Herman and get him with some strong punches right off the bat. That's how Brunson beat Herman. He just came in under a slow left hook by Herman and stunned him with a sharp straight left.

If Krylov goes nuts and leave himself open, it might lead to a takedown or heavy knees in the clinch by Herman. But with the line at -150 Krylov, I think it's an easy bet. Only risk is will Krylov's inexperience and holes penetrate up his game? Maybe.

[bjpenn85]

Masvidal vs. Pearson. Leaning Masavidal but I wanna see that line get to under -200

I think Masvidal can get the job done here. But you should wait to get -200. I dont think Masvidal ever has lost to a fighter below him on the rankings. That means he should win. I was somewhat suprised to see how even brooks and pearson fought, but i think ring rust, short fight camp, and a lot of other factors played a role, making pearson look better compared to brooks than he really is. The skill disparity is way larger between bojan and graves and in other fights, so i would avoid playing masvidal. I think the fight is unnecessary close to make a bet on it. On a card where i dont have any other openings i would have played masvidal. But the card is full of opportunities, im not going to wager against a fighter having a razor close decision against freaken will brooks, i mean common. Its risky as fakk.

Fight is too close, so a point deduction, or any other crap may have person win a split dec. I think the over maybe be the way to go here. Pearson wont get KO i think, last 13 fight he has lost twice by KO and to pretty big punchers, and he wont get submitted, and not a chance in hell if pearson can stop masvidal, so i cant see a finish here. Better to not have the judges f up everything. Line will probably never reach -200 though.

[bjpenn85]

Results so far on thread:

Bet record: 28-10
Main plays (defined as bet larger than 3 units): 12-2
Main play %: 85%
Underdog bets, defined as bet larger than 1 unit): 7-2
Last event result: +10.5 units
Event frequency: 10
Average profit per event: 419 dollars
Membership stripped:Betfred, Boylesports, Skysports, Betsson, Paddypower, Unibet, Betway.
Active memberships: 5dimes, Pinnaclesports

Results since 7th. may 2016: +41.95 units or 4195 dollar

1 unit = 100 dollars

[KushMoney]

Whats up brotha what are your thoughts on Perez vs. Rivera



I want to bet alot of money on Rivera, talk me out of it?

[Ty$]

Whats up brotha what are your thoughts on Perez vs. Rivera



I want to bet alot of money on Rivera, talk me out of it?

I'm on Rivera.

[bjpenn85]

Whats up brotha what are your thoughts on Perez vs. Rivera



I want to bet alot of money on Rivera, talk me out of it?

I dont bet on pickems unless:

1. Favourable matchups/consistency
2. Top level talent
3. Price

So Perez or rivera is not top level talent + rivera got big power. Hard to bet on fights like these in the long run and win. Therefor im not even looking at that fight. Doesnt interest me one bit. If someone said, but you have to make a pick, i would lean perez as rivera fakking sucks.

[bjpenn85]

I'm on Rivera.

But rivera fakking sucks? Why bet on him? I dont get it.

[Ty$]

But rivera fakking sucks? Why bet on him? I dont get it.

Size and forward pressure. We've seen Perez get rocked.

[bjpenn85]

Size and forward pressure. We've seen Perez get rocked.

Ive hadnt had the time to break this fight down. He was taken down a lot against Pickett. Will he be taken down by perez do you think?

[Rich Benjamins]

Size and forward pressure. We've seen Perez get rocked.

Rivera was going backwards most of his last fight vs Pickett. He complained about leg pain, Pickett kicked him in the calves, that might have hurt his leg. Rivera looks stiff, but he does have fast, powerful punches. Perez seems to be a slicker fighter overall, without the power of Rivera. But Perez has been gone awhile so might have ring rust. I don't know which way I'd bet on this one. How would you measure how each man stacks up against the other without seeing them fight?

[bjpenn85]

Rivera was going backwards most of his last fight vs Pickett. He complained about leg pain, Pickett kicked him in the calves, that might have hurt his leg. Rivera looks stiff, but he does have fast, powerful punches. Perez seems to be a slicker fighter overall, without the power of Rivera. But Perez has been gone awhile so might have ring rust. I don't know which way I'd bet on this one. How would you measure how each man stacks up against the other without seeing them fight?

9 months isnt that bad is it? Just watched perez vs lapilus. Perez isnt that bad. He has will power and cardio and ok striking. Maybe he leaves himself a bit open at times but i really cant see any edge here. Striking tech. should go the rivera, and im pretty sure Rivera wont getting taken down as riveras tdd historically is good while perez entries isnt anything special. Finish its rivera, a decision maybe perez. Overall my opinion on this fight hasnt changed after seing this fight, its still a pass for me. If you have a nose for bad bets, you should recognise one...this is one of those IMO