[Rich Benjamins]

In order to improve our MMA betting skills, and increase our knowledge on how to bet on the fighters when they fight again, it's good to review the fights. The following are my random thoughts on UFC 198's fights. Any additional random thoughts are welcome.


Moraes Vs Chagas

Chagas had great standup and great kicks. Moraes was unsure of how to deal with it and his timidity was his undoing in the first round. Chagas got tired after that round, and he was sluggish in the next 2, understandable as he took this fight on only 2 weeks notice. Moraes corner gave him good advice to be more aggressive in the 2nd round, and when he was he took the next 2 rounds.Judges didn't see it that way and gave it a draw. Moraes had a much better ground game than Chagas, but Chagas was better on the feet with deadly kicks. Chagas is only 22 years old, look for him to be a killer in his next fight. Moraes is a decent fighter but not exceptional enough to beat most of the top 10 in the division.

Noguiera vs Cummins

Cummins game plan was to avoid punching with Nogueira, and stay far away and work kicks until he can get close enough for a takedown. But takedowns aren't easy to get in today's MMA, and he wasn't able to get one. He doesn't have Demian Maia's single leg takedown skills. Lil Nog has good standup, and could get in range to eventually outbox and KO Cummins. Nog had a lot of confidence, despite taking some hard leg kicks. On hindsight, Nog would've been a decent bet, remembering that he did wobble Shogun with a punch in his last fight. Cummin's wrestling was not good. Lots of people had the illusion that Cummins is a decent MMA fighter, but everyone he has beaten aren't very good, most got cut from the UFC.

Cummins, at 35 years old, is likely seeing his career on a downswing at this point. He looked very disappointed at the end, looking like he was about to cry. I remember Pat Barry had a similar look in his last UFC fight against Soa Palelei, and he lost his next fight. I'd look to bet against Cummins on his next fight if he's against a decent veteran or an up and comer.


John Lineker Vs Rob Font

Font ran around the cage, trying to avoid Lineker's power. While Lineker stalked like a lion chasing an antelope. This probably could've been predicted as Font has danced around sub-par fighters like George Roop and Joey Gomez in his other 2 UFC fights. Font is an up and comer, so many avoided betting on Lineker. But the result could've been pre-determined based on Font's last 2 fights where he didn't dominate as much as he could've if he were a better fighter.

Trinaldo Vs Medeiros

A great slugfest worthy of FOTN. Trinaldo has a much shorter reach but was able to cut the distance and hit Medeiros with bombs. I thought Medeiros, the younger fighter with likely more endurance, was going to win the fight when he dropped Trinaldo at the end of the 2nd round. But luckily the round was over and Trinaldo got a much-needed rest. Overall, expected Trinaldo to win after Medeiros previous performances. But seeing how Trinaldo struggled in this fight, and only edged out Pearson for a win in his previous fight, I would be against him if he's against a top 15 fighter, unless the line is worse than -300.

Santos Vs Marquardt

This fight was an absolute no brainer bet on Santos probably up to -700. Santos has been looking better and better every fight. He KOed Steve Bosse with a disguised head kick. Then he beat Elias Theodorou who looked unstoppable in previous fights. Marquardt has been fighting scared and has been easily KOed lately. He only beat CB Dollaway, who came after him head first and gave it to him the KO on a platter, and James Te Huna, who has recently showed that he's a can with a low fight IQ. Maquardt lost to Tavares, who looked slow in his KO loss to Whittaker in his previous fight. There's pretty much no way Marquardt could've won this fight, Santos even said in interviews that he respects Marquardt and would be careful. That shows he likely wasn't going to be sloppy and make a mistake that Marquardt could capitalize on. Santos KOed Maruardt in the first round, and I believe that was a likely outcome given how often Marquardt has been KOed in the first or second round recently. Would've been a decent bet, without being too results oriented.


Maia Vs Brown

I certainly didn't expect Maia to dominate Brown so easily. But Brown has been susceptible to takedown attempts, and was taken down at will by Johnny Hendricks. That likely was a sign that he'd be taken down easily by Maia. There was a reason the betting line made Maia an even bigger favorite as the fight approached. Not much to say here, except Maia would probably beat Lawler with this same strategy if he was granted a title fight.


Alves Vs Barbarena

This is a prime example to be careful betting on massive favorites. Just because a fighter is a massive favorite, doesn't always mean they are going to win. The linemakers do get it wrong at times. And if there is any doubt at all that a massive favorite might lose then it certainly isn't worth a bet at -600. A bet on Alves would yield a small win and risk a big loss. Alves is still fairly new to the UFC, and he had an adrenaline dump in the first round. He was huffing and puffing in between the 1st and 2nd rounds. I also saw a fight on youtube where Alves didn't seem to have much power in his punches. Here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECAo2w5ZtkI it took him about 5 clean, full power shots at the end to KO his opponent. We all knew Barbarena was tough. Overall, a bad bet on Alves.

Rua Vs Anderson

This fight was surprising, I thought Anderson would outwork Rua. He looked good against Jan Blagovich who has been fighting pretty well, and Anderson had a 3 fight win streak. He also looked confident in interviews. He racked up points for the most part, but got clocked hard by Rua at the end of the 1st and 2nd round. That was enough to give Rua a split decision win. Rua is known to hit hard, even though he has been losing to wrestlers like Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen. I guess the moral here is Rua is an MMA legend and still young at 34, he isn't ready to retire anytime soon. And Anderson hasn't established himself yet as a complete high level fighter, he's still a little sloppy and learning the game. This fight would've been best to not be bet on.

Cyborg Vs Smith

This was the kind of fight to put most of your bankroll on Cyborg at -1500, or even -2000. She looked didn't look too dehydrated dropping to 140. Smith is a low level 135er, and in fact natural weight class is only 125. And Cyborg KOs 145ers with ease. Many people thought it was a joke having Smith fight Cyborg. Jessica Eye had tweeted it being a joke, and she has fought and beaten Smith.

I had put a small bet on Cyborg to get the KO in the first round. But I didn't bet big there, thinking that Smith might be able to last one round. I was surely wrong there.

Souza vs Belfort

This was an easy bet on Souza for -300. This fight, Santos vs Marquardt and Cyborg vs Smith were the 3 no brainers on the card IMO. Souza is extremely good, beating top level fighters except a juiced up Romero. Belfort has been a comedy act lately. He had no ground game whatsoever against Weidman. He beat an old man in Henderson and that puffed him up. Without his TRT, he is a shadow of his old self. He didn't land a single punch against Souza. In interviews, Souza said he was thrilled to get this fight, now we all know why, an easy stress-free payday for him.

Werdum vs Miocic

Lots of people, including the line makers and Jose Aldo, were very confident that Werdum should be the favorite. But he looked slow and sloppy. Once he got the belt, he said his life changed. After you climb a mountain, you feel like your work is done. Clearly, he didn't have the intensity in training like he did to win the belt. That said, congrats to Miocic, his game looked very sharp. I would bet on Miocic to be the favorite to beat Cain Velasquez, as his boxing looks sharp, and he has size on Cain.

[JIBBBY]

Impressive post... That about sums it up..

2 things that I remember that were alarming to see...

1) Patrick Cummings didn't fight aggressively and to his wrestling strengths.. He's a wrestler and tried to box it out with Little Nog. I thought Cummings would press, shoot and grind on the older Little Nog from the very start.. HORRIBLE GAME PLAN for Patrick Cummings and he got dropped.. PC reminded me of Josh Kos in that fight... Not sure what he was thinking?

2) Vitor Belfort fought to try and survive as it seemed from the opening bell.. Back fired.. He never came out swinging and that's his strength, he never looked to go after the big KO.... Not sure what he was thinking not going after it?



That was most shocking to see for me with this card...

[Rich Benjamins]

Thanks Jibby. I agree with your two points. I wasn't shocked to see Belfort fight like that, he's been looking clueless in his fights. Cummins was more surprising to me.

[Ultimatemeatball]

Impressive post... That about sums it up..

2 things that I remember that were alarming to see...

1) Patrick Cummings didn't fight aggressively and to his wrestling strengths.. He's a wrestler and tried to box it out with Little Nog. I thought Cummings would press, shoot and grind on the older Little Nog from the very start.. HORRIBLE GAME PLAN for Patrick Cummings and he got dropped.. PC reminded me of Josh Kos in that fight... Not sure what he was thinking?

2) Vitor Belfort fought to try and survive as it seemed from the opening bell.. Back fired.. He never came out swinging and that's his strength, he never looked to go after the big KO.... Not sure what he was thinking not going after it?



That was most shocking to see for me with this card...

I expected Matt Brown to at least try to initiate a more aggressive striking game plan from the opening bell, and wasn't able to unleash anything. Maia had the perfect game plan, as he usually does. In the beginning of the 3rd a somewhat gassed Maia, after 2 unsuccessful takedowns, was dropped by Brown. Matt foolishly jumped back into Maia's guard instead of letting him back up. That was a wrap.