[bjpenn85]

I think Walt Harris is a decent bet. I got him @ +160, but +130 is still value. Walt Harris was actually a golden gloves champion is bigger, better athlete, quicker, fought best competition, and have decent enough takedown defence to keep the fight upright. Except from being out one and a half year he has most advantages. Worth a small bet. Hot chocolate is the easy pick of the card, hes given an favourabe matchup. He often gets taken down, but hes usually able to scramble or submit people from his back. Easy parlay filler with jones and DJ.

[HurlSweatPants]

de Lima vs Hester stood out to me. I like the fav here, Hester gasses out fairly quick and doesn't seem to have much fighter IQ nor heart, if he faces some adversity or can't outwrestle you he folds like a cheap lawn chair.

[HurlSweatPants]

I might hedge the Hester DEC incase he humps him for 3 rounds but this looks like my biggest prelim play. Will def have money on de Lima KO, inside the distance, and Lima straight.
I need a big card as I got lucky with Rose and a last minute bet on Glover to make a sprinkle.

[bjpenn85]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBckaWXh_fo

Is this guy beating Walt Harris?

[bjpenn85]

de Lima vs Hester stood out to me. I like the fav here, Hester gasses out fairly quick and doesn't seem to have much fighter IQ nor heart, if he faces some adversity or can't outwrestle you he folds like a cheap lawn chair.

True, but it may go both ways. But i will also favour De lima, since he probably have a easier path to win.

[HurlSweatPants]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBckaWXh_fo

Is this guy beating Walt Harris?

Naaaahhhhhhhh

[Shagdogy]

de Lima vs Hester stood out to me. I like the fav here, Hester gasses out fairly quick and doesn't seem to have much fighter IQ nor heart, if he faces some adversity or can't outwrestle you he folds like a cheap lawn chair.

Just did my research for this fight and I like De Lima to win too. I share the same concerns you do on Hester but the biggest reason is that De Lima holds both the power and chin advantage. It seems inevitable that if he can find a little space and get to trading (which Hester can be drawn into) then Hester will fall first. The only adv Hester can hope for is to get on top and smother. I really think De Lima wins.

[HurlSweatPants]

The lines for the O/U for both the Hester and Harris fight are saying it will be over quick. That should favor Harris and de Lima.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone see value in Efrain? He's a seasoned, solid fighter. I think he'll be the most solid wrestler Lee has faced (can anyone confirm?) and might be able to grind out a decision. His lack of KO power really hurts him and if he can't get the fight on the ground he's gonna get picked apart. I guess the question is can he get it to the ground?

[HurlSweatPants]

Anyone see value in Efrain? He's a seasoned, solid fighter. I think he'll be the most solid wrestler Lee has faced (can anyone confirm?) and might be able to grind out a decision. His lack of KO power really hurts him and if he can't get the fight on the ground he's gonna get picked apart. I guess the question is can he get it to the ground?

I don't know much about Lee, the over looks great but not at -210. Looking at Lee's stats he is either going to submit you (less than 50%) or win a decision.

[bjpenn85]

Anyone see value in Efrain? He's a seasoned, solid fighter. I think he'll be the most solid wrestler Lee has faced (can anyone confirm?) and might be able to grind out a decision. His lack of KO power really hurts him and if he can't get the fight on the ground he's gonna get picked apart. I guess the question is can he get it to the ground?

Kevin Lee is within 2 years one of the best fighters in the lightweight div. He is really really good. But he startet doing this Nate diaz thing and got caught royally and Koed in his last fight. If Efrain wins its by tko. The chances of him grinding out a decision is 0. Dont waste your money. Remember Kevin Lee was embarrassed out of this world, this is probably the worst performance in ufc history. He will come back with a vengeance. If a fighter underperform he will win big next fight, if hes good and given a favourable matchup. This is classic easy ufc betting principle. Dodsen, horrible performance against DJ, comes back wins big against manvel. These are the rules for good fighters, the fighters with athletic capabilities and athleticism. After title fight, this rule doesnt exist. You can always discredit these rules, but it works as a framework.

[Shagdogy]

Kevin Lee is within 2 years one of the best fighters in the lightweight div. He is really really good. But he startet doing this Nate diaz thing and got caught royally and Koed in his last fight. If Efrain wins its by tko. The chances of him grinding out a decision is 0. Dont waste your money. Remember Kevin Lee was embarrassed out of this world, this is probably the worst performance in ufc history. He will come back with a vengeance. If a fighter underperform he will win big next fight, if hes good and given a favourable matchup. This is classic easy ufc betting principle. Dodsen, horrible performance against DJ, comes back wins big against manvel. These are the rules for good fighters, the fighters with athletic capabilities and athleticism. After title fight, this rule doesnt exist. You can always discredit these rules, but it works as a framework.

I agree he's easily more "talented." Also the bounce back factor off his last loss will be strong. I was just thinking of Efrain being the biggest wrestling test he's faced in the octagon. I hear you though. Not jumping on anything here. I've moved my focus to another fight...

[Shagdogy]

Walt Harris +130?? This is a GIFT. He will MURDER Cody East. Let's see...
1) Better boxer
2) Better athlete
3) Better cardio
4) has UFC experience so won't gas out from adrenaline dump
5) More power
6) Has had success everywhere but UFC. Has a lot of fights and must be hungry to get it rolling finally in big show. Won't waste opportunity.

Hmmm. Am I missing something? I had to familiarize myself with East but now that I did, I'm loving a large play on Harris. This is giving me find flashbacks to way back when Kimbo was fresh off TUF and everyone knew him so he was favored over Meathead. Free money. Someone tell me what I'm missing here. Bout to pound this.

[HurlSweatPants]

Walt Harris +130?? This is a GIFT. He will MURDER Cody East. Let's see...
1) Better boxer
2) Better athlete
3) Better cardio
4) has UFC experience so won't gas out from adrenaline dump
5) More power
6) Has had success everywhere but UFC. Has a lot of fights and must be hungry to get it rolling finally in big show. Won't waste opportunity.

Hmmm. Am I missing something? I had to familiarize myself with East but now that I did, I'm loving a large play on Harris. This is giving me find flashbacks to way back when Kimbo was fresh off TUF and everyone knew him so he was favored over Meathead. Free money. Someone tell me what I'm missing here. Bout to pound this.

I'm with you I already put a unit on it to get it at a good price before the line breaks even.

[JoshKnows46]

Kevin Lee is within 2 years one of the best fighters in the lightweight div. He is really really good. But he startet doing this Nate diaz thing and got caught royally and Koed in his last fight. If Efrain wins its by tko. The chances of him grinding out a decision is 0. Dont waste your money. Remember Kevin Lee was embarrassed out of this world, this is probably the worst performance in ufc history. He will come back with a vengeance. If a fighter underperform he will win big next fight, if hes good and given a favourable matchup. This is classic easy ufc betting principle. Dodsen, horrible performance against DJ, comes back wins big against manvel. These are the rules for good fighters, the fighters with athletic capabilities and athleticism. After title fight, this rule doesnt exist. You can always discredit these rules, but it works as a framework.

Kevin Lee was begging for the kabib fight on twitter, smart move by the ufc not giving kabib that fight as his first fight back, he's legit, will be a future top 5 in the division, but I'm not laying 400 on such a young kid, hoping the line drops significantly, but hard to see him losing, thought it would open alot lower, disappointing.

[JoshKnows46]

I agree he's easily more "talented." Also the bounce back factor off his last loss will be strong. I was just thinking of Efrain being the biggest wrestling test he's faced in the octagon. I hear you though. Not jumping on anything here. I've moved my focus to another fight...

He's a better wrestler than efrain, efrain would need to get a flash knockout, he's better everywhere and will deside where the fight takes place.

[bjpenn85]

I'm with you I already put a unit on it to get it at a good price before the line breaks even.

The rationale is that cody east has a lot of KO victories in round 1 and has a 12-1 record. But most guys he has fought has almost not won a fight. 3-4 , 3-2. Hes only fought tony lopez and he didnt show anything in that fight. Harris lost to Soa palelei, which also suck, but for heavy weight standard palelei is almost a top prospect in the ufc until he lost against silva. If you just look at how these to guys stack up from a skille stand point, iits really shows that harris is the more polished fighter. Layoff is the only factor plays against harris and also that this is a heavy weight fight where everything may go wrong so you cant lay a huge number. But the fight should be -130 not +160 or +135. I had the feeling Kalikas would fakk up this line.

[Shagdogy]

East has pillows for hands. He throws 4 punches before he can barely breathe any longer. The only thing with even a little snap is his leg kicks. Well that won't be enough. Harris has sooo much more speed and athleticism. I don't think layoff plays in to it either because East has never fought in the UFC and will have those "octagon jitters." Harris all the way.

[JIBBBY]

Mmamania part 1 prelims.. Decent basic info to digest.. (copy and paste) Too lazy to attach sherdog links and current odds.. That's what google is for..

UFC 197 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1

By Patrick L. Stumberg on Apr 18, 2016, 10:00p 5

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports


More fights are coming to Fight Pass and FOX Sports 1 this weekend (Sat., April 23, 2016) when UFC 197: “Jones vs. Saint Preux” kicks off from MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas






265 lbs.: Cody East vs. Walt Harris
Cody East (12-1), the latest product of Dana White’s "Lookin’ for a Fight," enters UFC having won both the King of the Cage and Legacy FC Heavyweight titles in the past. "The Freight Train" has won nine straight since a 2012 loss to Tony Lopez.
He’s stopped 11 opponents, eight via knockout.
The first run for Walt Harris (7-4) in UFC ended after two losses in two fights, including a knockout defeat to Nikita Krylov in Jan. 2014. He returned after a knockout of D.J. Linderman as a late replacement against Soa Palelei, who pounded out "The Big Ticket" in the second round.
All seven of his wins have come by first-round knockout.
This one’s a toss up -- both men are big, powerful athletes with one-punch finishing ability. That said, Harris has struggled to put it all together in UFC and East has demonstrated some decently slick striking, which has me leaning toward the promotional newcomer.
East’s body attack and patience may be the key here. He has very nice snap kick to the midsection and a very measured approach to putting away hurt opponents. Harris is likely the bigger and stronger man, but East’s consistency cleaner offense should carry the day. Expect the stoppage late in the first round or early in the second.
Prediction: East by second-round technical knockout

205 lbs.: Clint Hester vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

The loss for Clint Hester (11-5) on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17 gave way to four straight UFC victories, including a decision over oft-injured, but blue-chip prospect, Antonio Braga Neto. "Headbussa" has since lost two straight, suffering knockout losses to Robert Whittaker and Vitor Miranda.
This will be his first fight at Light Heavyweight in around four years.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-3-1) guillotined former Bellator competitor Thiago Santos to earn a spot in TUF: "Brazil 3" and managed to reach the semifinals before falling to eventual winner Antonio Carlos Jr. He opened his UFC career with a pair of quick knockouts, then tapped to a rear-naked choke from Nikita Krylov in Aug. 2015.
"Pezao" has stopped 12 opponents, 10 of them via knockout.
"Pezao’s" got some bonkers power and good offense, but seems to struggle with his fight IQ. Luckily, Hester is in the same boat. Despite the latter’s boxing experience, he’s more a brawler than anything else, an approach I expect diminishing returns from against the bigger bruisers at Light Heavyweight.
If Hester comes out purely looking to wrestle, he might have a chance of grinding the Brazilian out. Unfortunately, he leaves his chin out far too much against a hitter of Rogerio’s caliber. "Pezao" sparks him out partway through the first.
Prediction: Rogerio de Lima by first-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee

TUF 8 winner Efrain Escudero's (24-10) on-and-off relationship with UFC continued in 2014, when he rejoined the organization once again and lost a decision to Leonardo Santos. He proceeded to defeat Rodrigo "Monstro" and Drew Dober before running afoul of Leandro Silva in Nov. 2015.
He has submitted 13 opponents as a professional and been stopped just twice.
Kevin Lee (11-2) began his UFC career with a decision loss to Al Iaquinta despite spending the entire second round on "Ragin’ Al’s" back. Almost two years later, "The Motown Phenom" squared off with Leonardo Santos having won four straight, but suffered a shocking knockout loss midway through the first round.
Five of his 11 wins have come by submission.
It’s an uphill batter for Escudero, who’s facing a superior striker and wrestler. The same was said of Leonardo Santos, of course, but I wouldn’t put faith in "Motown Phenom" getting caught again. The 23-year-old is improving rapidly fight-to-fight, while Escudero seems to have plateaued.
Unless Escudero can find some means to get on top of Lee for an extended period of time, he has a long night ahead of him. Lee controls every area of the fight for a dominant decision win.
Prediction: Lee by unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

UFC 197 predictions: FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2

By Patrick L. Stumberg on Apr 19, 2016, 10:00p +

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

125 lbs.: Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades
Sergio Pettis (13-2) returned to Flyweight following a 3-1 start to his UFC career, only to suffer a knockout loss to Ryan Benoit. "The Phenom" righted the ship in Oct. 2015 with a decision over former title challenger Chris Cariaso.
He has stopped six opponents overall, although his last four wins have all come by decision.
Following his debut win over Patty Holohan, Chris Kelades (9-2) stepped right into the deep end for a clash with top prospect Ray Borg that saw "The Greek Assassin" tap to a third-round keylock. He returned to action in July 2015 with a split decision over The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 competitor Chris Beal, his third win in four fights.
He has stopped five opponents overall, three via submission.
Pettis’ ceiling might be determined by his chin -- he’s an excellent striker, terrific grappler and an underrated wrestler. He has also been dropped repeatedly throughout his time in UFC, including against middling punchers in Alex Caceres and Matt Hobar.
Luckily, Pettis has Kelades fairly well outclassed in every area. Barring another unfortunate chin-checking, he should be able to soundly dominate whether he wishes to strike or grapple.
Prediction: Pettis via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima

Carla Esparza (10-3) -- who left Invicta as their Strawweight champion -- ran through the competition on TUF 20 before submitting Rose Namajunas on the Finale to earn the UFC title. Her first title defense pitted her against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who battered her from pillar to post en route to a second-round knockout.
"Cookie Monster" replaces Jessica Aguilar on less than one month’s notice.
Juliana Lima (8-2) opened her UFC career against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who handed the Brazilian her second loss in three fights. "Ju Thai" has won twice since and was booked to face Jessica Penne at UFC Fight Night 67 before the latter stepped up for a short-notice title fight.
She stands four inches taller than Esparza at 5’5".
This is one of those fights that’s interesting in theory, but will likely suck to watch. Both women are primarily wrestlers without significant striking skills. There’s a good chance we’ll wind up with protracted clinch exchanges interspersed with inconsequential stand up.
Esparza’s the more experienced of the two against high-level competition and likely has the overall grappling edge. "Cookie Monster" should win enough striking exchanges and spend enough time in favorable positions to edge the decision.
Prediction: Esparza via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele

A five-fight win streak, capped off by a brutal knockout of veteran Jim Wallhead, brought Danny Roberts (12-1) to UFC, where he debuted against American Top Team’s Nathan Coy. Though a striker by trade, Roberts demonstrated his grappling chops with a first-round submission of "Soulforce."
He has knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.
Dominique Steele (14-6) -- who has fought in Strikeforce and Bellator MMA in the past -- joined UFC as a late-notice replacement for Antonio Braga Neto and promptly got his block knocked off by Zak Cummings. Things went a little better for "Non-Stop Action Packed" in Nov. 2015, when he scored a knockout slam on Dong Hyun "No, Not That One" Kim.
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’10" Roberts.
This should be fun while it lasts, which isn’t going to be very long. Steele’s aggressive and entertaining, but nowhere near durable enough to withstand the kind of punishment that Roberts can dish out. "Non-Stop Action Packed" has already been knocked out four times as a professional.
You can be game all day, but it doesn’t matter if your body doesn’t hold up. Expect a fun few minutes of action before Roberts clips Steele with something nasty for the early finish.
Prediction: Roberts via first-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: James Vick vs. Glaico Franca

The run for James Vick (8-0) on TUF: 15 came to a halt at the hands of Michael Chiesa, who stopped the lanky Texan with ground-and-pound in the semifinals. He’s since won four straight in UFC, most recently submitting top Aussie prospect Jake Matthews in May 2015.
He stands three inches taller than the 6’0" Glaico Franca (13-3).
As Team Shogun’s second Lightweight pick, "Nego" submitted his way through TUF: "Brazil 4" to face Fernando Bruno at UFC 190. Though it wasn’t the most entertaining fight, Franco ultimately locked up his favored rear-naked choke in the last 30 seconds for his tenth win in 11 fights.
He’s stopped 10 opponents overall, five each by knockout and submission.
I’d still like to see Vick against a powerhouse striker before I tab him as a future contender, but he’s acquitted himself quite well against other grapplers. Franca, though young and strong, ostensibly doesn’t present any difficulties that Vick didn’t already overcome against Matthews.
On the feet, Vick’s sheer length ought to be enough to keep him out of trouble even considering his general lack of stopping power. Depending on how desperate Franca gets for the takedown, expect Vick to either sprawl-and-brawl his way to a decision or lock up that guillotine he’s fond of.
Prediction: Vick via unanimous decision

[JoshKnows46]

East has pillows for hands. He throws 4 punches before he can barely breathe any longer. The only thing with even a little snap is his leg kicks. Well that won't be enough. Harris has sooo much more speed and athleticism. I don't think layoff plays in to it either because East has never fought in the UFC and will have those "octagon jitters." Harris all the way.

I agree, he's trash..

[CaptChaos145]

I think Walt Harris is a decent bet. I got him @ +160, but +130 is still value. Walt Harris was actually a golden gloves champion is bigger, better athlete, quicker, fought best competition, and have decent enough takedown defence to keep the fight upright. Except from being out one and a half year he has most advantages. Worth a small bet. Hot chocolate is the easy pick of the card, hes given an favourabe matchup. He often gets taken down, but hes usually able to scramble or submit people from his back. Easy parlay filler with jones and DJ.

I'm pretty sure this kid Cody East is the guy Dana found on the "looking for a fighter" show. He's young and pretty athletic for a big kid but it's also his UFC debut. Harris has been in the UFC for a while. It's hard to see what Cody's all about yet but I'd take Harris as the dog cause when the fight is over he may prove to be the better fighter after all.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Walt Harris hasn't had much luck in the UFC.. This fight seems sketchy to me.. Liking the under rounds bet but not the odds on it.. Waiting this one out til the last minute.. Check weigh ins and learn more leading up...

[bjpenn85]

DJ linderman, anthony hamilton..walt harris has at least some guys. Cody east has defeated whom? And he looked terrible in fights with really....really bad opposition.

But cody east has something that Harris doesnt, heart and will. The longer the fight goes, i think it favours Cody East.

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

3 DAYS AWAY.. Chalk it up boys!!! Bringing home the bacon with this event..

I do like this quick turn over with the UFC events.. I always said the UFC should have an event going on every weekend, if they don't they are losing money and the fans are losing out.. UFC Fighters losing out too..

Shame on Zuffa and team.. STEP UP YOUR GAME and fill that calendar, you owe it to the sport since you monopolized it....

[Snoman]

It pretty much is every weekend at this point, save for the occasional saturday off now and again. Get the odd sat night to kick back and chill ain't terrible

[Shagdogy]

DJ linderman, anthony hamilton..walt harris has at least some guys. Cody east has defeated whom? And he looked terrible in fights with really....really bad opposition.

But cody east has something that Harris doesnt, heart and will. The longer the fight goes, i think it favours Cody East.

How do we know East's heart and will? He hasn't fought a guy with enough cardio to last half a round. Any of his fights that have gone longer his opponent is just a punching bag standing still in the ring and East STILL needs 45 punches to drop him.

[CaptChaos145]

		$50.00	$467.42	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Ovince Saint Preux
				Pending	4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Demetrious Johnson -400* vs Henry Cejudo
				Pending	4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Robert Whittaker -310* vs Rafael Natal
				Pending	4/23/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Walt Harris +140* vs Cody East
				Pending	4/23/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -135* vs Clint Hester
				Pending	4/23/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Kevin Lee -335* vs Efrain Escudero

[bjpenn85]

How do we know East's heart and will? He hasn't fought a guy with enough cardio to last half a round. Any of his fights that have gone longer his opponent is just a punching bag standing still in the ring and East STILL needs 45 punches to drop him.

Its always a good sign of a fighters will when the ref has to stop the fight standing up, that happened against tony lopez. I agree with what you said, its very hard to analyse without any "data" at hand. Odds is wrong anyway.

[JIBBBY]

It pretty much is every weekend at this point, save for the occasional saturday off now and again. Get the odd sat night to kick back and chill ain't terrible

Blasphemy!!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

		$50.00	$467.42	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Ovince Saint Preux
				Pending	4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Demetrious Johnson -400* vs Henry Cejudo
				Pending	4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Robert Whittaker -310* vs Rafael Natal
				Pending	4/23/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Walt Harris +140* vs Cody East
				Pending	4/23/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -135* vs Clint Hester
				Pending	4/23/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Kevin Lee -335* vs Efrain Escudero

Looks money to me. I wonder why odds on DJ are dropping. He seems close to a lock in this matchup

[bjpenn85]

Looks money to me. I wonder why odds on DJ are dropping. He seems close to a lock in this matchup

Henry Cejudo has that pedigree which makes people forget its not the olympic wrestling finals. Bookies win money cause people are stupid, quite frankly.

[CaptChaos145]

		$50.00	$467.42	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	4/23/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -650* vs Ovince Saint Preux
				Pending	4/23/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Demetrious Johnson -400* vs Henry Cejudo
				Pending	4/23/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Robert Whittaker -310* vs Rafael Natal
				Pending	4/23/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1901 Walt Harris +140* vs Cody East
				Pending	4/23/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Marcos Rogerio de Lima -135* vs Clint Hester
				Pending	4/23/16 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Kevin Lee -335* vs Efrain Escudero

[Mxs1332]

Henry Cejudo has that pedigree which makes people forget its not the olympic wrestling finals. Bookies win money cause people are stupid, quite frankly.

To me this is the Flyweight divisions last chance to put a stop to DJ. If DJ beats Cejudo which I think he will, we wont see anyone beating him for a few more years at least.

DJ is light years quicker than Cejudo and I bet he fks him up. He's on a total other level. He's a martian !