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That's your problem, you base your bets on what happen Last fight, like the majority of losing gamblers. This is a main reason your always one step behind, you dont watch fights each event, just go off memory of the last fight, becayse thats as far back as u can remember. Alex Olivera isn't Rda.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Exactly Olivera knows he needs to keep this standing, but thing is, he can't even fuk with Cowboy on the feet and whenever cowboy wants, he can easily take Olivera down and sub him, this is the easiest fight to predict on the card.
Cowboy has never lost 2 fights in a row in his 35 fight career. This talk that Olivera is more hungry, is Just that, talk..it's unfounded. Cowboy is a slow starter, but Olivera doesn't have the experience against this level of striker, nor skill to take advantage of it, Olivera will be stopped in the 2nd round of this fight.
only possible hedge would be AO in the 1st round IMO. Wonder what that will come out at
Should be high, but I wouldn't bother with a hedge in this one, cowboy will do enough in the first with leg kicks and his quicker movement to freeze Olivera up, and keep him offbalancd,and then put it on him in the 2nd once he has his distance down. Olivera has nothing for him.
Good call on the leg kicks, Josh. Those should come into play from the get go if Greg Jackson has coached him up properly. Anyone know where Cerrone's head is at for this one?
We'll see which Cowboy wins then...
You boys are all going down and paying a heavy -300 price in the process. I'll wait and nail down Alex Oli at +300 for the straight win come fight time along with the ITD prop at around +500 and then I'll be laughing all the way to the bank after the fight is over...Probably risk $100 on each bet to win $800 in total x's 3 or 4 books..
I won't even hedge this fight because Cowboy Cerrone can win several ways if it's ment to be.. He's too well rounded to hedge..
Donald will be game standing early on, scoring kicks and soft punches as always but when the larger and stronger AO starts landing counter bombs it'll then be good night Irene!!! Ya all will be saying to yourselves I wished I listened to Jibbby on this one at those +odds..
Cowboy Cerrone I think will start racking up losses now.. Heart is not in it, training less these days, doesn't care about making another title run, job security is set win or lose with Zuffa.. I don't see the hunger anymore with Ronald McDonald, Etc.. Etc...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-12-16 at 02:26 AM.
Jibby, convenient you skipped over my bet....u chickening out?, no nuts?,no confidents in your boy?
Changing an Avatar pic is not a bet or an option...
DM is one of my favorite fighters, he was made to look stupid against Anderson Silva when fighting for the title years ago.. He's getting older now at age 38 and still has found ways to improve his striking and TD's as shown in his last 4 wins.. A testament to his hard work and determination to the sport and to get in line for that next title shot.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637
Been riding D Maia for a couple of years now and all that dude does is win me big money.. Cleaned up when he beat Magny and then Gunnar Nelson in his last couple fights.. I felt compelled to make him my avatar pic and it will remain that way until he loses.. Think of another bet there chief...
I guess we can't play with bet points because you're still paying me off from your last bet loss so that is not an option either...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-11-16 at 09:31 PM.
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd3krpI2MNM
Coward
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 02-11-16 at 09:12 PM.
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Once upon a time there was Cowboy Cerrone and his chin... Gonna get touched up in this one I tell thee all!!!
Always one step behind jibbers, you have to be hands down the worse mma handicapper I've ever come in contact with. Lol and that's saying a mouth full. Horrible horrible play here, zero chance you win this, so don't talk it up too much.Once upon a time there was Cowboy Cerrone and his chin... Gonna get touched up in this one I tell thee all!!!
I may be the worst MMA handicapper in history Joshy but I sure haven't played only 2 fights on this card for -300 each.. That is recipe for disaster son.. While I do like Derrick Brunson and you should hit that, Donald Cerrone will lose and you will lose everything....
Good luck with that poorlay master MMA capper
I may be the worst MMA handicapper in history Joshy but I sure haven't played only 2 fights on this card for -300 each.. That is recipe for disaster son.. While I do like Derrick Brunson and you should hit that, Donald Cerrone will lose and you will lose everything....
Good luck with that poorlay master MMA capper
Hahaha you crack me up...., i bet where the value is jibby, you wouldn't understand.
First card since UFC 2 that features 14 fights. Going to be glued to couch for about 6 hours this card
Yep full week of capping coming up next week..
Glad I've done a few of the fights already. Wish I would have done more but oh well.
Value in Siyar IMO...
Garcia VS strickland is a hell of a fight IMO----WOWZA
Leans-Cerrone, Brunson, Bermudez, Bahadurzada, Campbell, Garcia --Need to See Some LINES!!
Locked in on Cerrone, Brunson, and Lineker. Checking out the Bermudez fight now. His takedown defense is amazing at over 90%. This is a fight where I'm afraid you can get information overload because both guys have been around the block, but I think it's reasonable to say that Bermudez is the better wrestler (especially defensive) in this fight. I'm not sure either guy will be able to have their way like they normally do and get into the GnP but Bermudez certainly has the better shot of doing that IMO. He's also the better striker on the feet in this fight IMO. Going to have to rewatch the Stephens fight because I was absolutely blitzed off a 110+ ounce beer tube that tube plus copious amounts of vodka. From what I remember, Bermudez got chewed up in the later rounds when he couldn't get the fight to the ground, but Stephens hits like a truck and is one of the better strikers in the division. Thinking of making a small play on Bermudez ML or maybe a parlay piece as of now.
If you can not bet a fighter straight, then you shouldn't have him in a parlay, it comes out to the same thing. Bermudez and thatch both have no bussiness being over -200 in these matchups. I see them winning, but we don't over pay. The bets you don't make are just as important as the bets you do make. People fall in love with numbers, and try to find any justification to lay a. Big favorite, this is a mistake. I'm more hesitant to lay a big number then I am a huge underdog, if I'm laying 300, as I'm doing in two matchups this card, you better bet your ass those guys have multiple paths to victory, good situations, and there opps have no path to victory, for example brunson should be favored by -700 and cerrone should be favored by -900, these two guys are locks, thatch and Bermudez are not..the other two fights both should be even money, and are toss ups...so far the lines makers are very spot on with this card, only making two glaring mistakes with the cerrone and brunson lines. I also don't bet underdogs unless I have them favored to win or its close to even and I'm getting a big number, none of the other 4 fights warrented a bet. Remember the bets you don't make are just as imprtant as the bets you do make, do not cut into your profit by trying to bet every fight like a square when it's not warrented, in line and in the fighter.Hoping for a couple more line fuk ups on the undercard.
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 02-13-16 at 12:36 AM.
Curious where you see an edge for the Asian in the bermudez fight
This should be a very ugly fight. The over may actually be the better play. The asian is a grinding type lay and pray guy unless he gets a lucky break and a chance at a sub or can rain down ground and pound. I can't see him being able to do any of that against Dennis. He could theoretically clip him on the feet but he isn't that kind of striker IMO. At -135 for going the distance, I think I'll be on that as well.
You answered your own question, I Have Bermudez winning As well, but it's not as cut and try as the odds portray, think your letting the big Number cloud Your judgement when you say He can't do That to bermudez, tough grinders make good underdog plays, this guy isn't outmatched Anywhere, probable looking at a dec, split dec either way, is that something you want to lay those odds at, with mma judging, bermudez is the fav of -185, don't get Me wrong, name value is the only reason I see why the lines so much higher than that, could he win yes, could he lose yes.....on the bermudez,thatch,krause,, lineker if I had to bet every fighter straight of those 4, i'd bet every favorite, but with the odds, I'd bet against all 4 favorites, and I'd probable come out with more money, what I'm saying is the linesmakers did a pretty. Damn good job of setting these lines, I like all the favorites to win, but not at the prices. Krause and lineker fights are clear 50 50 fights, should both be even money, thatch and Bermudez should be -185, there's no value to be had in any of these fights, if I were to bet these 4 fights, I'd expect to go 2-2 at best lol...this is just my opinion, I'm ready to see the other lines.
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 02-13-16 at 10:25 AM.
so no opinion on the fight going the distance at close to even money? I've already locked in Lineker at -140. I think the fight is closer to 60-40 than 50-50 but thats just me.
I did mention it above, it probable ends in dec, or split dec 70 percent of the time, that's a good price, and as you mentioned the best bet you can make on This fight. Lineker will be fighting the clock, I believe he finishes 50 percent of the time, 50 percent of the time he loses a dec.
I think youre completly wrong here. Did you see how bad bermudez beat guida? this is simple mma math were it actually works because kawajiri cant win a fight by striking. No fancy smancy explaination is needed. Dude cant strike, dude cant win. Bermudez wins easily. I watched all the types and broken shit down. Trust me on this one. TPowell is 100% correct.
Tough grinders are great underdog bets but when they face similar fighters who are more talented, I think it'll be a competitive fight but when it goes to the judges cards, I think Bermudez will be the clear winner. I get what Josh is saying though. Better to take the easy distance play than Bermudez if you think it goes the distance.
I clearly have bermudez as the fav of -185, but he can lose this fight.so the question is are you laying the very over inflated line, or you gonna play the Value of the underdog, or u betting bermudez itd, or bermudez by dec? How you gonna play it? This is the definition on a no play..
If I was to bet it, I'd bet the plus money....if my life depended on it, I'd bet bermudez.
Anybody else liking Shane Campbell? Krause is 2-3 in his last 5 fights and one was an injury KO when Jamie Varner broke his ankle and the other was a sub over Cruikshank who has been subbed by everyone lately. On the other side, Campbell won a decision over Silverio in his last fight. Of course, Silverio won the first round and then gassed but still. My only concern is the sub from Krause in this fight. May be a bet and hedge here
So how does he loose, by grappling? So if Bermudez for some reason want to wrestle with kawajiri, something he didnt do, against guida, because hes smart enough, then he can loose. But im not going to be that negative when he has already proved to follow this gameplan before and win easily. You say its a def of a no play, i say thats your opinion.
You Didn't Answer My question, how are you betting it? AND If you read my other. Post, I mentioned this is just my opinion, just as it is your opinion to lay 4-1 on a favorite that shouldn't even be 2 to 1. I remember you saying the same thing about pettis against alverez, and I clearly won 1200 on plus 400 alverez by dec.....weather you win or lose, bermudez is a horrible bet at current odds, and you'll lose in the long run making these plays. But hey you think you know more the JoshKnows, the fukin best, then go right ahead and lay those odds
Last edited by JoshKnows46; 02-13-16 at 11:28 AM.
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