[UncleChael]

As far as Arlovski's chin goes, he ate some bombs in this fight.

Against the guy who can knock anyone out.. Lol

[JIBBBY]

In the first fight Dodson did gas late and almost got finished in that 5th and final round with strikes..

I'm on Dodson but if I were on Mighty Mouse Johnson I'd be thinking about one of these 2 props or both... Might even be worth a hedge play perhaps????? Just sharing ideas as we are leading up...

Sat 9/5		1031 Johnson wins in round 4		+1375
11:58PM		1032 Any other result		-3425
Sat 9/5		1033 Johnson wins in round 5		+1875
11:58PM		1034 Any other result		-5625

[Sanity Check]

^^^Sanity AA was literally saved by the bell at the end of round 1 in that Rumble fight.. Rumble was a blown up 205er in that fight as well.. Just fast forward to minute 8:35.. Still a miracle that fight went the distance...

Tough to tell how rocked Arlovski was at the end of the 1st. Defensively, AA seemed conscious of everything going on around him and made all the right moves. AA fought back hard in the 2nd and 3rd. In the mid and latter rounds it was Rumble shooting for takedowns to avoid standing with Arlovski. A lot of 205'ers walk around at 240-250. They practically are heavyweights. Rampage has been known to balloon up to 250 when he's not fighting. I think I heard the commentator say there was only a 14 pound weight difference between Rumble and AA at the weigh ins when they fought.

If AA can take a shot like that from Rumble, survive and come back and make Rumble shoot for takedowns to avoid standing with him. It makes me doubt Mir will be able to do anything to AA. I doubt Mir is as explosive or as hard a puncher as Rumble is.

One thing Mir has going for him is his southpaw stance. That's one thing that allowed him to fare well against Junios Dos Santos for a time. Mir cracked JDS with two clean left hands in the 1st round, but didn't have the power to do anything other than make JDS turn the intensity up a notch. Whether or not he has the power to get AA's respect is questionable.

In the first fight Dodson did gas late and almost got finished in that 5th and final round with strikes..

I'm on Dodson but if I were on Mighty Mouse Johnson I'd be thinking about one of these 2 props or both... Might even be worth a hedge play perhaps????? Just sharing ideas as we are leading up...

Sat 9/5		1031 Johnson wins in round 4		+1375
11:58PM		1032 Any other result		-3425
Sat 9/5		1033 Johnson wins in round 5		+1875
11:58PM		1034 Any other result		-5625

I think DJ will finish Dodson inside the distance.

Dodson hasn't shown any improvement that I've noticed.

[UncleChael]

^ u can get MM +1800 r4 and +2200 r5 on Bet365, FUKKING take it!!!

[mirinquads]

One thing Mir has going for him is his southpaw stance. That's one thing that allowed him to fare well against Junios Dos Santos for a time. Mir cracked JDS with two clean left hands in the 1st round, but didn't have the power to do anything other than make JDS turn the intensity up a notch. Whether or not he has the power to get AA's respect is questionable.

Honestly think that will be more of an advantage for AA. True that he hasn't fought many southpaws, but his straight right, FAR and away his best strike, and one of the best in the sport, should in theory be easier to hit in an open stance matchup, provided you know how of course.

[TheCalculator]

In the first fight Dodson did gas late and almost got finished in that 5th and final round with strikes..

I'm on Dodson but if I were on Mighty Mouse Johnson I'd be thinking about one of these 2 props or both... Might even be worth a hedge play perhaps????? Just sharing ideas as we are leading up...

Sat 9/5		1031 Johnson wins in round 4		+1375
11:58PM		1032 Any other result		-3425
Sat 9/5		1033 Johnson wins in round 5		+1875
11:58PM		1034 Any other result		-5625

Pounded it.

[Sanity Check]

Honestly think that will be more of an advantage for AA. True that he hasn't fought many southpaws, but his straight right, FAR and away his best strike, and one of the best in the sport, should in theory be easier to hit in an open stance matchup, provided you know how of course.

Aye. Traditional boxing wisdom says the straight right and left hook are the best weapons against a southpaw. Mayweather demonstrated this using his straight right against Pacquiao. I'm not sure how well boxing IQ translates to MMA. With knees, elbows and kicks it may be that traditional boxing wisdom is flipped on its head at times. Circling away from the power hand in boxing, could open up the power kick in terms of kickboxing. CB Dollaway circling away from the power hand of Machida might have created an opportunity for that perfect body kick Machida used to finish him.

In boxing the right hand and left hook are the go to counters for southpaws. But it could be that in MMA the straight right and left hook against a southpaw creates opportunities for a southpaw to throw the power kick to the body and head. Anthony Pettis might have showed that a few times. Joe Lauzon tried to counter southpaw Pettis with the traditional boxing right hand/left hook, Pettis countered with the left power kick to the head and finished him. Pettis might have finished Cowboy in similar fashion. In some ways MMA might still be in its infancy, it could be too early to tell exactly how a southpaw facing off against a regular stance fighter will play out or what counters are best.

We definitely know what counters are considered the go to's in boxing. But do kicks and other strikes change the conventional boxing wisdom in MMA? That could be something that is tough to answer atm.

[mirinquads]

The dynamic doesn't change that much. The power body/head kick is obviously way more open, and an advantage as southpaw, as the kick will be slamming into the liver area. (As you have seen Pettis and Petrosyan throw a lot, Pettis with more devastating results..) On the flipside, the Orthodox fighter can straight punch better at the opposing liver. Outside legkicks become easier to check. Mir actually throws a nice powerful bodykick, but if he tries to throw it, he can get countered by a straight.. Trying to counter with the kick is ill advised generally.
Besides, Mir doesn't really pay much attention to his position in the cage, wouldn't be surprised if AA quickly got him on the cage, making countering and kicking even harder, much like he did to Browne.
MMA is ofcourse different, but the striking dynamic isn't much different than kickboxing. Things change a bit with the cage and different positioning, but strikes, counters etc are basically the same.

[UncleChael]

MM is hilarious. Dodson's baby is born. Cerrone at the end. I love fights.

[UncleChael]

Ross Pearson or Frank Mir will probably play spoiler.. but it's gonna be awesome to watch.

[Sanity Check]

The dynamic doesn't change that much. The power body/head kick is obviously way more open, and an advantage as southpaw, as the kick will be slamming into the liver area. (As you have seen Pettis and Petrosyan throw a lot, Pettis with more devastating results..) On the flipside, the Orthodox fighter can straight punch better at the opposing liver. Outside legkicks become easier to check. Mir actually throws a nice powerful bodykick, but if he tries to throw it, he can get countered by a straight.. Trying to counter with the kick is ill advised generally.
Besides, Mir doesn't really pay much attention to his position in the cage, wouldn't be surprised if AA quickly got him on the cage, making countering and kicking even harder, much like he did to Browne.
MMA is ofcourse different, but the striking dynamic isn't much different than kickboxing. Things change a bit with the cage and different positioning, but strikes, counters etc are basically the same.

In some cases conventional boxing and kickboxing wisdom might be complete opposites.

I'll give you an example. Lyoto Machida vs CB Dolloway. Throughout the fight CB circles to his left, away from Machida's power left hand, this is what traditional boxing wisdom says is best. CB circling to his left prevents Machida from hitting Dolloway with his power left hand but it doesn't prevent Machida from using his power left kick and finishing CB with a left kick liver shot. It might be said that CB circling to his left actually makes it easier for Machida to land his power left kick than if CB were circling to his right.

If that's true it means circling in the direction that makes it hard for someone to hit you with their power rear hand, makes it easier for them to hit you with their power rear leg. That would mean that some things that are generally accepted practices that work in boxing are actually the opposite in kickboxing or MMA.

Another example could be boxers who duck down or bend at the waist to avoid punches. That might work in boxing but in MMA ducking down could mean ducking straight into a knee. Example of that is Brad Pickett vs Thomas Almeida. Pickett ducked down to avoid strikes -- this is something boxers consider to be a good practice, causing Pickett's face to directly collide with Thomas Almeida's knee. Boom. Fight is over. Boxers who bob and weave could be more susceptible to uppercuts. But I can't think of a decent example of someone exploiting in that boxing. For whatever reason its something more people seem to fall prey to in MMA than boxing.

In that sense things that work in boxing or are considered conventional boxing wisdom could actually be bad or the complete opposite in MMA. I guess time will tell.

[mirinquads]

...That's still exactly what would happen in a kickboxing match...

I mean obviously things aren't the same in boxing. Completely different sport. But which punches are good in an open stance matchup doesn't change, just means there are more things to watch out for.

[Sanity Check]

How far Arlovski and Dodson have come.

[Thor4140]

The dynamic doesn't change that much. The power body/head kick is obviously way more open, and an advantage as southpaw, as the kick will be slamming into the liver area. (As you have seen Pettis and Petrosyan throw a lot, Pettis with more devastating results..) On the flipside, the Orthodox fighter can straight punch better at the opposing liver. Outside legkicks become easier to check. Mir actually throws a nice powerful bodykick, but if he tries to throw it, he can get countered by a straight.. Trying to counter with the kick is ill advised generally.
Besides, Mir doesn't really pay much attention to his position in the cage, wouldn't be surprised if AA quickly got him on the cage, making countering and kicking even harder, much like he did to Browne.
MMA is ofcourse different, but the striking dynamic isn't much different than kickboxing. Things change a bit with the cage and different positioning, but strikes, counters etc are basically the same.

Some nice stuff the two of u are talking about.

[mirinquads]

...That's still exactly what would happen in a kickboxing match...

I mean obviously things aren't the same in boxing. Completely different sport. But which punches are good in an open stance matchup doesn't change, just means there are more things to watch out for.

You're totally correct that the game changes from pure striking to MMA though. Of course due to the threat of the takedown, can't always kick/knee as liberally, but more so the cage instead of the ring makes a massive difference in positioning, makes it much harder to cut off and harder to trap people in the corner's and tee off, something Crocop had massive success with in both KB and Pride, but he struggled with in a cage, which diminished his game quite a bit.
Conversely, I don't think Cain's game would work at all in a ring, as he can't just grab an underhook, hold you on the cage and bang away, which was evident against Werdum.. When Doom took away that part of his game with the thai clinch, Cain just became a mediocre, hittable kickboxer.

But the kicking thing... I mean, it's not like CB would have gotten murdered by that kick if he had circled the other way. Machida just kicks like a mule on crack, and if you let him hit your soft spots, you're done no matter what.

[Sanity Check]

But the kicking thing... I mean, it's not like CB would have gotten murdered by that kick if he had circled the other way. Machida just kicks like a mule on crack, and if you let him hit your soft spots, you're done no matter what.

If CB circled to his right, he might not have gotten murdered by that kick. Machida might not have been able to get full extension on his hip and knee to generate full power. By circling to his left, CB gave Machida that extra space he needed to get full extension on his kick. Circling in the opposite direction -- opposite effect. CB circling to his left might have been bad for Machida throwing his left hand. But good for Machida throwing his left kick. Essentially when boxing coaches say to circle away from the power hand, they could be setting people up to move in a way that is good to set up the power kick.

If you look at MMA finishes by head kick or body kick, a high percentage of them come from people circling away from the power hand the way boxing coaches would traditionally tell someone to do. Lyoto finished CB Dolloway and Mark Munoz with his left kick. Both were circling to their left in those fights, away from Machida's power hand. The guys Lyoto didn't finish with kicks didn't circle to their left. Anthony Pettis finished Joe Lauzon and Cowboy standing southpaw. Both Lauzon and Cowboy might have been circling to their left away from Pettis' power hand. Et al. I wouldn't claim to be an expert, or speak for anyone on the topic, its just a theory I've had for awhile now that I bring up sometimes when I get bored.

[JIBBBY]

Bleacher reports analysis and betting predictions - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...nd-predictions

Combatpress predictions and breakdowns - http://combatpress.com/2015/08/toe-t...d-predictions/

Bumping this post for anyone that is still on the fence with a few fights.. I'm still struggling with a few in the prelims myself.. I'll have them nailed down tonight.. Just need to watch some more fight vids on each..

Jessica Andrade and Clay Collard are the 2 favorites I'm still on the fence with....

[mirinquads]

I can see your point. But i can't really agree. The reason you see some leftkick knockouts is simply that it's most common to circle to the left. Against vicious bodykicker's like Pettis or Machida you're just going to get wrecked if it hits you clean in the liver, which is why you should be blocking it.
If you circle into the bodykick, you create a collision. Big homie Jack Dempsey put it best in Championship Fighting, if you drop a little baby from a tall building onto the head of a big tough bruisher, tough guy is getting knocked the F out, at the least. (A little graphic, but it does the job).. Baby can't hit him hard, but the collision is created = the damage is bigger. A frontal collision between cars would be way worse than if only one of the cars was in motion.



Machida is a master at this -> Tito moves into the knee strike = impact is doubled. Same thing with Bader. Same concept when circling into a kick.
Also if you know your opponent is going to be circling into the powerside, you can basically just pivot out and a little and still get full or close to full extension on the kick.
Also, boxing trainer's necessarily adhere to a strict "circle away from the powerhand" mantra.. I mean it's kind of common wisdom or whatever, but a lot change it up, especially to inside slip and get on the inside.


I commend you for seeing the pattern though, individual thoughts are a rarity around here these days.

[Sanity Check]

Bumping this post for anyone that is still on the fence with a few fights.. I'm still struggling with a few in the prelims myself.. I'll have them nailed down tonight.. Just need to watch some more fight vids on each..

Jessica Andrade and Clay Collard are the 2 favorites I'm still on the fence with....

Andrade is a blown up 115'er fighting at 135. She might be on PED's given the way she put on muscle mass inbetween her last 2 UFC fights. Andrade has good judo throws, strong takedowns and is hitting a lot harder than she used to with her newly found muscle mass. Racquel is coming off a split decision loss to Holly Holm, but did manage to floor Holm with a right hand in the 3rd and did well imo. If Racquel can avoid being taken down or judo tossed and controlled on the ground, I think she wins this fight. Andrade really did put a noticeable amount of muscle mass on her frame and doesn't seem to move as much as she used to. Andrade being 5'2 against Racquel's 5'7, she gives up enough reach that Racquel will probably pick Andrade apart if Andrade can't get it to the ground. I think it'll come down to whether or not Racquel can defend the takedown/judo toss.

Not remembering too well who Clay Collard and Tiago are. I know Collard is a state boxing champion or something like that. Tiago is taking the fight on late notice? I'm leaning towards Collard but am clueless & don't remember either guy very well.

I can see your point. But i can't really agree. The reason you see some leftkick knockouts is simply that it's most common to circle to the left. Against vicious bodykicker's like Pettis or Machida you're just going to get wrecked if it hits you clean in the liver, which is why you should be blocking it.
If you circle into the bodykick, you create a collision. Big homie Jack Dempsey put it best in Championship Fighting, if you drop a little baby from a tall building onto the head of a big tough bruisher, tough guy is getting knocked the F out, at the least. (A little graphic, but it does the job).. Baby can't hit him hard, but the collision is created = the damage is bigger. A frontal collision between cars would be way worse than if only one of the cars was in motion.



Machida is a master at this -> Tito moves into the knee strike = impact is doubled. Same thing with Bader. Same concept when circling into a kick.
Also, boxing trainer's necessarily adhere to a strict "circle away from the powerhand" mantra.. I mean it's kind of common wisdom or whatever, but a lot change it up, especially to inside slip and get on the inside.

I commend you for seeing the pattern though, individual thoughts are a rarity around here these days.

Same 2 u. ((: Don't forget. Tito was hurt by a knee from Machida. Rashad finished Tito with a knee to the body. Little Nog finished Tito with a body shot. Noticing a pattern here? Tito has a suspect mid section.

Circling into a body kick gives the kicker less space. Boxers can throw short punches that have KO power. But with kicks, its not really possible to throw with full power if they don't have enough space to work with. Its like trying to kick someone when they're at kneeing distance. If they're standing too close its impossible to get leverage. Circling away from the kick gives the kicker all the space they need, circling into the kick deprives them of the space they need to work.

[mirinquads]

Not if you pivot out, and you're feeding the strike free velocity by circling into it. There's a reason the go to defense for a spinning kick is circling out around it. There's a reason that professional kickboxers doesn't circle into the power side. AND if you circle into the powerside, you get much less time to actually react to and defend the kicks and punches like you should be.

If you're aiming to smother the kicker, yes, certainly but still you dont circle directly into the kick. And whether Tito has a suspect mid section or not, you can still see what kind of power the collision produces.

[getlucky2win]

yeah thats good and all. but wht these fights come down to is the hawg. and my mma insiders have told me AA has a huge advantage in that dept.

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins -

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Mir comes in at the 266lbs limit

[JIBBBY]

Frank Mir 266 Arlovski 237

Big 30 pound weight advantage for Mir going in but he looks just a little fat to me.. Sure his gas tank will be limited.. 1st round finish for Mir of bust is gonna be my call..

[mirinquads]

Lol dadbod Muuurr...

[JIBBBY]

It's fight day!!!! Let's make that cheddar fellas!!!!

[Squareguy]

Found out I had $45 in an old BETUS account...not even sure if I can withdraw it since I'm American, but I went with a 4 man Parlay.

Lineker
Blachowicz
Felder
Arlovski

45 to win 216

[JIBBBY]

Found out I had $45 in an old BETUS account...not even sure if I can withdraw it since I'm American, but I went with a 4 man Parlay.

Lineker
Blachowicz
Felder
Arlovski

45 to win 216

I'm an American and have always gotten payouts from Betus.. I see no reason why you shouldn't get paid when trying to cash out at Betus.. They mailed me a gift vissa card and I call in for a payouts and they fill it up everytime, I can use that gift vvisa creedit card at any bank or ATM.. Use it at grocery stores and or gas stations also.. I like that method of payment from Betus... It's faster then getting a check sent by mail..

Good luck with your parlay.. I got one that looks almost similar myself..

PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 09/05/2015 @ 06:30 PM MU [24322] PAUL FELDER -440 (ROSS PEARSON vrs PAUL FELDER) 09/05/2015 @ 06:05 PM MU [24326] JOHN LINEKER -130 (FRANCISCO RIVERA vrs JOHN LINEKER) 09/05/2015 @ 05:30 PM MU [24330] JESSICA ANDRADE -220 (RAQUEL PENNINGTON vrs JESSICA ANDRADE)

100.00

215.80

[UncleChael]

LETS GOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! FIGHT DAY, BOIIIIIIIIII'S!!

[Squareguy]

I'm an American and have always gotten payouts from Betus.. I see no reason why you shouldn't get paid when trying to cash out at Betus.. They mailed me a gift vissa card and I call in for a payouts and they fill it up everytime, I can use that gift vvisa creedit card at any bank or ATM.. Use it at grocery stores and or gas stations also.. I like that method of payment from Betus... It's faster then getting a check sent by mail..

Good luck with your parlay.. I got one that looks almost similar myself..

PARLAY (3 TEAMS) 09/05/2015 @ 06:30 PM MU [24322] PAUL FELDER -440 (ROSS PEARSON vrs PAUL FELDER) 09/05/2015 @ 06:05 PM MU [24326] JOHN LINEKER -130 (FRANCISCO RIVERA vrs JOHN LINEKER) 09/05/2015 @ 05:30 PM MU [24330] JESSICA ANDRADE -220 (RAQUEL PENNINGTON vrs JESSICA ANDRADE)

100.00

215.80

Good luck with yours as well. I really like Lineker to light Rivera up.

[JIBBBY]

Ok here we go fellas, kick off in just a few minutes...

I guess I'm going with this Argentinian dude Malegarie with the more experience in this first bout... 70 to win 50.. Small stuff to start out..

Hitting Joe Riggs up next even though he has the worst luck and can't buy a win in the ufc these days.. 100 bucks to win 140...

Pending9/5/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Nazareno Malegarie -140* vs Joaquim Silva

[spurginobili]

I've got Malegarie by Dec

[JIBBBY]

I've got Malegarie by Dec

You should get this!! I got it 2-1 Malegarie.. We see what the judges think?

[JIBBBY]

30-27 come on.. I don't like that decision.. Let the shady judging begin...

[spurginobili]

30-27 on two cards..my ass