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MMA_Oracle: Plays, Discussions, Bets
I'm going to keep this short and sweet. All bets are to win 1u (low confidence), 2u (medium confidence), or 4u (extreme confidence), not including random props I bet, which will be very small. Not all bets will win but all bets have value. I'd be glad to give my lean on a particular fight/outcome even if I am not betting the fight myself. Join me, MMA_Oracle, in crushing the books
UFN 71 Plays
I feel like there aren't many good spots on this card. It has some value but most cards will have a lot more action. I ended betting all but one fight at UFC 189
Mir/Duffee Wont Start Round 2 (-140) Risk: 1.4u
I'm pretty much on the boat of fading Frank Mir. Outside of beating Bigfoot who is a shell of himself now, Mir hasn't won a fight in a long time. More so, Duffee is the type of fighter that has given Frank problems in the past (faster, more athletic, harder hitter). With that being said, it's nuts to back Duffee as a 2:1 favorite with the chin and cardio issues that Duffee has shown in the past. Frank seems to have his crafty little moments on the feet and on the ground.
Ferguson by Decision (+170) Risk: 0.6u
As much as I like winning money, I hope I'm wrong about this play. I'm a big Thomson fan and would like to see him go out (presumably) with a win against a top end opponent. Yes, Ferguson is top end. But after a year layoff and Thomson's inactivity level in recent fights, its hard to back Thomson against such a quality opponent. If this fight took place a year or two ago with the same odds, I'd be all over Thomson. With that all being said, El Cucuy should be able to use his size and length to win this fight. Dude is a beast and this fight will launch him into the top 10
Other bets (I will throw 0.25u on the following but wouldn't recommend them)
Reneau by Dec +525
Ildemar Alcantara -105
Andrew Craig by Dec +335
We need some 5unit POUND plays!!
Also Torn on the Ferg Fight....i also simply just cant bet on Mir....the night he won-every dog was hitting---epic night....wont be that epic tonight....he just lacks cardio and skills....bigfoot put his chin on a plate....cant think that will happen again....i mean---suprise me Mir...
I wish I had some for you, buddy. This card is filled with underperformers that I refuse to go big on. Be patient, they will come. I have my eye on one for Saturday but I need to research furtherOriginally Posted by BIGDAY
We need some 5unit POUND plays!!
I agree. But same goes for Duffee. Best bet is to take the under so you're not screwed by either fighter. More so you get better odds on Duffee this way since his chances of winning outside of the first round diminish significantly
Just to confirm this before the event starts, my smaller bets are all risking 0.25u,
Added play: Kevin Lee by Dec (+104) 0.96u
Coming in highly motivated for this fight, Lee has the perfect style to give Moonwalker problems. I think pretty highly of Moontasri (at least compared to the consensus) but all his flashy kicks will cost him here against the strong wrestler in Lee. A submission isn't too likely here because Moontasri trains at Black House with great BJJ practitioners. This is Lee's most likely means of winning the fight and avoids the juice you would have to pay by playing him straight (-250)
Have a feeling it will look like the Grave fight or the Jerod Sanders fight....boring as penetrate....but will leave with the W....UNLESS he gets KO's in the first 2 mins....i like Moontasri as well....smart and athletic....avoiding this fight personally and maybe a small play on moon....1st round will tell the tale..UPDATE---you talked me into it lol...after looking everything over--he is the playJust to confirm this before the event starts, my smaller bets are all risking 0.25u,
Added play: Kevin Lee by Dec (+104) 0.96u
Coming in highly motivated for this fight, Lee has the perfect style to give Moonwalker problems. I think pretty highly of Moontasri (at least compared to the consensus) but all his flashy kicks will cost him here against the strong wrestler in Lee. A submission isn't too likely here because Moontasri trains at Black House with great BJJ practitioners. This is Lee's most likely means of winning the fight and avoids the juice you would have to pay by playing him straight (-250
wish I had access to renaua by decision at those odds. sharp play. gl
Mir is way way more skilled than Duffee in ANY facet of MMA.
And what the hell does the other dogs hitting have anything to do with Mir hitting?
Nothing at all....just saying something was in the water that night....I totally agree he is more skilled but he is also 36 years old ....I actually think Duffee is going to roll him the more I think about it...that weak right jab is not going to put down 2 people in a row....just no way.....
He may be more skilled but when you're as fast as Duffee and fighting someone w the combination of a bad chin + being molasses slow, you'd feel pretty about your chances at touching that chin
The odds on Thomson are getting ridiculous. Even though I have a bet on Ferguson by Dec, I'm putting a half a unit down on Thomson +240.
UFN 71 Results
Mir/Duffee Wont Start Round 2 (-140) Risk: 1.4u Win
Ferguson by Decision (+170) Risk: 0.6u Win
Kevin Lee by Dec (+104) Risk: 0.96u Loss
Reneau by Dec +525 Risk:0.25u Loss
Ildemar Alcantara -105 Risk: 0.25u Loss
Andrew Craig by Dec +335 Risk: 0.25u Loss
Thomson +240 Risk: 0.5u Loss
Results: -0.21u
Obviously I say this in hindsight but I should have kept my prop plays to a minimum w limited wagers today. My two more confident bets hit (although, Ferguson was very close to finishing). Better card on Saturday = Better spots to clean up. Stay tuned
At least you bet the under. Way better bet if you wanted Toffee.
Last edited by mirinquads; 07-16-15 at 02:09 AM.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 72
I apologize in advance for not writing out my thoughts out like I did for the previous event. I'm leaving the house soon and the event is early tomorrow morning so I just dont have time. I was excited to have a big, 4 unit play however with further review, I tend to not like the play as much as I originally did. Two plays
Michael Bisping (-115) for 2.3u
(if you plan on betting Leites, i'd bet him ITD instead of straight because of much better odds and I frankly don't trust his cardio to outlast Bisping's. I full expect Bisping to win the decision if it goes there
Parlay: Joseph Duffy ITD (-260) + Leon Edwards (-340) = (-128) for 1.28u
Special Prop* Cortney Casey by Sub (+680) for 0.1u
She's got a nice armbar
Sorry, forgot one play
Jimmie Rivera (-130) for 1.3u
Added Play:
Vaughan Lee (+125) Risk: 0.8u
UFN 72 Results
Michael Bisping (-115) for 2.3u Win
Parlay: Joseph Duffy ITD (-260) + Leon Edwards (-340) = (-128) for 1.28u Win
Jimmie Rivera (-130) for 1.3u Win
Vaughan Lee (+125) Risk: 0.8u Loss
Cortney Casey by Sub (+680) for 0.1u Loss
Total: +3.1u
YTD: +3u
I originally wanted Bisping to be my 4u play but I didn't like how he was taking punches in his last fight against Dollawayoh well, guess I can't complain for a winning event
Edit: i calculated incorrectly
Last edited by MMA_Oracle; 07-18-15 at 04:01 PM.
Well done, hit all the big ones, keep it up.
Thank you. I wouldn't mind bouncing ideas off of each other leading up to next week's card. Let's kill these books
like the look and feel of this thread...
jul25/fox16: outstanding small buy to win 1u on Castillo over JimMiller available IF you have Bovada/Bodog +135 (-0.74u/+1u)
love books like Bodog/SportsInteraction with their occasional "sore thumb" prices like that...
when a super-sweet price appears u gotta auto-hit it like a whack-a-mole, when u see it...cuz sometimes it's just a temporary "$-balancing" special...regardless of your opinion on the fight...
a habit of hitting plays like this is like "eating spinach" for your bankroll...as it pays dividends over time...even tho' you very often don't really want to do it...as time goes by you're glad you developed the habit
also points out the value of having additional books at which you can shop, in addition to your "go to" book which for most is 5Dimes
Last edited by fitguy67; 07-19-15 at 10:34 PM.
Ill be honest w you, i dont fully commit to my bets until after weigh ins. I take them pretty seriously when capping a fight and look at how different a fighter may have looked in the past as well as whether it looks like they've had a tough weight cut. I personally bet half of my intended bet when the line drops then add more to it after weigh ins if i still feel as strongly. For instance, i wanted to make Bisping a 4u play so I put 2u on him as soon as the previous event ended. but after some review, i saw some aspects of the fight that I didnt like so i just kept the 2u on him. if i am unsure about a fight, i wont bet until after ive done research and after weigh ins. I may lose some value but im sure ive saved my ass plenty of times in the past
with that being said, i dont use Bodog but bestfightodds has Castillo as -115 at the moment. at the moment i favor Castillo but im not sure whether im going to play this fight. Castillo has strong wrestling and losing to Felder, Barbosa, and losing a split decision to Ferguson is nothing to be ashamed of. I might favor him here
update to the above, underlining how temporary many/most extra-sweet price "specials" can be...i actually hit it about 5 hours ago...when deciding to make my above post, i unfortunately was looking at a stale webpage from when i hit the play and mistakenly concluded it was still available...sorry 'bout dat
decided to leave the post as is, because of the point it makes about auto-hitting exceptionally out-of-whack prices when they appear, regardless of whether you "like" the play or not...
Interesting follow-up is that now Bodog is, in fact, sporting an extra-sweet price on the OTHER side...Miller -115, 20c better than dimey
a side benefit of hitting the sweet-price on WHATever side of a ticket WHENever/WHEREever you see it...is that, if the line swings sufficiently in your direction, you always have the option to just pocket the difference... such as now I can lock in the difference on my little Castillo +135 position and the current Miller-115...not a bad idea in situations such as now where my opinion on the fight hasn't yet solidified
risking 0.93u = {(stake+target)/decimal-odds} =1.74/1.87 determines the equal "green out" point
so, taking Miller-115 (-0.93/+0.81) means .07u is passively pocketed...and there's still plenty of time to take a real pre-fight position on the fight
____________
sorry for the de-rail...just something that popped up that others MAY find useful next time they inagdvertently catch a favorable line-swing...i'd never been really clear on exactly how to "green out" on a windfall and a shift from +135 to -115 on the other side within just a few hours forced me to sort out the arithmetic
Last edited by fitguy67; 07-19-15 at 11:31 PM.
Gomi worth a shot at +210 (pinnacle) -0.476u/+1u...
expect a rock'em sock'em robots hi-variance spectacle with these 2 guyz...and the 110% bonus payout on what feels like an "anything can happen" coin flip makes it irrestistible
I don't like betting Japs fighting in 'merica but this is Gomi and he only loses to top guyz...which Lauzon used to be...but all those F/POTN wars take their toll
Last edited by fitguy67; 07-21-15 at 09:39 AM.
I bet on Miller but a buddy of mine close to the Miller bros said his cardio is in question. I still like Miller though. Castillo is old for a LW Remember.
The more i watch tape on the fight, the more i want to pass on it. There are too many question marks in this fight. Gun to my head I pick Miller now but not betting on it. Good luck with your Miller bet
You don't have to be close to the Miller brothers to know that their cardio is in question. Jim gasses halfway through all his fights. If he can't find an early sub, he will get ground down.
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Gun to your head you pick miller? Well, then youre a dead man, because miller has been my ultimate fade material for a while now.
no chance in hell i bet on this fight outside of a prop
Barao/Dillashaw
I went on another thread talking about how insane it would be to back Dillashaw at current odds. Well, I think I'm gonna eat my crow now. I guess I remember the Barao/Gagnon fight going a lot differently than it actually did. Barao looks like a shell of what we're used to seeing from him. Maybe he is too big for this weight class like TJ suggested. Nonetheless, I apologize for making that comment before I had actually reviewed the fight. I favor TJ pretty heavily in this fight. I will probably be betting him straight with a hedge of Barao ITD (maybe TKO) as a hedge in case he lands something early
edit: but as initially intended, I will only be betting on this fight after weigh ins take place
I think I'm leaning towards throwing Cummings and Lauzon in a parlay together to pay around 78 cents to the dollar. The pay out is not great and it's a lazy/square bet but neither of these two should have any problems winning their respective fights. Other than the main event, Barboza/Felder, and Cruickshank/Krause, I fail to find value on this card that's worth betting on. However, I'm considering taking Lauzon by SUB instead of doing this parlay as a small prop bet if they odds are in the + (Lauzon itd is -150 currently, one can only hope Lauzon SUB will be evens or better)
Will confirm after line drops
Hey, new to betting but longtime hardcore mma fan. just wanted your opinion on this weekends fights. These are my bets
straight 1: cummings
parley 1: cummings + lauzon
parley 2: cummings + lauzon + barboza
what do you think? anything you would change?
What are your bets for this card oracle?
---------------
These were my bets for last card
parley 1: rivera + duffy
parley 2: rivera + duffy + calderwood
straight 1: bisping
First of all, just for transparency, I am probably going to be on Cummings, Lauzon, and most likely Barboza. With that being said, I dont like the idea of throwing fighters in multiple parlays like that. I actually don't like parlays other than to give value to an otherwise highly juiced fighter. For instance, you have great odds on Barboza as it is, instead of being somewhat greedy and throwing him in a parlay, I'd keep Cummings and Lauzon in a parlay and make a straight bet on Barboza separately. As a rule of thumb, I don't think i'd throw anyone with odds of -200 or below in a parlay instead of making a straight bet on them.
I'll be posting my plays after weigh ins on Friday. Hope that helps, good luck this weekend
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