1. #106
    JIBBBY
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    Good hit with the Texiera by sub win MMA oracle..

    I saw that early on in the week and wanted to hedge but I didn't... At +422 that was the most likely way Glover Tex was gonna win this fight... OSP simply didn't have Jits or wrestling to ward off Glovers submission attempts if the fight hit the ground.. So it played out that way...

  2. #107
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Good hit with the Texiera by sub win MMA oracle..

    I saw that early on in the week and wanted to hedge but I didn't... At +422 that was the most likely way Glover Tex was gonna win this fight... OSP simply didn't have Jits or wrestling to ward off Glovers submission attempts if the fight hit the ground.. So it played out that way...
    Thank you, it means a lot. Glover said that he wanted to take OSP down and submit him. At those odds, why not put something on it, right? My reasoning going into the fight is that OSP's strength and athleticism can win him a lot of fights against mid tier fighters and even against top fighters that are a bad match up. But against someone as well rounded and refined as Glover, he would need to have an amazing performance in order to win. Obviously he hurt Glover early but Glover is a tough SOB. I was really curious as to why Glover turned out to be the underdog. I hope you made out well yesterday and didn't get screwed by the Mj/Dariush decision. For the record, Dariush won me over as a fan for his post fight interview

  3. #108
    siefer
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    Jibby actually had money on dariush, haha, so he was definitely smiling after that decision was called out

  4. #109
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by siefer View Post
    Jibby actually had money on dariush, haha, so he was definitely smiling after that decision was called out
    The fight played out exactly as I thought it would, except for the decision of course. IDK if you guys think Castillo got robbed two weeks ago but I'm still a bit sour at that robbery too

  5. #110
    mirinquads
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_Oracle View Post
    The fight played out exactly as I thought it would, except for the decision of course. IDK if you guys think Castillo got robbed two weeks ago but I'm still a bit sour at that robbery too
    No robbery in that fight, and I was on Castillo. Saunders over Robertson was way more of a robbery that night.

  6. #111
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirinquads View Post
    No robbery in that fight, and I was on Castillo. Saunders over Robertson was way more of a robbery that night.
    I'm sorry I had a brain fart, I meant Nijem-Holbrook. Miller definitely beat Castillo

  7. #112
    fitguy67
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    ^^that was the night of the 2 hosings...Nijem and Holbrook both "strong" on the "wrong-ometer"...

    i was on both of'em...and Castillo, which could have "gone either way"...in the way that only "9 flips of a 10-9 coin" can

    next event ONLY one hosing (BD/MJ), but its a cat-5, meaning in the Sanchez-Pearson ballpark of injustice

  8. #113
    MMA_Oracle
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    Sorry for the absence, I didn't like too any plays last event and decided but take the event off except for two small bets. The only bets I made were on Magny by Dec (win ) and Cote by Dec (loss ). With that being said...


    Leans prior to the weigh ins (no bets yet):

    Dodson by TKO +600
    Mir by TKO +265
    Anderson +120
    Lineker -135

  9. #114
    UncleChael
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    Why Anderson? Dude got his teeth punched in last fight and couldn't check a leg kick to save his life.
    Lineker? Moving up in weight, the dude already sucks, fighting a much taller/bigger better fighter in Rivera.
    Mir? I watched JDS vs. Mir, that was enough.

  10. #115
    MMA_Oracle
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    Very slight lean on Anderson because I think he can make it a gritty fight. I might change my mind based on weigh ins. Rivera gets rocked by much lesser fighters than Lineker. Mir play is only based on odds. Are you telling me that Mir has less than a ~27% of knocking Arlovski out?

  11. #116
    UncleChael
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    It's his only chance? Based on odds Arlovski wins 3/4 times? Probably.

  12. #117
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    It's his only chance? Based on odds Arlovski wins 3/4 times? Probably.
    I can't agree that Arlovski wins the fight that often. He's shown that he's very capable of being knocked out and his defense is sloppy at times. But I take it you're making a big bet on Arlovski? if you think Arlovski wins the fight 75% of the time, then you think the odds should be -300 in his favor, which is a steal considering his odds are currently -150.

  13. #118
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_Oracle View Post


    Leans prior to the weigh ins (no bets yet):

    Dodson by TKO +600
    Mir by TKO +265
    Anderson +120
    Lineker -135
    I like your plays Oracle and on these as well if you do place them....

    I'm not on Cory Anderson but he has a chance..

  14. #119
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I like your plays Oracle and on these as well if you do place them....

    I'm not on Cory Anderson but he has a chance..
    Sounds good, bro ah now I have to go back and re-watch/reconsider that fight. Thanks for the input

  15. #120
    MMA_Oracle
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    UFC 191 Finalized Picks: I've switched sides on a couple of my initial leans; explanations in red

    Dodson wins in Round 1 (+1400) + Round 2 (+1700) Risk: 0.25u each
    Original lean was just to take Dodson by TKO but these props pay much better and I feel like if Dodson were to knock MM out, it wouldnt happen outside of the first two rounds

    Mir by TKO (+270) Risk: 2u
    I think these odds are ridiculous. Arlovski can definitely be knocked out if Mir lands a counter. Do I favor Arlovski? Sure. But the odds are too good to pass up

    Vanzant by TKO (+150) Risk: 1u
    Admittedly, probably the "squarest" bet I have tonight. I think the UFC is feeding Chambers to 12-gauge to make her look more impressive to build up her name to Ronda status

    Rivera (+115) Risk: 2u
    OK so the odds and the size difference seen at weigh-ins made me do a 180 on this fight. Add that to the fact that he tends to slow down and I think Rivera is a good bet at the current odds

    Pennington (+175) Risk: 0.5u

    Parlay: Rumble + Felder + Barnett (UFC FIGHT NIGHT 75). Odds = ~(+100) Risk: 2u
    LOL why not. Rumble and Felder should win convincingly tonight. I'll be able to nicely hedge on the last leg if need be

  16. #121
    JIBBBY
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    I'll try your Vanzant by KO prop at +150.. I just hit it for 50 bucks myself.. It's about the only play worth trying in that fight besides maybe the under 2.5 at -140.. She's a striker first so the KO prop seems like the most logical play... She's a -1500 favorite for a reason..

    UFC 191 - Strawweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
    Sat 9/5 1401 Alex Chambers +1000 o2½ +120
    10:00PM 1402 Paige VanZant -1500 u2½ -140


    You could be on to something about her hype build.. I normally don't like betting on the small girls to KO or finish but this one just might stick..

    GL

  17. #122
    MMA_Oracle
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    Added Play:

    Cory Anderson (+100) Risk: 2u
    Points Awarded:

    JIBBBY gave MMA_Oracle 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  18. #123
    MMA_Oracle
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'll try your Vanzant by KO prop at +150.. I just hit it for 50 bucks myself.. It's about the only play worth trying in that fight besides maybe the under 2.5 at -140.. She's a striker first so the KO prop seems like the most logical play... She's a -1500 favorite for a reason..

    UFC 191 - Strawweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
    Sat 9/5 1401 Alex Chambers +1000 o2½ +120
    10:00PM 1402 Paige VanZant -1500 u2½ -140


    You could be on to something about her hype build.. I normally don't like betting on the small girls to KO or finish but this one just might stick..

    GL
    Good luck!

  19. #124
    MMA_Oracle
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    Shame on you guys for trying to get me off of a bet on Anderson! thankfully i was still confident after my review

  20. #125
    UncleChael
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMA_Oracle View Post
    Shame on you guys for trying to get me off of a bet on Anderson! thankfully i was still confident after my review
    Anderson lives to fight another day.

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